Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the prices of finished steel products are showing a weak trend. Although it's the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, while the demand for hot-rolled coils still has some resilience. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [4]. - The price of iron ore is expected to continue its oscillatory trend. The short - term demand for iron ore is still supported, but the profit rate of steel mills is declining. It is necessary to observe the recovery of downstream demand and the speed of inventory reduction [7]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the trend of the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. If the market continues to discuss furnace - type elimination and other related topics, the price may rise further; otherwise, the weak fundamentals will limit the price increase. The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives, and attention should be paid to capacity integration policies and downstream price - passing progress [16][17]. - The price of glass has limited room for adjustment, and the market still has expectations for policy support. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term, but the improvement of downstream demand is slow, which will limit its upward space [19][20]. - Although the black - sector prices may experience short - term corrective risks due to the current real - demand situation, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black - sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions, and the key node may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (1.131%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3364 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.899%) from the previous trading day [3]. - **Market Conditions**: The export volume of steel has slightly rebounded but remains in a weak and oscillatory pattern. The apparent demand for rebar continues to be sluggish, with increasing inventory pressure. The output of hot - rolled coils has rebounded, with relatively good apparent demand and a slight reduction in inventory. The trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils are diverging [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.50% (+4.00). The weighted holding volume was 85.84 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.95 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.32% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments have significantly declined, and the near - end arrival volume has slightly decreased. The daily average pig - iron output has increased, and the short - term demand for iron ore is still supported. The profit rate of steel mills continues to decline, and both port and steel - mill imported ore inventories have slightly increased [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Prices**: On September 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.10% at 5832 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.32% at 5608 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal due to high supply and weak demand in the building materials sector. The supply - and - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers. Both are likely to follow the black - sector market [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8745 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.06% (+5). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 11051 hands to 487604 hands [14]. - **Market Conditions**: The production capacity of industrial silicon is in surplus, with high inventory and insufficient effective demand. Although the production of downstream polysilicon and silicone DMC has increased, the overall inventory is still at a high level [15][16]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 53610 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.19% (-100). The weighted contract holding volume decreased by 2557 hands to 301669 hands [16]. - **Market Conditions**: The price of polysilicon is more influenced by policy narratives. The overall inventory reduction space in the industry is limited, and the price is prone to fluctuations with changes in market sentiment [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Prices**: The spot price in Shahe was 1150 yuan, up 3 yuan from the previous day, and the spot price in Central China was 1110 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 146.7 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.33% month - on - month and 14.94% year - on - year [19]. - **Market Conditions**: The glass production has increased, but the inventory pressure has decreased. The downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly, but the market still has expectations for policy support [19]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Prices**: The spot price was 1197 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers decreased by 2.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.40% [20]. - **Market Conditions**: The downstream float - glass operating rate has increased, and the photovoltaic - glass operating rate has changed little. The soda - ash production is stable, and the inventory pressure has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and may gradually increase in the medium - to - long term [20].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities economist Hannah Liu anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will unanimously agree to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, but is unlikely to provide dovish guidance [1] Economic Indicators - The second quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data suggests that the RBA's previous concerns about inflation may have been somewhat overstated [1] - The average unemployment rate for the second quarter was 4.2%, but it slightly increased to 4.3% in June [1] Economic Activity - Recent economic activity data has shown improvement, indicating that the current rationale for the RBA's interest rate cut is more about the policy space provided by falling inflation rather than a need for continuous rate cuts due to economic weakness [1]

Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is boosting the Asian bond market, with Indonesian bonds positioned to be the biggest beneficiaries [1][4] - Indonesian benchmark government bond yields are close to 6.5%, making them one of the highest-yielding sovereign bonds in Asia, which enhances the attractiveness of Indonesian rupiah bonds [1] - The Indonesian central bank's focus on stabilizing the currency allows for further monetary easing without the concern of currency depreciation, especially in a weakening dollar environment [1][3] Group 2 - The correlation between the dollar and Indonesian 10-year government bond yields has reached its highest level since July 2024, indicating that a weaker dollar will support the appreciation of the rupiah and lower bond yields [3] - Indonesian 10-year government bond yields fell by 9 basis points, marking the largest decline in emerging Asia, following a drop in U.S. Treasury yields due to disappointing non-farm payroll data [3] - The current yield spread between Indonesian and U.S. 10-year government bonds is approximately 220 basis points, which is 1.1 standard deviations below the five-year average, indicating increased sensitivity of Indonesian bonds to U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations [3] Group 3 - The expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Indonesian central bank is anticipated to alleviate some concerns regarding fiscal deficits, with the central bank having already cut rates by 75 basis points this year [3] - GAMA's De Mello predicts that the Indonesian central bank will implement at least two more 25 basis point cuts by the end of the year, supported by the Federal Reserve's easing cycle [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, has stated that there is no intention to raise interest rates in order to create policy space [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan aims to maintain its current monetary policy stance to support economic recovery [1] - Ueda emphasized the importance of sustaining low interest rates to achieve stable inflation [1] - The central bank is focused on monitoring economic conditions before making any adjustments to its policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand indicates that there is still limited policy space to promote economic growth, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [1] Economic Policy - The central bank acknowledges the necessity for economic growth stimulation but emphasizes that the available policy tools are constrained [1] - The statement reflects a balancing act between supporting growth and managing inflationary pressures [1] Economic Outlook - The Bank of Thailand's comments suggest a careful monitoring of economic indicators to determine the timing and extent of any policy changes [1] - The limited policy space may impact future economic forecasts and investment strategies within the region [1]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) should only consider lowering interest rates below neutral levels if growth expectations in the Eurozone deteriorate significantly [1] - Excessive rate cuts could limit future policy options for the ECB [2]