智通财经APP获悉，周三，德国国债扩大涨幅。疲软的经济数据促使交易员增加了对降息的押注，抵消 了债务销售量激增带来的预期影响。 基准10年期德国国债正迈向自9月以来最大的三日连续涨幅，收益率维持在12月5日以来的最低水平附 近。30年期国债收益率已降至3.42%，而上个月曾触及14年来的高点。 低于预期的零售数据和通胀放缓的报告凸显了欧洲最大经济体所面临的挑战。货币市场增加了对降息的 押注，并将欧洲央行首次加息的时间推迟到了明年年初。而就在本周一，市场还预测加息可能在12月发 生。 杰富瑞国际首席经济学家兼策略师莫希特·库马尔引用该公司的自有指数表示，德国国债空头头寸的积 累"看起来有些过度"。他建议配置短期德国票据，其表现将优于长期美国国债。 德国国债收益率或将创下9月以来最大单日跌幅 周三发行的10年期德国新债获得了1.29倍的超额认购，显著低于前一次发行。然而，销售金额几乎翻了 一番，达到45亿欧元(53亿美元)。 今年发行规模的大幅提升可能会限制德国国债的上涨空间，尤其是长期品种。但周三的市场走势表明， 至少就目前而言，对经济疲软的担忧占据了主导地位。 "危急"状态 花旗银行的经济意外指数(衡量欧元区 ...

中新社柏林1月2日电 (杨楚瑜马秀秀)德国联邦统计局2日公布的数据显示，2025年德国就业人数约为 4600万，较2024年减少5000人。这是德国就业人数自2020年疫情以来首次下降。 据报道，除2020年受疫情影响外，德国就业人数自2006年以来持续增长，并于2024年达到自1990年以来 的最高水平。 从行业分布看，2025年德国就业形势呈现明显分化。其中，制造业就业人数大幅下降，减少14.3万人， 降至790万人。建筑业就业人数减少2.3万人，降至260万人。只有服务业就业人数实现增长，增加16.4万 人，总人数达到3490万人，占全部就业人数的75.9%。 在服务业内部，公共服务、教育和医疗卫生领域的增长尤为显著，合计增加20.5万人。此外，金融和保 险业就业人数增加1.6万人，其他服务业(包括协会和利益代表组织等)增加2.6万人，而对经济形势较为 敏感的企业服务业则出现了就业人数减少情况。 分析认为，除经济疲软外，人口结构变化带来的影响日益加剧也是2025年德国就业人数下降的原因。随 着大量婴儿潮一代逐步退出劳动市场，能够接替他们的年轻劳动力却越来越少。除此之外，外国劳动力 净流入以及本国人口劳动 ...

据泰国《民族报》报道，民主党将于22日宣布其在曼谷选区的33名候选人，并计划于25日在全国范围内 推出候选人。该党的目标是在曼谷选区获得10个下议院席位。自豪泰党发言人本缇达表示，该党尚未作 出总理候选人推举的最终决定，现看守政府财政部长埃尼提和商业部长素帕姬仍在考虑范围内。 【环球时报驻泰国特派记者 杨一 环球时报特约记者 陆润】据泰国《曼谷邮报》17日报道，为泰党16日 公布了3名总理候选人，前总理他信的外甥裕差南·翁沙瓦在列。为泰党党首朱拉汶表示，如果该党赢得 2026年2月8日举行的大选，裕差南将是为泰党总理候选人的首选。另两名候选人为朱拉汶和前任交通部 长素里亚。 裕差南现年46岁，其父是泰国前总理颂猜，母亲是他信的妹妹瑶瓦帕。自他信创立泰爱泰党（为泰党前 身）以来，裕差南一直鞍前马后辅佐。上一任总理佩通坦执政期间，裕差南曾被任命为数字政府发展办 公室董事会专家成员。 目前，泰国面临政局动荡、经济疲软、泰柬边境冲突等诸多挑战。据《曼谷邮报》报道，泰国央行17日 再次下调基准利率至1.25%，这是泰国央行自2024年10月以来的第五次降息。泰国国家经济和社会发展 委员会预测，明年泰国国内生产总值增长将 ...

与此同时，航空业的表现也成为观察重点。国际航空运输协会数据显示，虽然2026年全球航司总净利润 预计达到410亿美元，但行业利润率仅为3.9%。航空需求的变化往往与经济周期密切相关，如果拉斯维 加斯之后航空需求开始下降，将为经济疲软的扩散提供更清晰的证据。 高盛近期向客户发出重要提醒，指出拉斯维加斯在2008年金融危机爆发前的表现模式正在重现。这一观 察引发了市场对当前经济状况的深度关注。 据悉，在2008年金融危机全面爆发之前，拉斯维加斯地区经济率先出现了显著的衰退迹象。这座以娱乐 和旅游为支柱产业的城市，其经济表现往往能够反映出消费者支出和整体经济活力的变化趋势。当时的 情况显示，拉斯维加斯的经济下滑为后续全球金融危机的到来提供了重要的预警信号。 目前的市场环境中，拉斯维加斯再次呈现出类似的经济疲软态势。旅游业收入出现明显下降，酒店入住 率持续走低，赌场营收也面临压力。这些指标的恶化程度与2008年危机前的状况存在相似性，引起了金 融机构的高度警觉。 市场分析显示，拉斯维加斯作为消费支出的重要指标，其经济表现具有较强的前瞻性。该地区经济活动 的收缩可能预示着更广泛的经济调整即将到来。投资者和政策制定者正密 ...

德国10月工厂订单激增，支持欧洲最大经济体在今年最后一个季度或能勉力实现增长的前景。 德国联邦统计局周五公布，当月需求环比增长1.5%，9月数据被大幅上修为增长2%。这一增幅远高于调 查所得的预估中值0.3%。 统计局表示，改善主要得益于大额订单的推动，尤其是包括飞机、船舶、火车和军用车辆在内的运输类 别订单增长了87%。 推荐阅读：德国经济"自由落体" 总理默茨执政联盟深陷生存危机 工业部门的复苏被视为战胜经济疲软的关键，2023年和2024年德国国内生产总值（GDP）均出现萎缩。 德国面临的困境源于美国加征关税、竞争加剧以及长期存在的官僚主义等深层次问题。 统计局表示，改善主要得益于大额订单的推动，尤其是包括飞机、船舶、火车和军用车辆在内的运输类 别订单增长了87%。 工业部门的复苏被视为战胜经济疲软的关键，2023年和2024年德国国内生产总值（GDP）均出现萎缩。 德国面临的困境源于美国加征关税、竞争加剧以及长期存在的官僚主义等深层次问题。 推荐阅读：德国经济"自由落体" 总理默茨执政联盟深陷生存危机 责任编辑：刘明亮 责任编辑：刘明亮 德国10月工厂订单激增，支持欧洲最大经济体在今年最后一个季度或能 ...

张尧浠：美联储降息预期持续升温、金价多头仍蓄力待发 上交易日周二(11月25日)：国际黄金震荡十字收平，多头动力减弱，暗示有一定的回落走低预期，但下方均线支撑众多，基本面也缺乏明显且持续的利空 压力，故此，如有回落，下方空间也是有限，关注下方中轨线等支撑位置，也是先行看涨为主。 日内将关注美国至11月22日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国9月耐用品订单月率等，整体预期好坏参半，将对金价产生震荡波动，并且还将关注美联储 公布经济状况褐皮书，根据上一次公布的观点和美国政府停摆造成的影响来看，大概率将显示经济疲软等等，而会支持金价，故此，日内金价的回落，也 可视为入场看涨机会。 同时美联储米兰还表示经济需要大幅降息，失业率上升是因为货币政策过于紧缩。贝森特也透露，特朗普在圣诞节前宣布新任主席人选的可能性非常大。 消息称哈塞特在五位候选人中脱颖而出，亦有报道称尚无领跑者。将令市场预期更加鸽派的前景将很快到来，而会助力金价多头爆发。 所以，在低利率环境和经济不确定性加剧的背景下，黄金前景上，仍是在酝酿新一轮牛市行情。短期回调都是低吸机会。历史也告诉我们，每一次在降息 周期中的回调，最终都成了上车的最好机会。 具体走势上 ...

Group 1 - The business failure rate in Canada increased by 0.3 percentage points to 5.0% in July, reversing the previous month's decline, while the business opening rate remained stable at 5.0% [1] - There is a significant structural divide in business activity, with industries heavily reliant on U.S. demand experiencing a sharp contraction, particularly in mining, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing, which saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [1] - The recent announcement by U.S. President Trump to impose an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods has heightened tensions in the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, which is the largest bilateral trade relationship globally [1] Group 2 - The market widely anticipates that the Bank of Canada will lower its policy interest rate this week due to overall economic weakness, although core inflation's stickiness may complicate the decision [2] - Some analysts, like RSM's chief economist Joe Brusuelas, predict that the Bank of Canada will maintain the current policy rate at 2.5%, citing core CPI hovering around 3% [2] - Canadian National Bank's wealth management economist Ethan Currie expects a 25 basis point rate cut to 2.25% this week, with another cut to 2.0% in December, indicating a need for a moderately accommodative policy stance due to accumulated economic weakness [3]

Core Viewpoint - SAP SE's third-quarter cloud revenue fell short of analyst expectations, indicating that trade disputes and economic weakness are impacting sales [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted cloud revenue for Q3 was €5.29 billion (approximately $6.1 billion), below the market expectation of €5.33 billion, with a year-over-year growth rate of 22%, marking the slowest growth since Q4 2023 [1] - Overall revenue grew by 7% to €9.08 billion (approximately $10.59 billion), also missing analyst expectations of €9.17 billion [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit increased by 14% to €2.57 billion, slightly above the expected €2.55 billion [1] - Free cash flow available for dividends grew by 5% to €1.27 billion [1] Strategic Insights - The company is undergoing a strategic transformation under CEO Christian Klein, shifting from traditional software licensing to subscription services, with a focus on cloud business sales [1] - CFO Dominik Asam noted that despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment, the company maintains a growth momentum [1] Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, SAP's American Depositary Receipts (ADR) fell by approximately 6% in after-hours trading, although the stock price in Frankfurt has remained relatively stable throughout the year [2] Future Outlook - SAP updated its 2025 cloud revenue forecast, expecting it to approach the lower end of the previous range of €21.6 billion to €21.9 billion, indicating a projected growth of 26% [2] - The company anticipates adjusted profits to be at the upper end of the previously set range of €10.3 billion to €10.6 billion, with free cash flow expected to reach €8 billion to €8.2 billion, exceeding earlier expectations of around €8 billion [2] Industry Context - Analysts, including Derrick Wood from TD Cowen, noted that some transactions in Q3 were delayed due to "tariff turmoil," particularly affecting the manufacturing customer segment [2] - Analysis of U.S. government activities indicated a decrease in SAP's order volume in Q3, with cuts in government spending impacting business [2]

Group 1 - Canada has reduced tariffs on certain steel and aluminum products imported from China and the U.S. to alleviate domestic pressure [1] - The Canadian government has provided exemptions to several companies to avoid the costs of retaliatory tariffs on products that are in short supply or needed under existing contracts [1] - The new exemption measures aim to protect workers and families from the impact of retaliatory measures, particularly in downstream industries [1] Group 2 - China's response to Canada's tariff reductions includes anti-dumping investigations and increased tariffs on Canadian canola seeds, canola oil, seafood, and pork, putting pressure on Canada's agricultural sector [2] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney has sent officials to China for exploratory talks, indicating an effort to repair relations, although challenges remain in persuading China to lift measures against Canadian canola [2] - There is a growing pessimism regarding economic growth in Canada, with over half of Canadians believing the economy will weaken in the next six months, and reports of significant layoffs due to tariffs [2]

Group 1 - The UK economy is currently operating below its potential level, with concerns over a weakening labor market and high inflation, leading to uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the UK will experience the fastest rising inflation rate among the G7 countries over the next two years, with current inflation nearly double the target level [1][2] - The unemployment rate in the UK has risen to its highest level since 2021, reaching 4.8%, which has contributed to market expectations of a 35% chance of a rate cut in December [3] Group 2 - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, plans to promote "economic stability" during her visit to Washington, emphasizing fiscal prudence and the creation of favorable conditions for productivity and investment [2] - The IMF has called for caution regarding further interest rate cuts, warning that rising wage pressures and household inflation expectations could pose new upward risks to inflation [3] - Bank of England Governor Bailey acknowledged that while high inflation remains a threat, economic weakness may suppress price increases in the future [3]