新华财经北京8月12日电野村证券经济学家Hannah Liu表示，预计澳洲联储今日将一致同意降息25个基 点，但不太可能提供鸽派指引。澳洲联储可能会重申其"谨慎和渐进"的进一步宽松政策。 二季度CPI数据表明，澳洲联储此前对通胀的担忧略显过度。虽然二季度失业率均值为4.2%，但6月已 微升至4.3%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 近期经济活动数据表现向好，这提醒市场：对澳洲联储而言，当前降息逻辑更多是基于通胀回落提供的 政策空间，而非经济疲软需要连续降息。 ...

美联储哈玛克：如果美联储看到经济疲软，毫无疑问会做出回应。 ...

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to face a decline in the second half of the year due to ongoing interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and a weak local economy, with forecasts suggesting a peak at 62 cents against the US dollar by year-end [1] - Kiwibank predicts that if the RBNZ lowers borrowing costs, the NZD could drop to 60 cents [1] - Despite signs of stabilization in the New Zealand economy, the recovery remains in its early stages, with a persistently weak job market [1] Group 2 - The NZD has appreciated approximately 9% against the US dollar in the first half of 2025, driven by a general weakness in the US dollar, but its performance lags behind most G10 currencies [1] - Brown Brothers Harriman's senior strategist Elias Haddad suggests that if US fiscal concerns worsen and political pressure leads to Federal Reserve rate cuts, the NZD could rise to 64 cents by December [2] - Seasonal trends indicate that the NZD typically enters a weak period in the third quarter, with an average decline of about 2.1% against the US dollar over the past decade [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces increasing risks of inflation remaining below target due to economic weakness in the second quarter [1] Group 1 - The risk of inflation being below the target is greater than the risk of it being above the target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member, Centeno, indicates that the economic weakness in the second quarter may exacerbate the risk of inflation being too low, suggesting that the risk of inflation falling below expectations is greater than the risk of it exceeding expectations [1] Economic Outlook - The second quarter is characterized by economic weakness, which could lead to lower inflation rates [1] - The risks associated with inflation being lower than anticipated are emphasized as more significant than those of inflation being higher than expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, indicates that the direction of interest rates is downward [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Current inflation is entirely driven by administrative pricing factors [1] - Signs of weakness are emerging in the economy and labor market [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Impact - It is too early to assess the impact of tariffs and trade policies on prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that uncertainty and weak demand are impacting corporate investment in the UK [1] - Recent signs of economic weakness have become more pronounced [1] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring the situation regarding the rebound of inflation in the UK [1] - Rising food inflation has been added to the Bank's list of concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hungarian Ministry of Economic Affairs indicates that the economic weakness is primarily driven by insufficient investment and exports [1] Group 1 - The lack of investment is a significant factor contributing to the economic downturn [1] - Export deficiencies are also highlighted as a critical issue affecting the economy [1]

加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：经济表现较为疲软，但并未出现明显的急剧下滑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Australia's economy showed weaker-than-expected performance in the first quarter, reinforcing expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia to adopt a dovish stance and further ease monetary policy [1] Economic Performance - Australia's GDP growth in the first quarter was only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4% [1] - The annual growth rate was reported at 1.3%, compared to the anticipated 1.5% [1] Market Expectations - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in July is close to 90%, an increase from approximately 70% the previous day [1] - Financial traders expect the cash rate to be around 3.1% by the end of the year [1]