尽管加拿大已取消报复性关税，但央行仍担心全球贸易格局重组将导致效率下降和成本上升，而美国对 进口商品的关税也可能通过转运环节传导至加拿大，带来更高的物价压力。 纪要显示，央行管理委员会曾考虑将利率维持在2.75%，但最终因多重因素选择降息，其中包括就业市 场走弱、核心通胀上行压力缓解，以及总理卡尼决定取消对数十亿美元美国商品的报复性关税。数据显 示，加拿大第二季度经济收缩1.6%，出口大幅下滑27%；劳动力市场同样承压，8月失业率升至7.1%，7 月和8月就业合计减少10万个岗位。 央行管理委员会成员还指出，美国关税正引发需求和供给的结构性变化，使得经济闲置产能的评估更加 复杂。若美国贸易政策不确定性持续，不仅可能进一步削弱就业市场，还会打击企业投资。与此同时， 随着明年《美加墨协定》审议临近，外部不确定性料将继续存在。会议还提到，加拿大人口增速放缓将 成为拖累未来经济增长的另一因素。 智通财经APP获悉，加拿大央行周三公布的最新会议纪要显示，决策者认为加拿大经济面临的通胀风险 有所减弱，但尚未完全消除。 纪要指出，尽管上行风险已经降低，贸易摩擦带来的额外成本仍存在不确定性，包括这些成本何时、何 地以及在多大 ...

Economic Outlook - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects higher inflation and unemployment with slowing economic growth for the year [1] - The anticipated population growth due to immigration is expected to be significantly lower, impacting labor supply [2][4] - The reconciliation bill is boosting the economy, while tariffs are raising inflation and slowing down economic growth [3][6] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor demand is decreasing as the economy weakens, while labor supply is also falling dramatically, leading to a complex jobs market [4][6] - The population numbers are projected to be several hundred thousand fewer each year over the next decade, with a million fewer this year alone [4][5] Tariff Impacts - Tariffs are contributing to higher inflation and are expected to reduce the deficit by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, with $3.3 trillion in revenue and $700 billion in averted debt costs [10][11] - The CBO follows the administration's policies closely, adjusting forecasts based on current laws and tariffs [9][18] Inflation and Economic Assumptions - Inflation has come in higher than CBO's expectations, attributed to the impact of tariffs, despite a weakening economy [20][21] - The CBO updates its forecasts a few times a year, with the latest adjustments reflecting higher inflation than previously anticipated [20][22]

Group 1 - The latest employment report in the US was weaker than expected, leading Wall Street to believe that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this month [1][3] - The non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added last month, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest point in nearly four years, indicating a cooling labor market [3][4] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with expectations of a total reduction of 68 basis points by the end of the year [3] Group 2 - The 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields fell for the third consecutive week, reflecting market assessments of a potential 50 basis point rate cut [4] - Concerns about consumer purchasing power due to tariffs and job security are increasing, as indicated by the weak employment report [4][6] - The upcoming consumer price index (CPI) data is expected to show a 0.3% increase, which may not hinder the Fed's decision to cut rates [5] Group 3 - Major US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 reaching a historical high before a sell-off occurred [6] - The communication services sector led gains with a 5.1% increase, while the energy sector fell by 3.5% due to declining oil prices [6] - Small-cap stocks are expected to benefit from the anticipated rate cuts, with significant buying activity observed in small-cap stocks and ETFs [7]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities economist Hannah Liu anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will unanimously agree to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, but is unlikely to provide dovish guidance [1] Economic Indicators - The second quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data suggests that the RBA's previous concerns about inflation may have been somewhat overstated [1] - The average unemployment rate for the second quarter was 4.2%, but it slightly increased to 4.3% in June [1] Economic Activity - Recent economic activity data has shown improvement, indicating that the current rationale for the RBA's interest rate cut is more about the policy space provided by falling inflation rather than a need for continuous rate cuts due to economic weakness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada's Governor Macklem stated that while the economy is weak, it is not in a severe state [1] Economic Conditions - The Canadian economy is experiencing a slowdown, but the situation is not critical [1] - There are signs of resilience in certain sectors, indicating potential for recovery [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The central bank may need to adjust its monetary policy in response to the current economic conditions [1] - Interest rates could be influenced by the ongoing economic performance and inflation trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Harker, indicates that it will respond decisively if economic weakness is observed [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic indicators and is prepared to take action if signs of economic fatigue emerge [1]

Group 1 - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to face a decline in the second half of the year due to ongoing interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and a weak local economy, with forecasts suggesting a peak at 62 cents against the US dollar by year-end [1] - Kiwibank predicts that if the RBNZ lowers borrowing costs, the NZD could drop to 60 cents [1] - Despite signs of stabilization in the New Zealand economy, the recovery remains in its early stages, with a persistently weak job market [1] Group 2 - The NZD has appreciated approximately 9% against the US dollar in the first half of 2025, driven by a general weakness in the US dollar, but its performance lags behind most G10 currencies [1] - Brown Brothers Harriman's senior strategist Elias Haddad suggests that if US fiscal concerns worsen and political pressure leads to Federal Reserve rate cuts, the NZD could rise to 64 cents by December [2] - Seasonal trends indicate that the NZD typically enters a weak period in the third quarter, with an average decline of about 2.1% against the US dollar over the past decade [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces increasing risks of inflation remaining below target due to economic weakness in the second quarter [1] Group 1 - The risk of inflation being below the target is greater than the risk of it being above the target [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member, Centeno, indicates that the economic weakness in the second quarter may exacerbate the risk of inflation being too low, suggesting that the risk of inflation falling below expectations is greater than the risk of it exceeding expectations [1] Economic Outlook - The second quarter is characterized by economic weakness, which could lead to lower inflation rates [1] - The risks associated with inflation being lower than anticipated are emphasized as more significant than those of inflation being higher than expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Bailey, indicates that the direction of interest rates is downward [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Current inflation is entirely driven by administrative pricing factors [1] - Signs of weakness are emerging in the economy and labor market [1] Group 2: Trade Policy Impact - It is too early to assess the impact of tariffs and trade policies on prices [1]