Consumption - In November, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, significantly below the expected 2.9%[1][7] - Retail sales of goods fell sharply, with categories like gold and jewelry down 29.1% to 8.5%, and home appliances down 4.8% to -19.4%[2][8] - Service retail sales showed positive performance, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 5.4%[2][8] Investment - Fixed asset investment in November recorded a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, but this was an improvement of 2.1 percentage points from October[3][39] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9 percentage points to -6.7%, supported by new special bonds and policy financial tools[3][17] - Manufacturing investment rose by 4.3 percentage points to -3.6%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors[3][41] Real Estate - Real estate development investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with a significant drop of 6.9 percentage points to -29.9% in November[2][43] - New construction and completion rates remained in negative growth, with new starts down 27.7% and completions down 25.4%[2][43] - Despite falling prices, the sales area of commercial housing increased by 7.7 percentage points to -17.9%[2][43] Production - Industrial added value maintained a growth rate of 4.8% in November, only slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[3][26] - The production of food and beverages saw significant recovery, with growth rates of 5.6% and -0.6% respectively[3][26] - The automotive sector experienced a notable decline, with production down 4.9 percentage points to 11.9%[3][26] Policy Implications - The economic structure is increasingly differentiated during the policy transition, with a shift from goods consumption to service consumption[4][31] - The government's focus on "new investment" areas is beginning to show positive effects, with overall investment expected to stabilize in the future[4][31] - Risks remain from external environmental changes and the pace of growth policy implementation may not meet expectations[5][50]

Economic Data - In November, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, worse than the expected -2.2% and the previous -1.7%[1] - Real estate development investment fell by 15.9% year-on-year, compared to an expectation of -15.4% and a previous value of -14.7%[1] - Industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous 4.9%[1] Consumption Trends - Consumption policies have shifted focus from goods to services, with social retail sales slowing down while service retail sales increased by 5.4% year-on-year[2] - The decline in retail sales was influenced by the fading effect of e-commerce promotions and a downturn in demand for home appliances, automobiles, and furniture[2] - Service consumption remained resilient, with restaurant income showing a slight decline but overall service retail growth improving[2] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment saw a marginal recovery, with a month-on-month increase of 2.1 percentage points to -10.1%, marking the first rebound since Q2[3] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9 percentage points to -6.7%, supported by new special bonds and policy financial tools[3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 4.3 percentage points to -3.6%, while service sector investment increased by 0.6 percentage points to -12.3%[3] Real Estate Sector - Real estate financing weakened significantly, with credit financing growth dropping by 11.5 percentage points to -25.3%, leading to a sharp decline in real estate investment growth to -29.9%[4] - New construction and completion rates remained in negative growth territory, with new starts down by 27.7% and completions down by 25.4%[4] - Despite falling prices, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing increased by 7.7 percentage points and 2.8 percentage points, respectively[4]

Core Viewpoint - Economic differentiation reveals clues about policy transformation, as "old indicators" overlook "new changes" in the economy [2][4][89] Consumption - Consumption policies are shifting from goods to services, leading to a decline in social retail sales while service retail shows strength. The social retail sales growth fell to 1.3%, driven by a decline in retail growth for goods such as home appliances and automobiles [2][8][68] - Service consumption remains positive, with total service retail sales increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in restaurant income [2][4][8] Real Estate - Real estate financing weakened due to credit risks from certain property companies, causing a significant drop in investment. In November, self-raised funds for property companies decreased, leading to a 25.3% decline in credit financing growth [2][12][63] - Real estate investment growth fell to -29.9%, with new construction and completion rates also showing significant negative growth [2][12][63] Investment - Recent policy measures have alleviated the "crowding out effect" of debt repayment on investment, with fixed asset investment showing a month-on-month rebound of 2.1% to -10.1% [3][22][88] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9% to -6.7%, while manufacturing and service sector investments also saw slight recoveries [3][22][88] Production - Industrial production maintained resilience, with industrial value-added growth stabilizing at 4.8%. The easing of workday effects and previous high inventory levels contributed to this stability [3][33][42] - Certain downstream industries, such as food and textiles, experienced significant production growth, while the automotive sector saw a decline [3][33][42] Summary - The economic structure is increasingly differentiated during the policy transformation process, but the positive effects of policies on the economy are becoming evident. Consumption policies are transitioning towards services, and while indicators for goods consumption are declining, service retail growth is rising [4][89][90] - Investment policies are focusing on "new investment" areas, with signs of improvement in new infrastructure and service sector investments, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [4][89][90]