经济数据 2025 年 12 月 15 日 11 月经济: 从"分化" 看 —11 月经济数据点评 事件: 11 月 , 社零当月同比 1.3%、预期 2.9%、前值 2.9% ; 固定资产投资累计同比-2.6%、 预期-2.2%、前值-1.7%；房地产开发投资累计同比-15.9%、预期-15.4%、前值-14.7%; 工业增加值当月同比 4.8%、预期 5%、前值 4.9%。 核心观点：经济分化背后隐藏政策转型线索，"旧指标"忽视了经济"新变化"。 ● 消费：促消费政策从商品转向服务，社会消费品零售走弱、但服务零售走强。电商促销前 置效应消退，金银珠宝、日用品等零售增速下行；国补退坡叠加需求透支效应影响下，家 电、汽车和家具等以旧换新类商品消费走弱，共同拖累社零增速下行至 1.3%；服务消费 表现积极，虽然占比较小的餐饮收入偏弱，但全口径服务零售额累计同比上行至 5.4%。 地产:受个别房企信用风险影响,地产融资走弱拖累投资加速下行。11 月,房企自筹资 金明显走弱，拖累房企信用融资增速大幅下行 11.5pct 至-25.3%，相应拖累地产投资增 速（-6.9pct 至-29.9%）大幅下行，新开工（-27 ...

事件： 11月，社零当月同比1.3%、预期2.9%、前值2.9%；固定资产投资累计同比-2.6%、预期-2.2%、前 值-1.7%；房地产开发投资累计同比-15.9%、预期-15.4%、前值-14.7%；工业增加值当月同比4.8%、预期 5%、前值4.9%。 核心观点：经济分化背后隐藏政策转型线索，"旧指标"忽视了经济"新变化"。 消费：促消费政策从商品转向服务，社会消费品零售走弱、但服务零售走强。 电商促销前置效应消退， 金银珠宝、日用品等零售增速下行；国补退坡叠加需求透支效应影响下，家电、汽车和家具等以旧换新 类商品消费走弱，共同拖累社零增速下行至1.3%；服务消费表现积极，虽然占比较小的餐饮收入偏弱， 但全口径服务零售额累计同比上行至5.4%。 地产：受个别房企信用风险影响，地产融资走弱拖累投资加速下行。 11月，房企自筹资金明显走弱，拖 累房企信用融资增速大幅下行11.5pct至-25.3%，相应拖累地产投资增速（-6.9pct至-29.9%）大幅下行，新 开工（-27.7%）、竣工（-25.4%）仍维持较深负增长区间。销售端，房价仍在下滑，商品房销售面积、 销售金额分别回升7.7pct、2.8pct ...

从先行指标来看，随着稳增长政策不断落地见效，以及10月末中美经贸会谈取得积极成果，国家统计局 近日发布的11月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）亦呈改善趋势，49.2%的数值比10月提升0.2个百分 点，但已连续8个月位于荣枯线之下。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，11月份制造业PMI指数小幅回升，表明市场信心有所改 善。"十五五"发展目标鼓舞人心，对市场信心产生积极影响。同时也要注意到制造业PMI指数仍处于荣 枯线之下，市场引导的需求收缩仍比较突出，经济仍有下行压力。 产业升级将创造新的发展空间，超大规模市场需求将加快释放。 三季度以来，受内需疲弱、外部不确定性加大等因素影响，中国多项宏观经济指标增速出现波动。而随 着存量政策与增量政策协同发力、外需维持韧性等因素影响，11月工业生产、消费等主要经济指标或迎 来企稳。 国务院总理李强12月9日同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会。李强表示，今年中国经济顶压 前行，取得新的发展成绩，我们有信心有能力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。中国经济将保持稳健向 好势头，经济总量将再上新台阶，产业升级将创造新的发展空间，超大规模市场需求将加快释放。 国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of fiscal and financial policies to stimulate investment, particularly in infrastructure and high-tech sectors, despite a slight decline in overall investment growth in the first three quarters of the year [1][2]. Investment Growth and Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 371.535 billion yuan in the first three quarters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, primarily due to the impact of real estate development investment [2]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 4.0% year-on-year, although this represents a decline of 1.1 percentage points compared to previous periods [2]. - Equipment purchase investment maintained a growth rate of over 10%, with a year-on-year increase of 14.0% in the first three quarters, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall investment growth [2][5]. Policy Support and Financial Tools - The newly established policy financial tools have already allocated nearly 300 billion yuan, with expectations to drive total project investments of approximately 2.8 trillion yuan [5]. - The central government has arranged an additional 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support debt resolution and major project construction [6][5]. Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, contributing 0.2 percentage points to overall investment growth, with private investment in infrastructure increasing by 7.0% [2][3]. - Local governments are accelerating major project construction, with significant investments in transportation and public facilities [7][8]. Future Outlook - Investment growth is expected to rely more on new productive forces and addressing social welfare gaps, with a stabilization and potential recovery anticipated in the fourth quarter [3][4]. - Measures to enhance private investment participation in major projects are being developed, including support for private investment in key sectors like railways and nuclear power [8].

Core Viewpoint - Future investment growth will rely more on the dual drive of new productive forces and addressing livelihood shortfalls [1][3] Investment Overview - In the first three quarters, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 371.535 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, primarily affected by real estate development investment [2] - Excluding real estate, project investment grew by 3.0% year-on-year [2] - Manufacturing investment increased by 4.0%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points [2] - Equipment purchase investment maintained a growth rate above 10%, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [2] Policy Support - The government has intensified investment stabilization policies, with new policy financial tools amounting to 500 billion introduced to support effective investment [4][5] - As of October 17, the newly established policy financial tool companies have invested nearly 300 billion, expected to drive total project investment of 2.8 trillion [5] - The central government allocated an additional 500 billion from local government debt limits to support debt repayment and major project construction [6] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing 0.2 percentage points to overall investment growth [2] - Private investment in infrastructure increased by 7.0%, accounting for 20.0% of total infrastructure investment [2] Local Government Initiatives - Local governments are accelerating major project construction, with significant investments in various regions [7] - For example, Jiangsu province has 228 major projects funded by private enterprises, with planned investments of 150 billion [7] - Hebei province is developing measures to support private enterprises in participating in major projects, including establishing a project library for private investment [8] Future Outlook - Investment is expected to stabilize and rebound in the fourth quarter, contributing to GDP through improved supply structure [3] - The focus will be on enhancing the quality of economic circulation and addressing livelihood needs through targeted investments [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights positive signals from two major economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics, indicating resilience in China's economy during its transformation [1][2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned from flat to rising month-on-month, with the core CPI returning to a year-on-year increase of 1% after 19 months, reflecting a recovery in domestic demand [2][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a narrowing year-on-year decline, further validating the steady recovery of domestic demand [4] Group 2 - Demand is a key driver of the economy, with the CPI reflecting consumer-related price changes. The core CPI's continuous increase over five months indicates a healthy growth in total demand [3][5] - The PPI's performance is closely tied to the strength of demand, with improvements in market competition and price stabilization in certain industries, indicating a recovery in supply-side activity [4][5] - The overall economic growth in China is supported by coordinated efforts across consumption recovery, stable investment, and resilient foreign trade, suggesting a more robust foundation for future growth [5]