1.1月9日(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨004%，标普500指数期货涨0.11%，纳指期货涨0.20%。 | ■ US 30 | 49,283.30 | 49,354.80 | 49,215.70 | +17.60 | +0.04% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ US 500 | 6,929.00 | 6,932.30 | 6,913.00 | +7.60 | +0.11% | | ■ US Tech 100 | 25,559.30 | 25,585.70 | 25,446.70 | +52.20 | +0.20% | 市场消息 非农+关税裁决"双核爆点"!华尔街迎接今年以来最危险的一天。2026年开年美股强劲但估值已达历史高位(市盈率超22倍)，正面临关键转 折点。北京时间周五晚，市场将迎来美国12月非农报告及最高法院对特朗普关税政策合法性裁决的双重考验，投资者警惕高估值下的市 场波动风险。最高法院官网显示，周五为"判决日"，意味着法官们在美东时间上午10点开庭后，可能会宣布裁决结果。 降息预期已然"锚定"!高盛：非农 ...

稳定币交易量去年达到前所未有的规模，受益于支持加密货币的特朗普在美国推行的有利政策。 根据Artemis Analytics Inc．汇编的数据，2025年稳定币交易总量飙升72%，达到33万亿美元。其中交易 量最大的是Circle Internet Group Inc．开发的数字美元USDC，达18.3万亿美元，Tether Holdings SA的 USDT交易额为13.3万亿美元。 责任编辑：王永生 稳定币交易量去年达到前所未有的规模，受益于支持加密货币的特朗普在美国推行的有利政策。 根据Artemis Analytics Inc．汇编的数据，2025年稳定币交易总量飙升72%，达到33万亿美元。其中交易 量最大的是Circle Internet Group Inc．开发的数字美元USDC，达18.3万亿美元，Tether Holdings SA的 USDT交易额为13.3万亿美元。 稳定币是锚定主流资产价格的加密货币，通常是美元。特朗普政府积极拥抱这一技术，并在7月通过了 相关立法。机构因此更广泛地采用这项技术，包括渣打、沃尔玛和亚马逊等巨头在研究发行稳定币。特 朗普家族旗下的加密货币企业World ...

智通财经APP获悉，在对加密货币持支持立场的特朗普政府的领导下，美国出台的有利政策推动去年稳 定币交易量攀升至前所未有的高度。根据Artemis Analytics汇编的数据，2025年稳定币交易总量同比大 增72%，达到33万亿美元。其中，Circle Internet Group (CRCL.US)开发的数字美元USDC以18.3万亿美元 的交易量领跑，Tether Holdings SA的USDT的交易量则为13.3万亿美元。 稳定币是一类被设计用于锚定主流资产价格(通常为美元)的加密货币。特朗普政府对稳定币持欢迎态 度，并于去年7月在《Genius法案》框架下推动了专门立法。这进而促使该技术在机构层面获得更广泛 的采用，包括渣打银行、沃尔玛(WMT.US)和亚马逊(AMZN.US)等重量级机构都在探索发行。特朗普家 族的加密项目之一World Liberty Financial也于去年3月推出了名为USD1的稳定币。 尽管2025年总体资金流量上升，但去中心化加密平台上的交易量占比却有所下降，这表明稳定币的使用 正更广泛地走向主流。Artemis联合创始人Anthony Yim表示，这"释放出数字美元 ...

11月28日,中国人民银行牵头召集公安部、网信办等13个部门开会,主题只有一个——虚拟货币。会上明 确一件事:稳定币这玩意儿,在中国境内不能流通,相关交易全是非法金融活动。 要是放在几年前，很多人可能觉得这只是例行监管更新一下口径。而放到现在这个时间点，再对比一下 美国那边在稳定币上一路狂飙的动作，味道就完全变了。 说白了，美国想把稳定币打造成新版"数字美元"，给自己高企的国债找新买家。中国这边则是干脆利落 把门一关，堵住所有可能绕道冲击金融安全的口子。那背后到底是怎样一盘棋？ 美国打的什么算盘? 今年 10 月，美国证监会终于点头，放行了首批比特币现货 ETF。华尔街资本立刻冲进场，资金像拧开 水龙头一样往里灌。比特币热度再起，只是表面现象，更关键的在稳定币。 截至目前，全球稳定币总市值已经突破 1320 亿美元，其中绝大部分是锚定美元的 USDT、USDC 之 类。简单算一下，差不多有 1100 亿美元，相当于被装进了一个"数字美元"的新壳，在全球各个角落流 动。这对美国来说，是一块很香的肥肉。 从技术角度看，这是新型数字金融工具。从美国国家利益看，这是把全球散户、企业、机构都拉进美国 国债池子里，变成一 ...

Core Insights - The issuance of 300 trillion PYUSD stablecoins by Paxos, a subsidiary of PayPal, highlights significant structural risks and vulnerabilities within the stablecoin ecosystem, challenging the notion of decentralization and stability [1][2] - The incident underscores the fragility of stablecoins, which are heavily reliant on the creditworthiness of their issuers rather than on algorithmic stability [1][2] - The event raises concerns about the potential for a new form of international financial dominance through stablecoins, particularly by U.S. tech companies, which could lead to global credit crises if mismanaged [3] Summary by Sections Stablecoin Stability and Risks - The so-called "stable" coins are revealed to be highly unstable, with their value fundamentally tied to the issuer's balance sheet and national credit [1] - The incident reflects a broader issue of trust in digital reserve assets, as the operational error created an unprecedented amount of digital currency, undermining the seriousness of currency issuance [2] Market Reactions and Implications - The cryptocurrency market has shown significant volatility, with a 30% decrease in total market capitalization since early October, indicating sensitivity to regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic conditions [2] - Stablecoins serve as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto world, amplifying underlying risks through exchanges and DeFi protocols [2] Geopolitical and Strategic Considerations - The dominance of U.S. companies in the stablecoin market poses risks of financial sanctions and control over global virtual assets, potentially leading to targeted actions against specific nations [3] - China is advancing its digital currency initiatives, emphasizing monetary sovereignty and technological independence, while Hong Kong is working on regulatory frameworks for virtual asset trading [4]

Core Insights - The rise of stablecoins is a significant force driving the mainstream adoption of the digital economy, with TRON leading the way under the leadership of Sun Yuchen [1][3] - TRON has established itself as a core player in the global stablecoin settlement space, with over $82 billion in TRC20-USDT circulation [1][3] Group 1: Stablecoin Network Foundation - TRON is recognized as a "battleground" for global stablecoins, offering near-zero transaction fees, high throughput, and a large user base, making it the preferred platform for personal payments, cross-border remittances, and DeFi transactions [3][4] - Over half of the USDT circulation operates on TRON, highlighting its unique advantages in the globalization of digital dollars [3] Group 2: Capital Efficiency Breakthrough - The partnership with Everclear introduces a new solution for efficient liquidity distribution and rebalancing within the stablecoin network [3][4] - Automated clearing and cross-chain collaboration mechanisms allow TRON's large stablecoin pool to avoid friction caused by dispersed liquidity, enhancing user experiences in cross-border payments and DeFi transactions [3] Group 3: Global Payment Application - The collaboration between TRON and Everclear is particularly significant for regions reliant on USD pricing and cross-border settlements, such as Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia [3][4] - This efficiency improvement enhances transaction experiences for small and medium enterprises and individual users, providing reliable clearing and settlement infrastructure for cross-border e-commerce and financial institutions [3] Group 4: Blockchain Technology Value - TRON's partnership with Everclear not only achieves technological breakthroughs but also establishes new standards in financial infrastructure [4] - The upgrade in stablecoin network efficiency represents a leap in industry technology and is a key annotation for the future landscape of the digital economy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Guidance and Establishment of the U.S. Stablecoin National Innovation Act" (also known as the "Genius Act") by President Trump marks the formal inclusion of digital assets into the national strategic framework of the U.S., amidst global concerns regarding the uncertain future of stablecoins [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Crisis and Stablecoin Legislation - The imminent U.S. debt crisis is a primary motivation for the rapid introduction of the "Genius Act," which is seen as a reaction to the challenges faced by the dollar hegemony in the wake of technological revolutions [3]. - The legislation mandates that stablecoin issuers must peg their assets to the U.S. dollar at a 1:1 ratio, effectively creating a "digital dollar colonial system" that positions stablecoins as "shadow buyers" of U.S. Treasury bonds [3]. - Tether (USDT) reportedly held nearly $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds in the first quarter of this year, surpassing the holdings of countries like Germany, leading to concerns about systemic risks such as "stablecoin runs" that could trigger urgent sell-offs of U.S. debt [3]. Group 2: Global Payment System and Financial Sovereignty - The "Genius Act" aims to reshape the global payment system, asserting that stablecoins can be used for cross-border payments, payroll, and energy trade settlements, directly challenging systems like China's CIPS and the EU's INSTEX [4]. - The U.S. Treasury's requirement for stablecoins to utilize smart contracts approved by the Federal Reserve reflects a "technological new cold war" mindset, which has drawn significant opposition [4]. - The act's intention to "consolidate the dollar's dominance" is criticized as a misguided approach, as it may ultimately alienate global partners and exacerbate the risks of currency substitution [4]. Group 3: The Future of Dollar Hegemony - The so-called "digital dollar revolution" is viewed as a façade for a crumbling hegemony, with the belief that the end of dollar dominance is an inevitable outcome of global cooperation and consensus-building [5]. - The historical context of U.S. financial policies suggests that attempts to reinforce dollar supremacy through such measures may be counterproductive, as evidenced by the growing movements towards digital currencies in the EU and BRICS nations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The passage of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. House of Representatives marks a significant victory for the cryptocurrency sector, providing a regulatory framework for stablecoins and other digital assets [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Developments - The GENIUS Act was approved with a vote of 308 in favor and 122 against, with notable bipartisan support [1]. - The Senate had previously approved the same legislation in mid-June, indicating a strong momentum for stablecoin regulation [1]. - The legislation requires stablecoins to be backed by liquid assets, such as U.S. dollars or short-term treasury bills, and mandates monthly disclosure of reserve assets by issuers [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the House vote, the stock price of Circle, a stablecoin issuer, remained relatively stable, while Bitcoin experienced a minor increase from $118,500 to $119,300 [3]. - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan, Bank of America, and Visa view the legislation as a catalyst for entering the stablecoin market [5]. Group 3: Future Regulatory Framework - The House also passed the CLARITY Act, aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, which will now be sent to the Senate for consideration [5]. - The CLARITY Act seeks to reduce the SEC's regulatory power over cryptocurrencies, transferring more authority to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which has faced opposition from many Democrats [5].

Group 1 - The current status of US dollar hegemony is facing unprecedented challenges, with a significant decline in its share of global foreign exchange reserves from 71% in 1999 to 57.4% in Q1 2024, marking a historical low [4][5][6] - Emerging markets, particularly Brazil and India, are actively reducing their dollar reserves, with Brazil and China agreeing to conduct trade settlements in local currencies, indicating a shift towards de-dollarization [4][5][6] - The dollar's share in international trade settlements has also shown a slight decline, with its current share at 49.08%, while the euro and yuan are gaining ground [12][13] Group 2 - The US federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 124%-125%, the highest since World War II, raising concerns about the sustainability of dollar hegemony [16][17][19] - The US is employing unconventional debt monetization strategies, including the introduction of century bonds and inflation-linked bonds, to maintain the attractiveness of dollar assets [40][41] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy, including a cumulative rate hike of 500 basis points since March 2022, has led to significant global financial repercussions, exacerbating the trend of de-dollarization [21][22][24] Group 3 - The "de-dollarization" process has accelerated, with over 110 countries actively participating in initiatives to reduce reliance on the dollar, particularly following geopolitical tensions such as the Ukraine crisis [27][28] - Various regions are adopting different strategies for de-dollarization, with BRICS countries establishing local currency settlement systems and Southeast Asian nations planning to reduce dollar settlements in regional trade [28][29] - The challenges to de-dollarization include the high conversion costs associated with the dollar's established network effects and the depth of the US debt market, which remains unmatched by non-US markets [29][30]

Core Insights - The emergence of stablecoins, particularly USD Coin (USDC), has raised alarms among global central banks as they begin to influence the U.S. Treasury market, indicating a shift in the underlying financial order [2][7] - The regulatory landscape for stablecoins is evolving rapidly, with the U.S. introducing the GENIUS Act, the EU implementing the MiCA regulation, and Hong Kong establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for fiat-referenced stablecoins [2][6][9] Group 1: Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins are categorized into four types: fiat-collateralized (e.g., USDT, USDC), crypto-collateralized (e.g., DAI), algorithmic (e.g., UST), and hybrid [2] - The total transaction volume of stablecoins reached $27.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing the annual transaction volumes of Visa and Mastercard [7] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The U.S. GENIUS Act mandates that non-U.S. issuers must demonstrate regulatory comparability to enter the U.S. market, potentially reshaping global financial order [6] - Hong Kong has become the first major financial center in Asia to legislate stablecoin regulations, establishing a legal framework for fiat-referenced stablecoins [6][9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The combined market capitalization of USDT and USDC exceeds $210 billion, accounting for 86% of the global stablecoin market [7] - Stablecoins are increasingly seen as a "shadow Federal Reserve," influencing U.S. Treasury yields through their high-frequency circulation and anchoring to U.S. debt [7][8] Group 4: Implications for Digital Currency - The rise of stablecoins is prompting a new monetary policy transmission mechanism that could replace traditional interbank systems [8] - Hong Kong's regulatory framework for stablecoins is viewed as a potential model for the internationalization of the digital yuan, with plans for offshore RMB stablecoin initiatives [9][10][14]