圣诞节前的布鲁塞尔，空气里夹着冬夜的潮冷与政治的焦灼。2025年12月18日，就在欧盟27个成员国召 开峰会讨论乌克兰问题的同一天，大批农民驾驶拖拉机进入欧盟机构周边，抗议矛头直指欧盟—南共市 自贸协议。同一周，欧盟委员会又抛出对2035年新车"零排放"目标的"倒退"方案——从"零排放"转 向"减排90%"。 （来源：经济参考报） 愤怒的农民掷出的土豆，打击的是欧盟试图扩大贸易自由化并推动供应链多元化的雄心；"禁油令"的摇 摆，则折射出欧盟在推进绿色转型以寻求新经济增长点的首鼠两端。这些，共同构成了欧洲经济迟缓难 行的岁末注脚。 回望2025年，欧洲经济在保持一定程度韧性增长的同时，走向"再平衡"阶段：一方面在地缘与贸易冲击 常态化的背景下重塑供给；另一方面在通胀回落与政策转向中修复需求。 美国关税政策带给欧洲的冲击不仅是出口压力，更是"可预期性下降"。企业难以据此形成稳定定价与供 应链计划，投资与扩产因而更加谨慎。欧洲央行也多次提示，关税与贸易不确定性会通过预期渠道压制 投资和消费，对增长形成持续性拖累。 贸易不确定性并非孤立变量。乌克兰危机持续抬升地缘风险溢价，能源价格波动仍是压在欧洲企业成本 曲线上的" ...

Core Insights - International oil prices have declined for the fourth consecutive month in November, indicating a fundamental shift in the oil market dynamics [1] - Traditional supply-demand factors are losing their influence, with new drivers such as rules and expectations taking precedence [1] - The strengthening of the dollar and geopolitical shifts are reshaping risk pricing models in the oil market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by increased production from U.S. shale oil and OPEC's decision to pause production increases, while global economic weakness is impacting demand [1][3] - The dollar's appreciation is reducing the actual purchasing power of oil priced in dollars, suppressing speculative demand [1][3] - OPEC's policy shift to pause production increases signals an attempt to manage market expectations through rule adjustments rather than solely through production cuts [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - There is a significant oversupply in the global oil market, with projections indicating a potential daily surplus of 4 million barrels by 2026 [3] - U.S. EIA reported an increase in crude oil inventories by 2.774 million barrels, exacerbating oversupply expectations [3] - Global oil demand growth for 2025 has been revised down to 680,000 barrels per day, reflecting weak demand [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The easing of tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict may lead to a relaxation of sanctions on Russian oil exports, increasing global supply [3] - Improved relations between the U.S. and Venezuela could alter the energy export landscape [3] - OPEC's strategy includes maintaining a daily production increase of 137,000 barrels in December while pausing further increases in the first quarter of 2026 [3] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Short-term trends suggest that oil prices may continue to decline, with forecasts indicating Brent crude could drop to the $30 per barrel range by 2027 [4] - Long-term challenges in energy competition will focus on three dimensions of soft power: digital rules, technical standards, and climate narratives [4] - Oil-producing countries are advised to innovate rules, manage expectations, and enhance value creation to navigate the current market landscape [4]

欧盟的如意算盘打得不可谓不精明，但美国却完全不买账。美国商务部长卢特尼克与贸易代表格里尔在会晤中，对欧盟的"效忠"姿态毫无兴趣，而是直接抛 出了核心诉求：要求欧盟重新审视其《数字市场法》和《数字服务法》，在执行过程中充分考虑美国科技企业的利益。卢特尼克甚至许下空头支票，声称只 要欧盟拿出"平衡"的数字监管体系，就能吸引高达1万亿美元的投资。这一幕让欧盟代表团措手不及，欧盟委员会负责贸易的谢夫乔维奇会后坦言，他从未 预料到美国会将数字规则与钢铝关税如此紧密地捆绑在一起。 欧盟的困境在于，数字监管法规是其在国际舞台上赖以生存的重要资本。欧盟技术专员维尔库宁早已明确表示，这些法规将会坚定不移地实施，绝不放松。 近期，欧盟正是依据这些法规对亚马逊和微软启动了反垄断调查，此前还曾对谷歌处以高达29.5亿欧元的天价罚单。如果为了换取美国的关税让步而妥协， 不仅会严重损害欧盟的监管权威，还会破坏其内部市场的公平竞争。这种进退两难的境地，使得欧盟27国的"中国牌"显得格外苍白无力——既想讨好美国， 又不愿放弃自身的核心利益，最终只能将第三方的利益作为赌注。 更令欧洲各国始料未及的是，特朗普的"献礼"来得如此之快。美欧谈判结束 ...

欧美28国闭门会谈，欧洲想拿中国当挡箭牌，华盛顿却不吃这套，不仅如此，白宫对中国献上大礼，为什么欧盟又在对华问题上被美国摆了一 道？ 美国商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔近日访问欧盟，和欧盟展开新一轮关税谈判，双方在布鲁塞尔上演了一场大戏。欧盟27国急于解决关 税问题，特别是美国扩充钢铝关税范围的挑战，为了换取特朗普政府让步，欧盟大打"中国牌"，炒作对付"共同的敌人"之类的话题，这话的意 思再明显不过，只要美国肯在关税上对欧洲网开一面，欧洲愿意当马前卒，配合美国断中国经贸的后路。然而，美国的算盘更精，卢特尼克要 求欧盟"审视其数字规则，寻求一种平衡"，称如果欧洲同意这个要求，美国将和欧洲一起处理钢铝问题。卢特尼克还说："如果欧盟能找到一 种平衡的数字规则体系，我认为欧盟可以吸引1万亿美元的投资。" 欧盟这时候是真急了，毕竟美国正琢磨着扩充钢铝关税的范围，原本已经有 400 多种商品要交 50% 的高关税，要是再扩围，欧洲的钢铁企业 就得喝西北风。要知道，美欧之前刚签了贸易协议，说好多数商品关税降到 15%，可钢铝这茬一直没解决，美国这会儿突然加码，摆明了是 拿捏欧洲的软肋。为了让特朗普政府在关税上网开一面，欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) asserts its sovereign right to establish economic activity regulations in response to threats from the U.S. regarding digital taxation and regulation [1] Group 1: EU's Position on Digital Regulation - The EU and its member states maintain that regulating local economic activities is their sovereign right, independent of U.S. trade agreements [1] - EU Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho emphasized that the issue of digital regulation is separate from any trade agreements with the U.S. [1] Group 2: U.S. Response and Digital Taxation - President Trump warned countries implementing digital taxes or regulations against U.S. companies that they would face high additional tariffs on exports to the U.S. unless such measures are revoked [1] - The EU's digital rules are broad and not specifically targeted at U.S. companies, according to EU Commission technology spokesperson Thomas Reynier [1] Group 3: Enforcement Actions by the EU - In April, the EU Commission fined Apple and a metaverse platform for violating the EU's Digital Markets Act, imposing fines of €500 million and €200 million respectively [1]

Core Points - The European Union (EU) asserts its sovereign right to establish economic activity regulations within its territory in response to threats from the U.S. regarding digital taxation and regulation [1] - The EU's digital rules are comprehensive and not specifically targeted at American companies, as stated by the EU Commission's spokesperson [1] - In April, the EU Commission fined Apple and Meta for violations of the EU Digital Markets Act, imposing penalties of €500 million and €200 million respectively [1]