Group 1 - The core argument is that while AI has significantly boosted productivity in the U.S. economy by 1.3%, the Federal Reserve remains hesitant to adjust interest rates, contrasting with the decisive actions taken during the 1990s under Greenspan [1][4][6] - The rapid adoption of AI is highlighted, with its penetration into various industries occurring in just three years, compared to six years for smartphones, indicating a transformative impact on productivity [6][4] - The productivity gains from AI are compared to the internet boom of the 1990s, suggesting that the current AI revolution could provide a similar economic boost if managed correctly [6][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's reluctance to capitalize on AI's productivity gains is attributed to concerns over potential job losses, particularly in entry-level positions, as AI technologies tend to focus on "reducing workforce" rather than expanding it [9][11] - The technology sector is experiencing a paradox where it contributes significantly to economic growth while simultaneously reducing employment, with over 89,000 jobs reportedly replaced by AI last year [11] - The lack of high-quality data on AI's economic impact poses a challenge for the Federal Reserve in formulating effective policies, as existing research is often based on flawed information [13] Group 3 - The current political climate and the sensitive nature of policy decisions are factors in the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, especially with inflation still above target levels and a transitional leadership in place [15] - Despite some support for AI's potential to enhance productivity among Federal Reserve candidates, there is a general reluctance to implement policies that could risk economic stability [18][20] - The ongoing debate about AI's role in the economy is just beginning, with various stakeholders expressing differing levels of optimism and caution regarding its future impact [17][20]

美联储在制定货币政策时面临"数据迷雾"，市场转向"数票"模式。12名今年拥有投票权的官员中，已有 5人表示倾向下月维持利率不变，不过美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯暗示近期可能再次降 息，这一表态提升了市场对12月降息的预期，联邦基金期货显示的降息概率从低于30%反弹至60%以 上。分析认为，12月的决议正在成为多年来最接近的表决，降息和按兵不动的概率五五开。 在取消公布10月份CPI数据后，当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工统计局表示，原定于12月10日 发布的11月份CPI数据，将推迟到12月18日，这意味着美联储在12月10日利率决议时，将再度缺少通胀 数据作为参考。 陷入数据迷雾 12月，美联储在制定货币政策时将面临"数据迷雾"。当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工部下属的 劳工统计局（BLS）在官网发布了对多项数据报告的决定，以及一些报告修订后的发布日期。劳工统计 局表示，将取消原定于11月13日发布的10月份消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。声明解释称，由于拨款中 断，BLS无法收集10月份的调查数据，也无法追溯收集这些数据。 近期，多位美联储官员已经表达了对在"数据迷雾"中制定货币政策 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown, and the focus is now on the delayed economic data, with the September non-farm payroll report set to be released next Thursday before the market opens [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will also release the "real earnings" report the day after the non-farm data, which is crucial for understanding consumer purchasing power [1] - The only data released on time during the shutdown was the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), as it is essential for calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits [1] Group 1 - The Commerce Department and its Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) have not yet released a new data schedule, leaving key indicators like GDP and PCE without a confirmed release date [2] - This data gap has created market pressure and increased policy challenges for the Federal Reserve, as they must rely on alternative data to assess economic conditions [2] - Some data, such as the October CPI report, may never be collected due to the reliance on field data that could not be gathered during the shutdown [2] Group 2 - The BLS needs to restore multiple statistics, including import and export prices, job vacancies, producer prices, and labor productivity, while the Labor Department is responsible for weekly unemployment claims [3] - The Commerce Department oversees significant data releases, including personal income and spending (including the Fed's preferred PCE inflation), GDP, retail sales, trade balance, and durable goods orders [3] - The Census Bureau announced that it will publish August construction spending, factory orders, and international trade data next week, which were delayed due to the federal shutdown [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the mixed performance of the U.S. stock market amid concerns over the impact of a prolonged government shutdown on economic data collection and future market trends [1][2][4]. Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed a split performance with the Dow Jones rising by 1.18%, the S&P 500 slightly up by 0.21%, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.25% [1]. - Major tech stocks exhibited varied results, with Apple up over 2% and Nvidia down nearly 3%, influenced by SoftBank's decision to liquidate its holdings in Nvidia [1]. Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index experienced a slight decline of 0.06%, with mixed performances among Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers [2]. - Xpeng Motors saw a significant gain of over 7%, while Alibaba and Tencent Music dropped more than 3% [2]. Economic Data Concerns - The government shutdown has led to significant disruptions in the collection of key economic data for October, raising concerns about the accuracy of economic assessments [2][3]. - The absence of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and household surveys could hinder market evaluations of inflation and unemployment [3][4]. Data Release Challenges - Analysts are concerned about the backlog of economic data that will need to be addressed once the government reopens, with predictions of a "data explosion" as agencies catch up [5][6]. - The September employment report is expected to be one of the first data releases post-shutdown, as it was completed before the shutdown began [5]. Market Outlook - Historical data suggests that the end of government shutdowns often leads to positive market movements, with an average increase of 2.3% in the S&P 500 in the month following such events [8]. - The article indicates that the market may experience a rally as the government reopens, despite the challenges posed by the recent shutdown and the mixed performance of tech stocks [8].