美联储在制定货币政策时面临"数据迷雾"，市场转向"数票"模式。12名今年拥有投票权的官员中，已有 5人表示倾向下月维持利率不变，不过美联储三号人物、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯暗示近期可能再次降 息，这一表态提升了市场对12月降息的预期，联邦基金期货显示的降息概率从低于30%反弹至60%以 上。分析认为，12月的决议正在成为多年来最接近的表决，降息和按兵不动的概率五五开。 在取消公布10月份CPI数据后，当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工统计局表示，原定于12月10日 发布的11月份CPI数据，将推迟到12月18日，这意味着美联储在12月10日利率决议时，将再度缺少通胀 数据作为参考。 陷入数据迷雾 12月，美联储在制定货币政策时将面临"数据迷雾"。当地时间上周五（11月21日），美国劳工部下属的 劳工统计局（BLS）在官网发布了对多项数据报告的决定，以及一些报告修订后的发布日期。劳工统计 局表示，将取消原定于11月13日发布的10月份消费者价格指数（CPI）报告。声明解释称，由于拨款中 断，BLS无法收集10月份的调查数据，也无法追溯收集这些数据。 近期，多位美联储官员已经表达了对在"数据迷雾"中制定货币政策 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government has ended its shutdown, and the focus is now on the delayed economic data, with the September non-farm payroll report set to be released next Thursday before the market opens [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will also release the "real earnings" report the day after the non-farm data, which is crucial for understanding consumer purchasing power [1] - The only data released on time during the shutdown was the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), as it is essential for calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments for Social Security benefits [1] Group 1 - The Commerce Department and its Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) have not yet released a new data schedule, leaving key indicators like GDP and PCE without a confirmed release date [2] - This data gap has created market pressure and increased policy challenges for the Federal Reserve, as they must rely on alternative data to assess economic conditions [2] - Some data, such as the October CPI report, may never be collected due to the reliance on field data that could not be gathered during the shutdown [2] Group 2 - The BLS needs to restore multiple statistics, including import and export prices, job vacancies, producer prices, and labor productivity, while the Labor Department is responsible for weekly unemployment claims [3] - The Commerce Department oversees significant data releases, including personal income and spending (including the Fed's preferred PCE inflation), GDP, retail sales, trade balance, and durable goods orders [3] - The Census Bureau announced that it will publish August construction spending, factory orders, and international trade data next week, which were delayed due to the federal shutdown [3]

当地时间周二的美股盘面，正透着一股"一半是海水，一半是火焰"的微妙气息。 三大股指收盘涨跌分化，道指以1.18%的涨幅稳步上行，标普500指数微涨0.21%勉强收红，纳指却 逆势下跌0.25%。 这并非危言耸听。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）、人口普查局等核心统计机构，在停摆期间完全暂停了数据采集工作，尤 其那些依赖人工实地调研、逐户走访的报告，受到的冲击最为直接。 其中最受关注的，莫过于原定于10月公布的消费者物价指数（CPI）——这一衡量通胀水平的核心指 标，其缺失将让市场难以判断物价走势；而用于计算失业率的家庭调查也同样岌岌可危。 这无疑给经济基本面判断蒙上了一层厚厚的迷雾。 龙头科技股的表现同样冷暖不均：苹果涨超2%、博通涨逾1%，微软、谷歌、亚马逊则在微涨区间 徘徊； 而英伟达跌近3%的表现格外引人关注，背后更传来软银清仓该股的重磅消息 ， 叠加甲骨文 跌超2%、特斯拉跌超1%，共同成为拖累盘面的主要力量。 尽管市场预期美国政府结束停摆将恢复关键经济数据发布，从而为美联储政策路径提供更清晰指 引，但科技股估值压力仍抑制整体风险偏好。 热门中概股的走势也同步呈现分化态势，纳斯达克中国金龙指数最终微跌0.0 ...