Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the US stock market, highlighting the impact of President Trump's decision to delay tariffs on EU goods, which led to significant gains in major indices and tech stocks like Tesla [1][3][6]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - On May 27, the US stock market saw a notable increase, with the Dow Jones rising by 1.78%, the S&P 500 by 2.05%, and the Nasdaq by 2.47% [1]. - Major tech stocks experienced substantial gains, with Tesla's stock price increasing by nearly 7%, adding approximately $75.9 billion (around ¥546.1 billion) to its market capitalization [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The US economy has been developing in an environment of high interest rates, high growth, and elevated inflation, leading to increased financing costs for companies [6]. - Analysts predict that the return rate of US stocks may decline from the previous range of 15%-20% to 5%-10% over the next five years due to high valuations and potential shifts in investor preference towards other assets [6][7]. - Current valuations of US stocks are above 21 times earnings, which is considered high compared to other countries, suggesting limited short-term upside unless trade negotiations progress [6][7]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - A survey conducted at the JPMorgan Global Markets Conference indicated that 36% of investors expect European markets to outperform by 2025, while only 17% favor the US market [7]. - Emerging markets are anticipated to enter a "new bull market," driven by a weaker dollar, peak US bond yields, and a recovering Chinese economy [7].

美国银行知名策略师哈内特最近将新兴市场称为全球市场中的"下一个牛市"。 全球市场向来牵一发而动全身。此前，穆迪调降美国信用评级仅导致美国"股债汇三杀"一日游，不少华尔街大机构高管开始警示美元资产投资者过于自满的 风险，并认为全球金融系统正在发生一些"更深层次"的事情。 话音刚落，被视为传统避险资产的日债、美债拍售相继遇冷，后者导致美国周三再度遭遇"股债汇三杀"。同时，黄金、比特币价格却升至历史新高。此外， 随着更多投资者选择"卖出美国"交易，分析师认为新兴市场有望开启一轮牛市。 美债、日债吸引力下降的逻辑 周三，美国再度遭遇股债汇三杀：美股三大股指遭遇四月以来最严重抛售、长期美债收益率出现两位数基点单日涨幅、美元指数再现将近50点的大跌单日， 失手关键点位100。其中，美债再度成为大跌的"风暴眼"。当日拍售的20年期美债的最高中标利率达到5.047%，史上第二次超过5%，并录得近6个月来最大 尾部利差，投标倍数也从近六个月平均水平2.57降至2.46。如此惨淡的拍售数据发生在穆迪调降美国信用评级后的首场长债拍售中。本应是避险资产的长期 美债需求遇冷，再度引发了投资者恐慌情绪，带动美股美元同步大跌。 对美国高债 ...