证券研究报告：食品饮料|公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-27 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -27% -23% -19% -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 安井食品 食品饮料 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 83.86 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）2.93 / 2.93 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）246 / 246 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 102.97 / 68.93 | | 资产负债率(%) | 23.6% | | 市盈率 | 16.51 | | 第一大股东 | 福建国力民生科技发展 | | 有限公司 | | 研究所 分析师:蔡雪昱 SAC 登记编号:S1340522070001 Email:caixueyu@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨逸文 SAC 登记编号:S1340522120002 Email:yangyiwen@cnpsec.com 安井食品(603345) 战略转向新 ...

事项： ❖ 风险提示：新品拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧、食品安全问题。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 证 券 研 究 报 告 安井食品（603345）跟踪分析报告 强推（维持） 思路升级，方向明确，重申底部布局 目标价：100 元 资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 5 月 21 日收盘价 公司研究 速冻食品 2025 年 05 月 22 日 当前价：80.82 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：董广阳 电话：021-20572598 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15,127 | 16,368 | 17,765 | 19,282 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | | 归母净利润(百万 ...

资料来源：公司公告，华创证券预测 注：股价为 2025 年 5 月 21 日收盘价 证 券 研 究 报 告 安井食品（603345）跟踪分析报告 强推（维持） 思路升级，方向明确，重申底部布局 目标价：100 元 事项： ❖ 风险提示：新品拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧、食品安全问题。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 15,127 | 16,368 | 17,765 | 19,282 | | 同比增速(%) | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,485 | 1,522 | 1,673 | 1,875 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.5% | 2.5% | 9.9% | 12.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 5.06 | 5.19 | 5.71 | 6.39 | | 市盈率(倍) | 16 | 16 | 14 | 13 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1 ...

盈利预测与估值 我们维持此前利润预测，预计25-27 年归母净利为6.72 亿元、8.59 亿元和10.81 亿元，对应EPS 为1.62、 2.07 和2.60 元。全球化战略加速落地，第二成长曲线逐步兑现，经营持续向好。截至4 月28 日，Wind 一致预期可比公司25 年平均PE 为29 倍，海外非美市场加速渗透与品类扩张共振，公司营收及利润增长 有弹性，有望享受估值溢价。我们给予公司2025 年40倍PE，对应目标价64.80 元（前值64.76 元，对应 25 年1.10 倍PEG），维持"买入"评级。 1Q25 营收同比+42.0%，增速较4Q24 提升13.5pct，我们认为主要系新品驱动。2024 年公司通过加大研 发投入，不断推出新产品和更新迭代现有品类，在国内外市场进行产品矩阵的补充优化和推广，比如高 瓦数氮化镓快充产品、第二代NAS 云存储产品和TWS 耳机。上述新品的导入助推1Q25营收加速增长。 在2025 年1 月举办的CES 展上，绿联科技展出AI NAS、Nexode 500W 6 口GaN 桌面快速充电器、 Revodok 系列雷电5 拓展坞等新品。我们看好年度新品对今年营收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.127 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.050 billion yuan, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, while net profit for the same quarter was 438 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 22.8% [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.600 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 395 million yuan, down 10.01% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 297 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1% for 2024 [6][7]. - The company is focusing on practical adjustments and actively building momentum, with expectations for revenue recovery driven by new products and channels despite external demand pressures [6][7]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was 15.127 billion yuan, with a projected growth of 8.2% for 2025, reaching 16.368 billion yuan. The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 1.522 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.5% [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 5.06 yuan, with projections of 5.19 yuan for 2025, 5.71 yuan for 2026, and 6.39 yuan for 2027. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are 15, 14, 13, and 12 respectively [7][8]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 23.3%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points. The net profit margin was recorded at 9.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. Product and Market Performance - The company’s revenue from various product categories showed mixed results in 2024, with the rice and flour segment declining by 3.1%, while frozen prepared foods and dishes grew by 11.4% and 10.7% respectively. The company’s hot pot ingredients experienced significant growth, particularly in vacuum-sealed packaging [6][7]. - The company’s sales channels also demonstrated varied performance, with distribution channels increasing by 8.9%, while supermarkets and e-commerce channels saw declines of 2.4% and 2.3% respectively. The new retail channel showed a remarkable growth of 33% [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied across regions, with Northeast China growing by 7.0%, North China by 5.4%, East China by 6.4%, South China by 9.1%, Central China by 7.4%, Northwest by 13.5%, and Southwest by 14.4% [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 100 yuan [1][6]. Core Views - The company has shown a pragmatic adjustment in its operations and is actively building momentum for future growth. Despite short-term pressures, the strategic optimization and new product launches are expected to gradually improve the company's fundamentals [1][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 15.127 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.485 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year. In Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.050 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, and the net profit for the same quarter was 438 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 22.8% year-on-year [6][7]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.600 billion yuan, down 4.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 395 million yuan, down 10.01% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10.15 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 297 million yuan, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.1% for 2024 [6][7]. Product and Channel Performance - The company’s revenue from various product categories in 2024 showed mixed results: - Noodle and rice products decreased by 3.1% - Frozen prepared foods increased by 11.4% - Dishes grew by 10.7% - Agricultural and sideline products fell by 11.7% [6][7]. - In terms of distribution channels, revenue from distributors increased by 8.9%, while supermarkets, direct sales, and e-commerce saw declines of 2.4%, 4.5%, and 2.3% respectively. The new retail channel showed significant growth at 33% [6][7]. Regional Performance - Revenue growth varied across regions in 2024, with the following year-on-year increases: - Northeast: +7.0% - North China: +5.4% - East China: +6.4% - South China: +9.1% - Central China: +7.4% - Northwest: +13.5% - Southwest: +14.4% [6][7]. Profitability Metrics - The company maintained a gross margin of 23.3% in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for the year was 9.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin remained at 23.3%, but the net profit margin was 11.0%, reflecting a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year due to increased promotional efforts and a decline in average sales prices [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover growth through new products and channels, despite ongoing external demand pressures. The introduction of high-quality, mid-priced products for B-end customers and premium products for C-end customers is anticipated to drive revenue recovery [6][7]. - The EPS forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 5.19, 5.71, and 6.39 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [6][7].