期货研究报告：日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普：美伊谈得"富有成效" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-03-24 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普：美伊谈得"富有成效" 特朗普表态美伊谈判取得成效，全球市场风险偏好回升，美元 指数走弱。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 伊朗否认议长与美国谈判 特朗普表态缓和，市场风险偏好短期修复，美股三大指数反弹。 宏观策略（股指期货） 综 合 A 股深度回调，沪指盘中跌破 3800 点 晨 报 美伊战争继续升级，全球股市遭受重创，A 股同样大跌。盘面消 息面传言特朗普政府与伊朗谈判取得进展，市场风险偏好回升。 但目前美伊局势依旧不明，市场回弹持续性有待观望。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 韩国对涉华碳钢及合金钢热轧板卷作出反倾销终裁 受能源及焦煤价格大幅上涨的带动，钢价震荡偏强，但自身基 本面驱动有所不足。成材库存拐点虽然出现，但需求强度不足， 压制上方驱动和幅度。 有色金属（铜） 梵蒂冈发起国际倡议，推动投资者退出矿业领域 中东战争因为特朗普讲话而阶段降温，但需要警惕预期反复风 险，基本面则继续对盘面形成托底支撑，预计铜价维持宽幅震 荡走势。 能源化工（原油） ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 碳酸锂周度去库收窄，动力需求环比改善 | 走势评级: | | --- | [★Ta碳b酸le_锂Su周m度m去ary库] 收窄，动力需求环比改善 供给端：1）津巴：3 月 18 日中国驻津巴布韦使馆发布重要提醒。 津巴当地政府仍希望推动下游加工环节投资建厂，距停止出口已 过去近 1 月，津巴事件或比此前预期得更不乐观。2）澳洲：Core Lithium 计划重启 Finniss 锂矿山，平衡表中 Q4 新增 2000 吨 LCE 供给。3 月锂矿到货继续减少，而碳酸锂辉石产线负荷提升，预 计锂矿以去库为主，矿端维持偏紧格局。 有 色 金 属 需求端，市场目前重点关注动力需求变化。3 月前两周新能源汽 车销量数据同比仍较差，但环比改善已现端倪。根据乘联会预测， 3 月新能源车零售可达 90 万辆，同比-10%。该数据意味着，3 月下半月新能源汽车市场零售达 61.5 万辆，同比+2%。此外， 新车发布对月度销量节奏影响巨大。3 月 19 日小米发布新一代 SU7，用时 34 分钟锁单 1.5 万台，相比之下，第一代 SU7 上市 后约 72 小时锁单量约 2 万台；上市第 7 天锁单量超过 4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a trend rating of "oscillation" for lithium carbonate [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the good production scheduling of cathodes and cells, the direct demand for lithium carbonate is still supported. Coupled with the fact that supply disturbances have not materialized, the overall situation is still regarded as bullish. In the long - term, the narrative of new energy replacing old energy under the Middle East conflict provides support. The strategy is to focus on opportunities to go long on dips [4][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply Disturbance and Demand Support - **Supply Side**: There are many disturbances on the supply side. At the mine end, in Jiangxi, the resumption progress of Jianxiawo is still slow. As of March 10, the number of day - shift workers in Jianxiawo slightly increased, but only returned to the level before the Spring Festival. The number of night - shift workers and the logistics index did not increase significantly. In Zimbabwe, the specific time for export resumption is still unclear, and it is expected to affect the monthly supply of 12,000 tons of LCE. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, some countries in Australia and Africa face rising fuel prices and limited reserves, which may lead to increased mining costs or even passive production cuts. At the salt end, the output in March continued to increase, mainly from pyroxene. In March, the arrival of Australian and Zimbabwean lithium concentrates decreased, while the production line load of lithium carbonate pyroxene increased, and lithium ore is expected to be destocked. Currently, the inventory days of lithium ore are at a low level, and the mine end remains in a tight pattern [2][15]. - **Demand Side**: The market generally recognizes the high growth of energy storage but is skeptical about power demand. In February, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were poor as expected, but exports more than doubled. The battery capacity per vehicle increased significantly. From January to February, the average battery capacity per pure - electric passenger vehicle was 64.5 kWh, a year - on - year increase of 21%; the battery capacity per plug - in hybrid passenger vehicle was 35.2 kWh, a year - on - year increase of 34%. From January to February 2026, the retail unit price of new energy vehicles was 192,000 yuan, significantly higher than the average of 160,000 yuan in 2025, which further proves that the increase in battery capacity per vehicle driven by the high - end development of new energy vehicles effectively compensates for the decline in passenger vehicle sales and may also partially explain why the production scheduling of cathodes and cells is much better than vehicle sales [3][16]. - **Inventory Situation**: This week, SMM destocked 414 tons, with upstream/medium - stream/downstream destocking of - 1184/- 1120/+ 1890 tons respectively. The destocking amplitude narrowed significantly compared with before. The overall inventory days are 27.8 days, with upstream/medium - stream/downstream at 4.6/10.4/12.8 days respectively. The downstream replenished inventory to the highest level since October last year. After the previous decline in the market, the downstream actively stocked up, resulting in a marginal decline in recent purchasing demand, weakening spot - futures transactions. The downstream mainly makes rigid - demand purchases, with low hanging prices or post - pricing. After updating imports and exports, it may be difficult to destock domestic lithium carbonate in March. The destocking in the first two weeks may lead to inventory accumulation after the arrival of imports in the last two weeks. The destocking expectation remains in April [3][17]. 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - **Rio Tinto**: Rio Tinto completed the first commercial lithium shipment from its Rincon project in Argentina. The 200 - ton lithium carbonate was produced by the existing factory, loaded in 10 containers, and shipped from Buenos Aires Port to Shanghai, China. The Rincon project adopts a phased production model. The initial start - up factory has an annual capacity of 3,000 tons, and a 57,000 - ton expansion factory is under construction, expected to cost $2.5 billion and start production in 2028, reaching full - load operation within three years, with a total battery - grade lithium carbonate capacity of 60,000 tons per year [18]. - **Liontown**: Australian lithium mining company Liontown reported a statutory after - tax net loss of A$184 million in the six months ended December 31, a significant increase from the A$15 million loss in the same period last year, mainly due to a one - time non - cash accounting expense. In the first half of the year, the company's flagship mine shifted to underground mining and sold 190,000 tons of lithium raw materials. The company said that the 2026 fiscal year guidance remains unchanged, and the lithium spodumene price continued to strengthen in 2026. It is considering a brownfield expansion of the Kathleen Valley mine, and the board will decide whether to approve the plan in the first quarter of the next fiscal year, mainly depending on the lithium price trend [18]. 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain - **Resource End**: The prices of ore and salt show the same trend. The spot average price of lithium concentrate increased by 2.6% week - on - week to $2,210 per ton [14]. - **Lithium Salt**: The weekly destocking slowed down. The closing price of LC2605 decreased by 2.6% week - on - week to 152,100 yuan per ton; the spot average prices of SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.4% and 2.5% week - on - week to 159,000 and 155,500 yuan per ton respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide fluctuated accordingly [13][14]. - **Downstream Intermediates**: The demand in March is still supported. The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased to varying degrees [14]. - **Terminal**: Attention should be paid to the subsequent power sales situation. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in February decreased year - on - year, but the battery capacity per vehicle increased significantly [15][16].

期货研究报告：日度报告——综合晨报 伊朗最高领袖呼吁继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-03-13 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特称不担心伊朗战争的财政成本 特朗普对于伊朗战争的表态偏向积极，短期 TACO 的可能性降 低，市场风险偏好走弱，美元上升。 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 央行开展了 245 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 近期最可能成为债市主线的因素是通胀，随着时间推移，油价 中枢抬升的概率在不断上升，待市场消化同业存款利率下调的 消息后，短线做空的性价比略高于做多。 农产品（豆粕） 拉尼娜很快将结束，厄尔尼诺年中或到来 原油价格再度上涨，CBOT 大豆期价收高，海运费上行，均令我 国进口大豆成本增加。此外，近期市场对于 3-4 月进口大豆到港 不及预期的担忧加剧，豆粕近月期价再创新高。 能源化工（PX） 3 月 12 日 PX 市场日报 本轮行情在原料端有短缺风险和 PX 连续去库预期的影响下，PX 作为没有社会蓄水池的液态化工品再度表现出超预期的弹性， 短期 PX 大概率仍维持强势格局。 伊朗最高领袖呼吁继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡 综 贵金属再度明显下跌，金价跌近 2 ...