转自：北京日报客户端 中共张家口市委 关于制定张家口市国民经济和社会发展 第十五个五年规划的建议 （2025年12月5日中国共产党张家口市第十二届委员会第十一次全体会议通过） 中国共产党张家口市第十二届委员会第十一次全体会议，认真学习贯彻落实党的二十届四中全会、省委 十届九次全会精神，紧密结合张家口实际，就制定张家口市国民经济和社会发展"十五五"规划提出以下 建议。 一、"十五五"时期是张家口交出高质量发展优异答卷的关键时期 （1）"十四五"时期张家口发展取得重大成就。习近平总书记对张家口关心厚爱，先后两次亲临视察， 作出系列重要指示，为张家口高质量发展指明了前进方向、提供了根本遵循。"十四五"时期，全市上下 坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，全面落实党中央决策部署和省委工作要求，牢记嘱 托、感恩奋进，积极抢抓战略机遇，主动融入发展大局，抓改革、求突破，争一流、当冠军，办成了一 系列大事要事，"十四五"规划目标任务即将完成，经济社会发展各项事业发生了深刻变化、取得了长足 进步。一是综合经济实力持续增强。主要经济指标实现稳定增长，产业结构不断优化，六大产业增加值 占GDP比重达到56.5%，新能源和 ...

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical layout window at year-end, with a focus on cross-year trends and spring market movements, while domestic demand breakthroughs are key to unlocking potential [1][2][3] - The current market exhibits characteristics of low volatility and slow growth, with a shift in funding structure reshaping pricing logic [3][4] - Investment strategies are recommended to align with industry trends and policy expectations, particularly in sectors like AI, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4][5][6] Group 2 - The central economic work conference is expected to align with market expectations, while the Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a hawkish stance on interest rates [5][6][7] - The market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation, awaiting new opportunities, with a focus on the upcoming central economic work conference for policy direction [6][7][8] - Key sectors to watch include AI, energy storage, innovative pharmaceuticals, and traditional manufacturing, with a particular emphasis on resource revaluation [4][8][9] Group 3 - The AI industry chain remains a core investment focus, with opportunities arising from adjustments in the sector [9][10] - Areas experiencing supply-demand improvements, such as storage and energy storage chains, are also highlighted for potential growth [9][10][11] - The market is characterized by frequent style switches, with a shift from high-valuation growth stocks to undervalued cyclical stocks and dividend assets [11][12][13] Group 4 - The upcoming central economic work conference is crucial for determining the policy direction for 2026, with expectations for a focus on technology innovation and domestic demand expansion [11][12][13] - The market is likely to experience a spring rally, driven by macroeconomic data and liquidity conditions, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support [38][39][40] - The spring market dynamics are expected to favor small-cap and technology growth stocks as the year progresses [38][39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a strong performance driven by technology and resource sectors, while the Hong Kong market is under pressure from technology stocks, highlighting a structural characteristic of "industrial upgrading and policy expectations resonance" [1] Market Performance - A-shares saw all major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.32% to 3933.97 points, reaching a ten-year high, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index soaring 2.93% [1][2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index slightly declined by 0.29%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.66%, marking four consecutive days of decline [1][2] - A-share trading volume increased significantly to 2.67 trillion yuan, while Hong Kong's trading volume was 386.8 billion HKD, indicating a rapid return of funds to A-shares [1][2] Industry Highlights and Driving Logic - The A-share market is led by the resource and technology sectors, with the non-ferrous metals sector rising by 7.6% due to international gold prices surpassing 4000 USD and export controls on rare earths [3] - The solid-state battery sector is gaining momentum, with expectations of significant growth in shipment volumes by 2030 [3] - The nuclear power sector is also experiencing a surge, marked by the installation of key components for a fusion energy project [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - The A-share consumer sector is experiencing a downturn, particularly in the film and tourism industries, with a 17.8% year-on-year decline in box office revenue during the National Day holiday [4] - In the Hong Kong market, technology and pharmaceutical sectors are under pressure, with semiconductor stocks experiencing a significant drop [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current market is in a critical window of "third-quarter report verification + policy vacuum," suggesting investors focus on three investment themes in sectors where industrial trends and policy benefits resonate [5] - Emphasis on AI and innovative industries, with significant capital investment expected to drive demand across the supply chain [6] - Opportunities in cyclical and resource sectors are highlighted, particularly in precious metals and the renewable energy chain, with expectations of continued recovery in profitability [6] Short-term and Long-term Focus - Short-term strategies should target stocks with positive third-quarter earnings forecasts that align with industrial trends, particularly in storage chips and precious metals [7] - Long-term focus should be on "Artificial Intelligence +" and high-end manufacturing, constructing a portfolio driven by both policy benefits and industrial trends [7]

Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session will be held in Beijing from October 20 to 23, signaling strong confidence in China's economic development under Xi Jinping's economic thought [1] - Since the 18th National Congress, China's economy has maintained strategic stability and high-quality development, achieving a GDP growth from 54 trillion yuan to nearly 135 trillion yuan from 2012 to 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 6% [2][3] - The transformation of development concepts has led to higher quality economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicating a shift towards a more balanced and sustainable growth model [2] Group 2 - The supply and demand sides of China's economy have undergone profound changes, with innovation becoming the primary driving force, and domestic consumption expected to contribute approximately 63% to economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3][4] - China's global innovation index ranking has improved significantly, moving from 34th in 2012 to 10th in 2025, with a notable increase in patent applications [3][4] - The rural population's income growth has outpaced that of urban residents, with nearly 100 million rural poor lifted out of poverty, showcasing effective regional development strategies [4][5] Group 3 - China's openness has increased, with the country becoming a major trading partner for over 150 countries, maintaining the world's largest goods trade volume [5][6] - The economic structure has shifted, with the proportion of GDP from the service sector rising, indicating a transition towards a more service-oriented economy [6][7] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth is expected to rise, while investment's contribution is projected to decrease to below 28% [3][4] Group 4 - The Chinese economy is expected to provide new opportunities for many countries, enhancing global economic stability and cooperation [6][7] - The focus on improving people's livelihoods has led to increased public safety and overall living standards, with life expectancy projected to reach 79 years by 2024 [6][7] - The government continues to prioritize social welfare, with significant investments in education, healthcare, and social security systems [6][7] Group 5 - China's economic transformation presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in traditional industries transitioning to high-end, intelligent, and green production [16][17] - The country is fostering innovation and talent, with substantial investments in research and development, positioning itself as a leader in global technology [17][18] - The expansion of consumer markets and infrastructure development is expected to create vast opportunities for both domestic and foreign investors [18][19]

Economic Performance - Jiangxi's GDP grew by 5.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outperforming the national average, indicating stable economic performance [5][12] - Fixed asset investment increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with 4605 major projects completing 51.6% of their annual investment plan by June [5] - Private investment saw a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, reflecting enhanced vitality in the private sector [5] Debt Management and Financial Stability - The province has implemented a "1+9" plan to mitigate local debt risks, achieving over 80% progress in debt reduction [11] - A total of 205 financing platforms exited the market, completing 62.7% of the annual target for platform exits [11] - Jiangxi maintained a "zero default" record in public bond issuance, showcasing strong financial credibility [11] Real Estate Market - The sales area of commercial housing in Jiangxi increased by 3.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a 98.1% delivery rate for housing projects [11] - The government is actively implementing counter-cyclical measures in the real estate market to stabilize housing demand [11][22] Investment and Consumption - The province is focusing on expanding effective investment and consumption, with a series of initiatives to boost consumer spending [5][16] - Social retail sales increased by 5.3% year-on-year, driven by various consumption promotion activities [5] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program led to over 50 billion yuan in applications, significantly boosting related product sales [5] Technological and Industrial Development - Industrial value-added output grew by 8.3% year-on-year, with significant contributions from high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors [6] - The province is advancing digital transformation in manufacturing, with over 8,257 enterprises completing their first round of digital upgrades [6] - Jiangxi is promoting the integration of technology and industry, with a focus on future industries and innovation [6][17] Environmental and Green Initiatives - Jiangxi is actively pursuing ecological civilization initiatives, achieving a 96.2% rate of good water quality in national monitoring sections [9] - The province is implementing a three-year action plan for the protection of the Yangtze River, with ongoing efforts to improve air and water quality [9][20] Social Welfare and Employment - The government has prioritized employment stability, with 277,000 new urban jobs created in the first half of 2025 [10] - Public service spending in the social welfare sector accounted for 80.1% of the general public budget expenditure [10] - Initiatives to enhance community and elderly care services are being implemented, including the establishment of new community nursing homes [10][21]