文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） ◆◆◆ 在震荡期,我们要如何调整自己 的心态呢? A 股真正大涨的时间，大约占7%的交易 日。其他时间里多为震荡或阴跌行情。 很多投资者都希望多元化配置自己的资金，想要覆盖人民币资产和外币资产，也想要覆盖股票资产和债券类资产。 美元债就是其中的重要一环，那么美元债券基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，系统性地介绍了美元债券基金的投资知识。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 美元债 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 在震荡期,看到市场价格短期涨涨跌 跌,有的投资者是比较难受的。如何调 整自己的心态呢？ 巴菲特的老师,格雷厄姆,在价值投资 理念中提到，买股票，就是买公司。 买基金，就好比买了一篮子的股票，拥 有了自己的"迷你集团公司"。 我们以主动优选为例，假设持有1万的主 动优选，这就相当于一个市值1万元的迷 你公司。这个迷你公司买下后，背后公 司，每年会产生约700元的净利润（盈利 =市值/市盈率）。 涉及到的生意包含各行各业:从银行保 险，到电力芯片医药消费...... 很多生意是老百姓自己很难创办 ...

国务院新闻办公室今日上午10时举行新闻发布会，请国家发展改革委副主任王昌林等介绍落实中央经济 工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局有关情况，并答记者问。 国家发改委：要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策 把促进物价回升作为货币政策的重要 考量 国家发改委副主任王昌林在国新办新闻发布会上表示，CPI、PPI实现双回升，下一步，总量方面，要实 施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥存量政 策和增量政策的集成效率，推动形成经济增长和物价回升的良性互动。 国家发改委：将研究制定出台2026年—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案 国家发改委：将进一步规范地方经济促进行为 王昌林表示，推动供给在更高水平上实现动态平衡和良性循环，还需要坚持把市场运行的调控点放在纵 深推进全国统一大市场建设上，充分激发市场活力。重点是要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，实现从"卷价 格"向"优价值"转变。要完善市场准入、公平竞争、产能退出等机制，加强产能调控，积极化解供大于 求的阶段性矛盾，进一步细化地方招商引资，规范地方经济促进行为。 国家发改委：2025年经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成 发展韧性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the A-share market, emphasizing that it will not remain in a perpetual bull or bear market, but will oscillate between the two states over time [11][12][30]. Market Performance - The major indices, including the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, experienced slight declines, while small-cap stocks saw significant gains [2]. - The value style, which was previously underperforming, showed notable increases today [3]. - Free cash flow and dividend indices led the market gains [4]. - Growth styles, such as the ChiNext and STAR Market, experienced minor declines [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market also faced an overall downturn [6]. Market Cycles - Three significant cycles impact the market: 1. **Liquidity Cycle**: Influenced by the availability of money, affected by interest and exchange rate fluctuations. For instance, the Federal Reserve's rate hikes in 2021-2022 led to a global market downturn, while a potential rate cut in September 2024 could result in a 50-60% rise in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks from their lows [14][15][17][19]. 2. **Fundamental Cycle**: Relates to the growth rate of corporate earnings. Bull markets typically occur when earnings growth exceeds 20%, as seen in 2007, 2017, and 2021. Conversely, earnings declines in 2013 and 2024 marked bear market bottoms [20][22]. 3. **Sentiment Cycle**: Reflects investor emotions, where optimism peaks during bull markets and pessimism during bear markets. This is evidenced by fluctuations in new account openings and trading volumes [24][26][28]. Investment Strategy - Investors should recognize that these cycles are ongoing and will not remain static. When one or two cycles are at their peaks or troughs, it can lead to significant market movements [29][30]. - Smart investors can capitalize on these cycles by buying during downturns and selling during upswings, while remaining patient during neutral periods [32][33]. New Book Release - The new book "Dividend Index Fund Investment Guide" has been released and quickly topped sales charts, highlighting the growing interest in dividend index funds [35].

Core Viewpoint - Changshu's economy showed steady progress last year, ranking third among the top 100 counties in China, with a focus on quality improvement, transformation, and innovation in the new year [1] Economic Performance and Projections - In 2025, Changshu is expected to achieve a GDP exceeding 320 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8%, and a general public budget revenue of 24.19 billion yuan, growing by 1.4% [1] - The planned industrial output value for large-scale industries is 513.2 billion yuan, with an industrial added value growth of 6% [1] - By 2026, the goals include a GDP growth of over 5%, industrial added value growth of over 6.5%, and fixed asset investment growth of over 7% [1][2] Strategic Focus Areas - Changshu will focus on ten key areas to achieve its goals, including strengthening the industrial foundation, enhancing investment quality, promoting innovation, stimulating consumer market vitality, and accelerating the pace of opening up [2] - The city aims to improve urban vitality and maintain social harmony and stability through these initiatives [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% increase in the CSI 300 Index by 2026, driven entirely by earnings growth [1] Group 1: Fund Inflows - In 2026, net inflows into the Chinese stock market are expected to exceed outflows, with southbound capital net purchases projected to reach $200 billion, setting a new historical high [2][8] - Domestic asset reallocation may accelerate, potentially bringing an additional 3 trillion RMB ($420 billion) into the stock market [7] - The anticipated scale of dividends and buybacks this year could approach 4 trillion RMB ($570 billion) [7] Group 2: Policy Expectations - Monetary policy is expected to further ease through moderate reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts, despite potential upward pressure on the RMB against the USD [3] - Fiscal policy is projected to rebound, with the general fiscal deficit rate expected to rise from 11% in 2025 to 12.2% in 2026, supporting real estate destocking and infrastructure investments [3] - Regulatory stance towards the private economy is expected to remain supportive, with friendly stock market policies likely to continue unless there are signs of excessive valuations or rampant speculation [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The supply of funds is seen as a crucial factor for the slow bull market in Chinese stocks [5] - The "national team" is estimated to hold approximately 6 trillion RMB in Chinese stocks, acting as a stabilizing force during market sell-offs [10] - Corporate buybacks are projected to increase by 20% in 2026, following a strong performance in 2025 [10] Group 4: Investor Behavior - Global long-term investors are expected to reduce their underweight position in Chinese stocks, with a potential buying scale of $10 billion [8][9] - Domestic individual investors have significant room for reallocating assets, with only 11% currently in stocks compared to 54% in real estate and 28% in cash [9] - Institutional investors are anticipated to bring in 30 trillion RMB and 14 trillion RMB into the market, aligning with developed and emerging market averages [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of deepening reforms and expanding high-level openness as key strategies for achieving modernization in China, particularly in the context of Zhengzhou's development as a national central city and a hub for domestic and international dual circulation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Reform and Development - The need to deepen reforms to enhance advantages and build a dual circulation hub is highlighted as a strategic choice for Zhengzhou to fulfill its responsibilities as a national central city [2]. - Zhengzhou is one of three cities in China designated as pilot cities for comprehensive market-oriented allocation of factors, indicating its role in leading reform initiatives [2]. Group 2: Open Economy and Market Integration - The article stresses the importance of integrating into the national unified market to leverage the advantages of a large market scale and unlock development potential [2]. - Zhengzhou aims to strengthen its position as a comprehensive international transportation hub and enhance its modern commercial logistics capabilities [2][3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Connectivity - Zhengzhou is positioned as a critical transportation hub with a high-level international status, featuring a comprehensive high-speed rail network and international air transport capabilities [3]. - The city is recognized for its strategic resources that connect various regions, making it a vital manufacturing base and an inland opening window [3]. Group 4: Systematic Reform and Innovation - The article advocates for a unified approach to reform and openness, suggesting that deeper reforms will necessitate higher levels of openness and vice versa [4]. - It calls for innovative thinking to expand institutional openness and actively participate in the construction of a unified national market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of global stock markets, particularly focusing on the valuation of U.S. stocks and the characteristics of bull and bear markets, while also introducing investment opportunities through global index funds. Group 1: Global Stock Market Overview - This week, global stock markets experienced slight fluctuations with minimal movement [1][2][3][4] - The U.S. stock market has seen a slight decline, while non-U.S. markets have shown slight increases [2][3] - A-shares in China also experienced a slight increase, indicating a stable market environment [4] Group 2: Valuation Insights - Despite significant increases in U.S. stock indices over the years, they have rarely reached overvaluation, mostly remaining at normal valuation levels [5][6] - As of October this year, U.S. stocks touched high valuation levels, but have since corrected back to a normal high valuation [7][8] - The growth in earnings over the past two years has helped absorb some of the high valuations in the U.S. stock market [9] Group 3: Bull and Bear Market Characteristics - U.S. stock markets have experienced long bull and bear cycles, with each cycle lasting 15-20 years [12][13][14] - Long bear markets typically occur during economic recessions, as seen in the 1970s and from 2000 to 2010 [15][16] - The current economic environment has not yet entered a recession, and earnings growth remains the primary driver for stock index increases [22][23] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Historical data indicates that significant undervaluation opportunities in global stock indices occurred in 2018, 2020, and 2022 [29] - The article highlights the introduction of a global index investment advisory portfolio that diversifies across various stock markets [34][35] - The portfolio aims to track global stock market performance, although there are current purchase limits for domestic investors [37] Group 5: Book Promotion - A new edition of the book "The Long-Term Investment Guide" has been released, which includes updated data and new chapters [40] - The book emphasizes that stocks are the best long-term investment vehicle, encouraging asset allocation towards equities [41][42]

证 券 研 究 报 告 11月中国与新兴市场流入加速，发达市场流入减速 全球资产配置资金流向月报（2025年11月） 3 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.11 摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 11月，美国政府关门宣告结束，经济数据开始逐步披露。11月21日，美国劳工局数据显示，9月，新增非农就业人数11.9万人，远超市场预期的5万人，失业率上升0.1个百分点至4.4%， 续创2021年11月以来的最高水平。市场在美元的强弱摇摆中寻找新的线索。12月10日，美联储如期降息25BPs，年内累计下调75BPs，但是本次降息出现3票反对，美联储内部分歧加 大。从11月1日到12月10日，分资产类别来看，1）权益方面，美元计价下，巴西和越南股市领涨全球，美元计价下分别上涨4.5%和4.7%，而纳斯达克和沪深300则出现下跌；2）固收 层面，10年美债收益率和美元指数先下后上，美联储降息当天下行5BPs， ...

Group 1 - The market is entering a critical layout window at year-end, with a focus on cross-year trends and spring market movements, while domestic demand breakthroughs are key to unlocking potential [1][2][3] - The current market exhibits characteristics of low volatility and slow growth, with a shift in funding structure reshaping pricing logic [3][4] - Investment strategies are recommended to align with industry trends and policy expectations, particularly in sectors like AI, energy storage, and innovative pharmaceuticals [4][5][6] Group 2 - The central economic work conference is expected to align with market expectations, while the Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a hawkish stance on interest rates [5][6][7] - The market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation, awaiting new opportunities, with a focus on the upcoming central economic work conference for policy direction [6][7][8] - Key sectors to watch include AI, energy storage, innovative pharmaceuticals, and traditional manufacturing, with a particular emphasis on resource revaluation [4][8][9] Group 3 - The AI industry chain remains a core investment focus, with opportunities arising from adjustments in the sector [9][10] - Areas experiencing supply-demand improvements, such as storage and energy storage chains, are also highlighted for potential growth [9][10][11] - The market is characterized by frequent style switches, with a shift from high-valuation growth stocks to undervalued cyclical stocks and dividend assets [11][12][13] Group 4 - The upcoming central economic work conference is crucial for determining the policy direction for 2026, with expectations for a focus on technology innovation and domestic demand expansion [11][12][13] - The market is likely to experience a spring rally, driven by macroeconomic data and liquidity conditions, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support [38][39][40] - The spring market dynamics are expected to favor small-cap and technology growth stocks as the year progresses [38][39][40]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in global stock markets, the impact of liquidity crises, and the potential investment opportunities arising from market fluctuations. Group 1: Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced a significant decline of nearly 3% from Monday to Thursday, followed by a rebound on Friday, but still ended the week down over 2% [3][4]. - The volatility was more pronounced in the Asia-Pacific and European markets, with A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, and Japanese stocks fluctuating over 4% during the week [5]. - Other asset classes also showed considerable volatility, with gold retreating 7-8% from its peak and commodities like oil experiencing even larger declines [7]. Group 2: Liquidity Crisis - Typically, different asset classes do not move in tandem, but liquidity crises can lead to simultaneous fluctuations across global assets [11]. - Recent concerns about the uncertainty of interest rate cuts in December have heightened fears of a liquidity crisis, especially as the year-end approaches [13][14]. - During liquidity crises, correlations between different asset classes tend to increase, with small-cap stocks, growth stocks, and cryptocurrencies being particularly sensitive to liquidity changes [15]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite the short-term volatility, liquidity crises usually do not last long and tend to resolve within a few weeks [17]. - Positive news regarding potential interest rate cuts in December led to a rebound in global markets on Friday, with some Chinese concept stocks listed in the U.S. also seeing gains [18]. - The article suggests that if global assets become undervalued due to short-term fluctuations, it presents a good investment opportunity [23]. Group 4: Global Stock Index Insights - The article mentions a star rating system for global stock markets, indicating that in previous years like 2018, 2020, and 2022, the markets were rated as undervalued [24]. - Currently, the global stock market is rated around 3.2 stars, indicating a moderate level of valuation [26]. - There are global stock index funds available in overseas markets, but currently, there are no such funds in mainland China. However, a global index advisory portfolio has been introduced to simulate similar effects [28][29]. Group 5: Book Promotion - The article promotes a newly released book titled "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which has gained significant popularity and is noted for its comprehensive insights into stock market investments [34]. - The book emphasizes the importance of including a certain proportion of stock assets in family portfolios for long-term wealth accumulation [35].