（原标题：绥芬河：向北开放的"春节流量密码"｜故乡里的中国） 经济观察报记者 王雅洁 从哈尔滨出发，D字头列车一路向东，穿行在完达山脉的茫茫林海雪原间。两个多小时后，列车抵达中 俄边境线上的绥芬河。 这座总人口十万左右的小城，正迎来一个特殊春节，2026年是中俄双向免签政策全面落地后的首个春 节。 与往年不同，口岸联检大厅里，不再只仅有扛着大包小包的"倒爷"面孔，还有 多了拖家带口的旅游团、拎着滑雪板的年轻人、背着相机的中年夫妇。他们从俄罗斯的符拉迪沃斯托 克、哈巴罗夫斯克、莫斯科等地而来，在这个中国农历新年前夕，涌入这座边境山城。 几个俄罗斯面孔拖着行李箱，踩着冰碴走进旁边的贸易市场。裹着军大衣的搬运工蹲在台阶上抽烟，眯 着眼看着来往人流。今年来此的俄罗斯人，手里拎的不再是清一色的超大编织袋，有人只背着一个双肩 包，有人手里攥着手机，用翻译软件和商贩讨价还价。 这座因路而兴、因商而活的边境山城，正经历一场从"过货"到"过人+过货"的双轮驱动转型。免签红利 带来的跨境人气，正在转化成实实在在的贸易增量。对于当地人来说，这个春节，注定与以往不同。 百年口岸 一百二十年前，随着中东铁路的贯通，这个原本只有几户人家 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6][9]. Core Insights - Lingnan Holdings is a comprehensive tourism company with a national and diversified business development strategy, focusing on travel agency operations, hotel management, and related tourism industry services [5][11]. - The tourism market is showing strong recovery, with domestic travel expected to reach 5.62 billion trips in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [26][30]. - The company has completed a nationwide layout for its travel agency business, with over 200 stores across China, and is expanding its hotel business with new projects and rooms [5][40]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Lingnan Holdings operates as a major tourism industry platform, integrating travel, accommodation, and other tourism-related services, with a focus on innovation and capital management [5][15]. - The company is controlled by the Guangzhou State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, ensuring a stable shareholding structure [16]. Business Performance - The company expects revenues of 4.967 billion, 5.602 billion, and 6.277 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.26%, 12.80%, and 12.03% [9][10]. - The travel agency segment is projected to contribute over 70% of the company's revenue, with significant growth anticipated in both domestic and outbound tourism [40][49]. Market Trends - The inbound tourism market is recovering rapidly, with inbound visitors expected to reach 131.9 million in 2024, a 60.8% increase year-on-year [30][33]. - The company is actively leveraging new policies to boost inbound tourism, including tax refund policies and visa exemptions [50]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts a net profit of 135 million, 182 million, and 235 million RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with growth rates of -10.22%, 35.04%, and 28.90% respectively [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 65.18, 48.27, and 37.45 for the next three years [9][10]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its hotel management and operation business, with a focus on brand development and strategic partnerships to enhance its market presence [55][70]. - Lingnan Holdings is diversifying its tourism offerings, including technology integration in travel services and expanding into duty-free operations [68][72].

Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel, a leading one-stop travel platform in China, was formed through the merger of two major online travel agencies, eLong and Tongcheng Network, focusing on the lower-tier markets [1] - The company has leveraged its strategic merger to achieve ecological synergy in traffic entry and supply chain, establishing itself as the third force in the OTA industry [1] - eLong, an early OTA platform, focused on accommodation bookings in second and third-tier cities, while Tongcheng initially specialized in B2B services before transitioning to a consumer-facing platform [1] OTA Industry - The tourism environment is experiencing a strong recovery, with domestic travel consumption showing resilience and outbound travel continuing to recover [1] - The OTA sector is benefiting from high demand resilience, the establishment of online booking habits, and an increasing share of young and independent travelers [1] - In 2021, the market shares of major players were 36% for Ctrip, 21% for Meituan, and 15% for Tongcheng, indicating a differentiated competitive landscape [1] Competitive Advantages - Tongcheng focuses on the lower-tier markets, benefiting from support from major shareholder Tencent in terms of traffic and inventory supply [1] - The company has established a robust supply chain, covering over 720 airlines, 390 million hotels, and various travel services, enhancing its resource availability [1] - The user base is expanding in lower-tier cities, with 70% of new paid users from non-first-tier cities, indicating significant growth potential in this segment [1] Growth Highlights - The company is deepening its supply chain resources through investments and acquisitions, particularly in the upstream tourism resource sector [1] - Tongcheng has established a hotel management business and is expanding its brand matrix, with over 2,500 hotels under management [1] - The acquisition of Wanda Hotel Management and travel agency business enhances its market positioning and capitalizes on the recovery of outbound travel [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [5][14]. Core Insights - The travel economy is thriving, with resilient consumer spending on travel, indicating significant growth potential in the tourism sector. The OTA industry is experiencing improved operational ecology and a more favorable competitive landscape. The strategic partnerships with major shareholders Tencent and Ctrip provide low-cost traffic and resource sharing, enhancing stability and growth prospects. The company is expanding its tourism value chain through acquisitions and developing its hotel management business as a second growth curve, benefiting from the recovery of outbound travel. The company's profitability is on an upward trajectory due to optimized user marketing strategies and improved ROI from outbound travel. The report anticipates revenue growth from 197 billion to 260 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, with adjusted net profits increasing from 33 billion to 46 billion CNY during the same period [5][10][12]. Company Overview - The company, formed from the merger of two leading online travel platforms, has established itself as a dominant player in the OTA sector, particularly in lower-tier markets. The merger has allowed for a deep integration of user resources and supply chains, enhancing its competitive position against major rivals [9][22][25]. OTA Industry Analysis - The current tourism environment is robust, with domestic travel showing steady growth. The OTA sector is well-positioned to benefit from the high resilience of travel demand, the establishment of online booking habits, and the increasing preference for personalized travel experiences among younger consumers. The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with major players focusing on differentiated strategies to capture market share [10][35][44]. Competitive Advantages - The company leverages its partnerships with Ctrip for resource sharing and Tencent for low-cost customer acquisition through its ecosystem. It has a strong supply chain, covering over 720 airlines and 390 million hotels, which enhances its service offerings. The focus on lower-tier cities is expected to drive user growth, with a significant portion of new users coming from non-first-tier cities [11][29][36]. Growth Highlights - The company is deepening its supply chain through acquisitions and investments, particularly in hotel management and travel agency businesses. This strategy aims to capture growth opportunities in the recovering outbound travel market. The report highlights the potential for improved profitability as marketing strategies and operational efficiencies are optimized [12][66].