资源品牛市，继续看好 20250824 摘要 中国高收益无风险资产稀缺，叠加资本市场改革提升可投资性，吸引超 高净值、高净值人群及实业资本入市，推动股市上涨。散户入市意愿虽 低，但未来或随无风险收益率下沉及改革推进而增加。 中国经济转型在人工智能、集成电路等领域取得进展，降低经济不确定 性，增强市场信心。无风险收益下沉促使资金涌向股票等资产管理需求 旺盛领域，推动市场整体上行。 预计 2025 年中国市场上升动力来自经济转型加速、无风险收益下沉和 资本市场改革。即使市场短暂调整，整体趋势仍然向好。 美联储降息预期升温，中美或进入宽松共振期。中国可能通过中国版 QE（央行购买长端国债）投放流动性，而非 LPR 降息，利好周期品投 资机会。 推荐关注金融（券商、银行、保险）、成长股（港股互联网传媒、创新 药、国防军工、算力、国潮品牌）、零售化妆品及周期品（有色金属、 化工、钢铁、建材）等板块。 中国经济转型对股市有何影响？ 中国经济转型加快，在人工智能、集成电路、创新药物以及国防军工领域取得 了显著进展。这些积极表现降低了中国经济的不确定性，提高了经济能见度。 随着这些领域的发展，中国经济的不确定性逐步下降，使得 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - Economic growth in July showed an overall slowdown, with policy-driven sectors performing well due to equipment upgrades, appliance replacements, and major infrastructure projects [3] - Durable goods consumption and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries maintained high growth rates, while extreme weather, high base effects, and declining external demand hindered project construction and production in some sectors [3] - The real estate sector is still in a downturn, indicating that internal recovery momentum is not yet solid [3] - Future economic recovery requires continued and enhanced consumer stimulus policies, optimized funding allocation for infrastructure, and increased support for demand in the real estate market [3] Capital Market Strategy - The shift in valuation logic for the Chinese stock market is moving from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, with expectations for A/H stock indices to reach new highs [5][7] - Institutional changes are crucial for improving the investability of the Chinese stock market and altering societal perceptions of asset value [8][9] - Recent reforms aim to enhance investor returns, improve corporate governance, and encourage share buybacks, which are expected to increase investor confidence and market performance [9][10] - The establishment of a stable market mechanism is seen as a "firewall" that reduces risk perceptions and encourages long-term capital investment [10][11] Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed since mid-June, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate and U.S. trade policies [15] - The widening interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. has led to liquidity tightening, negatively impacting stock performance [15] - The decline in popularity of key sectors and a slowdown in capital inflows have contributed to the weaker performance of the Hong Kong market [16] - Despite recent underperformance, the outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations for recovery driven by AI applications and consumer trends [16]