Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various commodities and markets, with most commodities expected to show an oscillatory trend, and some showing a tendency of oscillating strongly or weakly. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy environments, and geopolitical events [3]. Summary by Category Financial - **Stock Index**: In a market with shrinking volume, potential lifting of the ban on share sales and reduction pressure, and a policy window period, funds are congested and waiting to be released. A dumbbell - shaped strategy of looking at the long - term and trading in the short - term is recommended, with an oscillatory trend [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank conducts treasury bond trading, and subsequent aggregate monetary policy tools may be further implemented. In the fourth quarter, the allocation demand of institutional investors may increase seasonally, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly. Currently, opportunities for curve steepening and positive spreads are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Attention should be paid to the release of US PMI and ADP employment data this week. The price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4400], and that of London silver in the range of [53, 60], showing an oscillatory trend [3]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Supply constraints persist, and supply - disturbing factors are increasing, so the copper price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are stable, so the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly. In the medium - term, the marginal increase in supply is limited, and demand has certain resilience, so the price center is expected to rise [3]. - **Alumina**: The current supply - demand is in excess, but the valuation is in a low - level range, so it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Zinc**: Recently, the inventory of LME zinc has increased significantly, but the "short squeeze" has not eased significantly. Entering the off - season of consumption, downstream demand for zinc ingots is weakening, and supply remains high. However, the export window for domestic zinc ingots has opened, and domestic inventory is decreasing. The zinc price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Tin**: With the current tightness in the ore end, the bottom support for the tin price is strong, so it is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Lead**: Currently at the end of the traditional peak consumption season, but the replacement of old cars and electric bicycles is still ongoing. The orders for lead - acid batteries have improved, and the procurement demand for lead - zinc is expected to remain high. Recently, many primary and secondary lead smelters have carried out maintenance, and lead ingot production has declined. The lead price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Nickel**: The current supply - demand is loose, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on the official announcement of next year's nickel ore quota in Indonesia, which may decrease, so there is uncertainty in supply, and the nickel price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: Due to the suppression of the price by the fundamentals during the seasonal off - season transition, but considering the long - term suppression of industry profits and the support from the ore end, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and cost changes [3]. New Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, with medium - term looseness and short - term shortages coexisting. The price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price, but the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to whether there are substantial policy signals at the end of the year and the process of new warrant registration [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: If the silicone industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will further weaken, and the inventory pressure may increase again. However, the short - term market sentiment is volatile. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the progress of new warrant registration [3]. - **Cobalt**: The conflict in eastern Congo has escalated, and although it has not affected cobalt mining for the time being, the potential risks are expected to increase, so the cobalt price is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Although the fundamentals of coking coal have slightly deteriorated, the current valuation of the futures market is too low, and the low - production state in China will continue. The downstream has strong expectations of replenishing inventory, and the spot price has bottom support. The near - month contract price is expected to oscillate, and the far - month contract is expected to oscillate strongly [3]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals of coke are still healthy, and the price mainly follows the cost of coking coal. In the case of the continued weakening of raw material spot prices, the current round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but there are still expectations of winter inventory replenishment. The continuous implementation of multiple rounds of price cuts is less likely, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal [3]. - **Iron Ore**: There is still a seasonal decline expectation for molten iron output, the rigid demand support is gradually weakening, and the inventory replenishment demand has not been significantly released. After the previous price increase, there is insufficient support for further upward movement. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand side still has resilience, and inventory continues to decline, but the pressure of high - year - on - year inventory remains, and the fundamental contradiction has not been resolved. The Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, and the macro - environment is still warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level, but the upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Rebar**: The fundamentals of rebar have continued to improve recently. The National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on the cost determination of disorderly price competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, there are still expectations of overseas interest rate cuts, and the Sino - US presidential call sent a positive signal, and the macro - environment is warm. The futures price has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the inventory level of rebar is still high year - on - year, and as the off - season deepens, the demand expectation is still under pressure, and the fundamental highlights are limited. The upward space of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate widely at a low level [3]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The firm cost supports the bottom of the silicon ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand is still loose, and the price increase is weak. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The main - contract futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of raw material prices and settlement electricity prices [3]. - **Manganese Silicate**: The cost of manganese silicate still has support, but the market supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure on the price is large. The cost transfer to the downstream is difficult. The futures price is expected to operate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices [3]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, the improvement in demand is obvious, and the fundamentals have improved, but the improvement is limited. Only when subsequent cold - repair is further implemented can the glass price continue to recover. Otherwise, the price may decline under the pressure of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. In the long - term, due to the increasingly strict environmental protection requirements, the supply side will face clearance and cost increase, and the far - month valuation may rebound [3]. - **Soda Ash**: In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of soda ash have improved to some extent. If the production remains low after the mid - stream inventory reduction, there may be a short - term positive feedback, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, there will still be low - cost production capacity coming on - stream, and the supply - demand surplus will intensify. The price needs to continue to decline to suppress production [3]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: It is oscillating and waiting for the guidance of the OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical factors [3]. - **Natural Gas**: The European natural gas price is oscillating, and the US natural gas price may be strong in the short - term [3]. - **Steam Coal**: Attention should be paid to the impact of supply - side policies and the change in inventory replenishment rhythm. The medium - and long - term reasonable price range of 570 - 770 still has great reference value [3]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [3]. - **LPG**: Attention should be paid to whether the optimistic expectations for Saudi Arabia on December 8 can be fulfilled. Currently, the basis is continuously low, the pressure on refining margins is increasing, and the upward space of the spot price is expected to be relatively limited. The upward space of the futures price should not be overly optimistic. Attention should be paid to the generation of warrants [3]. Chemicals - **Benzene Ethylene**: The inventory accumulation pressure of pure benzene in December is still being realized, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [3]. - **PX**: In the short - term, it is greatly affected by sentiment and cost. The price is expected to operate in the range of [6650, 6950], and the PXN is expected to oscillate in the range of [250, 290] US dollars per ton [3]. - **PTA**: It is greatly affected by cost and market sentiment. In the short - term, it will oscillate following the cost, and the price will be sorted in the range of [4650, 4850]. The processing margin of the 01 contract can be operated in the range of [220, 300] yuan per ton [3]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate in the low - level range in the short - term, and the upward elasticity of the price is obviously pressured. The EG01 - 05 spread can be cautiously reverse - arbitraged at high levels, and the operation space is [-75, -100] [3]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price of short - fiber fluctuates with the raw material, and the processing margin will fluctuate between 950 - 1100 yuan per ton. A short - PF and long - TA position can be lightly established [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing margin has strong support at the short - term range bottom, but the upward pressure is also large. It is expected to operate in the range of [400, 550], and the absolute price of bottle chips will fluctuate with the raw material [3]. - **Methanol**: After the overseas fluctuation information is confirmed, the futures price quickly rebounded to fulfill the expectation. After the rebound this week, the upward momentum of the methanol futures price has weakened. Attention should be paid to whether the digestion trend of coastal inventory can continue, and it is expected to oscillate [3]. - **PP and PE**: The upward space is limited, and they should be regarded as range - bound. The change in maintenance is still the key point of observation [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The electricity price in December has decreased, and the cost of caustic soda has decreased by 80 yuan per ton, opening the downward space of the futures price. If the low - profit situation promotes upstream production cuts or the warrant logic before delivery intensifies, the futures price may stabilize [3]. - **PVC**: The 01 contract is facing position - taking games in the short - term and shows a small - scale rebound. In the long - term, if there are no positive factors such as upstream production cuts due to low profits, increased exports, or unexpected policies, the futures price may return to a weak trend [3]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, which is difficult to change. After the inspection of the December reserve progress, the short - term reserve push may return to the normal progress, and this demand support is relatively stable in the long - term. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the overall progress of off - season storage [3]. Agriculture Feed and Livestock - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. The import crushing margin has been repaired, and soybean procurement has accelerated. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is slowly decreasing seasonally, and downstream customers are placing orders at low - level futures prices, with increased spot trading volume and a rising basis. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the contract roll [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Before the effective repair of downstream and mid - stream inventories, the price is likely to oscillate at a high level. It is necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of downstream supply tension [3]. - **Pig**: In the near - term, the pig price will continue to be weak, as the fourth - quarter pig production is still in the period of high - capacity realization, and the end - of - year pressure to sell large pigs is increasing. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture is guiding enterprises to cut production, and the continuous loss of breeding profits is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The far - month contract price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to the reverse - arbitrage strategy opportunity [3]. Soft Commodities - **Apple**: Against the background of strong support for the spot price, combined with the expectations of Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking and possible weather speculation, the futures price is relatively firm, and the sentiment is optimistic. Attention can be paid to the low - long opportunity after a pull - back, and subsequent attention should be paid to the weather changes in the producing areas. The price is expected to oscillate strongly for the time being [3]. - **Rubber**: It is not the time for a trending market, and the current price is closer to the upper pressure level. In terms of arbitrage, the RU - MR spread reached a phased high last week, and one can choose to exit and wait and see [3]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate in a range; in the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate strongly. It is advisable to go long at a low price [3]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market is mainly about the game of warrants, and the paper pulp futures price is expected to oscillate widely [3]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Since the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. The operation strategy is to go short on rallies [3]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to oscillate [3].

2025年12月1日 中信期货研究所 商品策略团队 | 周度观点汇总 | 板块 | 品种 | 近期观点 | 中期展望 | 曝光 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场缩量状态、潜在解禁与减持压力,叠加政策空窗期,资金拥挤等待释放,以哑铃结构看长做短。 | 震荡 | 股指 | 0 | 金融 | 国债 | 央行董启国债买卖，后续总量型货币政策工具也可能进一步落地，四季度配置型机构配置需求可能奉节性增大，预计使市震荡偏强。当前建议曲线走陡及正套机会。 | 震荡偏强 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 周内关注美国PMI、ADP就业数据披露。周内伦敦金价格关注【4000,4400】，伦敦银价格关注【53,60】。 | 0 | 贵金属 | 白银 | 周内关注美国PMI、ADP就业数据披露。周内伦敦金价格关注【4000,4400】，伦敦银价格关注【53,60】。 | 震荡 | 0 | | 铜 | 震荡偏强 | 铜供应约束仍存,且供应扰动因素在增加,我们认为铜价走势震荡偏强。 | 铝 | 短期宏观情绪反复叠加基本面稳健,预计铝价维 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the stock index futures market, use a dumbbell structure to cope with the market. The market is expected to be under pressure and stable before the main line becomes clear. December中下旬 may be a potential turning point. In the short term, use a dumbbell structure to deal with the market [1][7]. - In the stock index options market, adopt a covered call strategy for defense. The market style is rotating, and no capital main line has been formed yet. It is recommended to continue holding the covered call strategy [2][7]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the funding factor may support the bullish sentiment. The bond market is currently volatile, and the market space may not be opened yet. Towards the end of the year, the bond market allocation power may remain strong, and there is a possibility of further implementation of loose monetary policies. The bond market is expected to be volatile with a bullish bias [3][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: Use a dumbbell structure to cope with the market. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different basis and spread changes, and the total positions have also changed. The market is expected to be under pressure and stable before the main line is clear. December中下旬 may be a potential turning point. Short - term strategy is to hold IM + dividend [7]. - **Logic**: The equity market on Thursday continued to be weak, with coal, new energy, and petrochemical sectors leading the decline. The trading volume of the price - increase chain is at a high level, and the divergence among funds has intensified. The trading volume is around 1.7 trillion, and the turnover rate is at the bottom, indicating low participation. After the overnight rebound of the US and Japanese stocks, the market preference continued to decline, implying a strong profit - taking demand [1][7]. Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: Adopt a covered call strategy for defense. The total turnover of each option variety decreased by 6.70%, and the liquidity is at a relatively low level since October. The trading volume decline indicates that the market is not overly pessimistic. It is recommended to continue holding the covered call strategy [2][7]. - **Logic**: The equity index fluctuated weakly yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.40%. The market style is rotating, and no capital main line has been formed [2][7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The funding factor may support the bullish sentiment. The trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed. The bond market is currently volatile, and towards the end of the year, it is expected to be volatile with a bullish bias. Operational suggestions include trend strategy (volatile with a bullish bias), hedging strategy (pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis), basis strategy (pay attention to basis widening), and curve strategy (the curve may remain steep) [7][8][10]. - **Logic**: Treasury bond futures rose and fell differently yesterday. The central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 10 billion yuan. Due to the weakening of tax - period factors, the funding situation has eased, and the funding rate has declined slightly, which may support the bullish sentiment, especially for the short - end. The long - end TL variety may be affected by the expectation of intensified real - estate policies [3][7][10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report lists the economic data of the EU, China, and the US from November 19 - 20, 2025, including CPI, core CPI, LPR, unemployment claims, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng conducted research in Hubei and Hunan from November 18 - 20, emphasizing the promotion of foreign trade quality improvement, the construction of a high - standard logistics system, and the support of high - quality development of the manufacturing industry [12]. - Shenzhen will conduct a bond auction on November 24. The 2025 Shenzhen Special Bond (Sixty - fourth Issue) plans to issue 6.52 billion yuan with a 10 - year term, and the funds are intended for the Shenzhen government investment guidance fund. This year, many places have issued special bonds to local government investment funds, with a total scale exceeding 50 billion yuan [13][14]. - Since November, more than 15 bond funds have suffered large - scale redemptions, mainly pure - bond funds. The new - issue market for bond funds is also cold. In contrast, equity products have shown strong capital - attracting ability, with a net subscription of 143.623 billion yuan for equity ETFs since October [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the text.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The stock market showed resilience with a low - open and high - close trend, while the bond market still has positive factors. November is a period of oscillatory digestion for the stock market, and there may be opportunities for re - layout after December. The bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views (1) Stock Index Futures - The market opened low and closed high, showing resilience. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the spreads between current and next - month contracts also had changes. Total positions increased. Micro - cap + dividend styles were dominant. November is an oscillatory digestion period, and it is advisable to hold IM + dividend in the short term [7]. (2) Stock Index Options - During the rebound, there were style differences. The trading volume of the options market increased by 2.78% compared with the previous day, and the 50ETF skewness index reached around 120. It is recommended to view it as an oscillatory market and choose to sell call options for hedging defense [2][7]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - Long - term bond yields showed a V - shape. Most treasury bond futures contracts declined, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.08%, the 10 - year and 2 - year main contracts down 0.01%, and the 5 - year main contract remaining flat. The central bank's operations had a short - term negative impact on the bond market, but the fundamental environment is still favorable, and the bond market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish. Different trading strategies are recommended [3][8][9]. 2. Economic Calendar - The October SPGI manufacturing PMI in China was 50.6, lower than the forecast of 50.9. The October ISM manufacturing PMI in the US was 48.7, lower than the forecast of 49.5. The October ADP employment change in the US was 4.2 million, higher than the forecast of 2.5 million. Upcoming data include China's October trade balance in US dollars and the US November University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - Starting from November 10, 2025, at 13:01, China will stop implementing the additional tariffs on some US - originated imported goods and continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for one year, retaining the 10% rate. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5577 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4922 billion yuan [10][11]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The risk appetite in the market has increased. The stock index futures are expected to rise moderately, the stock index options show more upside potential for dividend and small - cap sentiment, and the risk preference improvement suppresses the performance of the bond market [1]. - For stock index futures, the market rose moderately on Monday, with anti - involution trading as the main line. The bank sector has been falling recently, and the possibility of a shift to the scenario of "funds flowing into sectors with improved or reversed prosperity" is more likely. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [1][7]. - For stock index options, the trading volume decreased but remained highly liquid. Some sentiment indicators are at high levels. The dividend + small - cap dumbbell configuration has prominent value. It is recommended to use the dumbbell configuration idea to layout bull spreads and consider covered calls for other varieties [2][8][9]. - For treasury bond futures, they closed down across the board yesterday. The weak performance of the bond market may be due to the improvement of risk preference. It is necessary to be cautious about the bond market, especially the long - end bonds, and appropriate attention can be paid to long - end short - hedging operations [3][8][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Moderate upward movement. The basis of IF, IH, IC, IM contracts changed, and the spread between current and next - month contracts also changed. The total positions of IF and IH decreased, while those of IC and IM increased. The market rose moderately on Monday, with anti - involution trading as the main line. The bank sector's decline may be due to the shift of funds. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [7]. Stock Index Options - **View**: Higher upside potential for dividend and small - cap sentiment. The trading volume decreased by 14.72% to 53.98 billion yuan but remained highly liquid. Some sentiment indicators are at high levels. The dividend + small - cap dumbbell configuration has prominent value. It is recommended to use the dumbbell configuration idea to layout bull spreads and consider covered calls for other varieties [2][8][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: Risk preference improvement suppresses the bond market performance. The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, TL contracts changed. The long - end TL performance was relatively weak. The bond market closed down across the board, and the 10Y and 30Y bond yields increased. The weak performance may be due to the improvement of risk preference. It is recommended to be cautious about the trend, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis, basis widening, and curve steepening [3][8][10]. (2) Economic Calendar - On July 21, 2025, China's 1 - year and 5 - year loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50% respectively. China's June全社会 electricity consumption annual rate was 5.4%, higher than the previous value of 4.4% [11]. (3) Important Information and News Tracking - The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged. The State Council announced the "Housing Rental Regulations". Shangwei New Materials had 9 consecutive daily limit up, rising more than 410% [11]. (4) Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [12]. - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not detailed in the provided content [28].