汽车 自主出口先锋，国内电动、智能化整合初见成效 奇瑞汽车（09973.HK） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2025 年 11 月 26 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：何俊艺 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 163,205 | 269,897 | 289,717 | 325,061 | 359,124 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 76% | 65% | 7% | 12% | 10% | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | 11,953 | 14,135 | 17,345 | 21,857 | 24,337 | | Email：hejy02@zts.com.cn | | 增长率 yoy% | | 91% | 18% | 23% | 26% | 11% | | | ...

Core Insights - Xiaomi is establishing a new primary department, the Architecture Department, to focus on the next-generation technology architecture for smart electric vehicles, reporting directly to Lei Jun [1][3][19] - This strategic move is aimed at laying a solid foundation for future vehicle iterations, allowing for shared core technology advantages and reduced R&D costs [1][12][20] Group 1: Strategic Importance - The Architecture Department's establishment signifies a rare level of importance placed on technological foresight within the automotive industry, typically relegated to secondary departments [3][19] - By integrating R&D needs from the outset, Xiaomi aims to avoid high costs associated with extensive component redevelopment, as seen with the YU7 project [9][12] Group 2: Financial Position and Investment - Xiaomi has a substantial cash reserve of 108 billion yuan, enabling it to sustain high R&D investments without immediate profitability concerns [4][6] - Despite significant revenue growth of 230.3% year-on-year in Q2, with earnings reaching 20.6 billion yuan, the company still faces cumulative losses of 800 million yuan for the first half of the year [9][8] Group 3: Market Performance - Xiaomi's SU7 has surpassed BYD Han in sales, becoming the best-selling model in the mid-to-large sedan market, while the YU7 is closely competing with Tesla Model Y in the 300,000 yuan electric SUV segment [6][9] - The SU7 Ultra has set records in various performance categories, demonstrating the effectiveness of Xiaomi's investment in product capabilities [6][18] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The automotive industry is experiencing a price war, with companies needing to focus on structural efficiency rather than merely reducing prices [13][21] - Competitors like BYD and GAC Toyota have successfully implemented platform architectures that significantly reduce production costs and enhance vehicle adaptability [14][16] Group 5: Future Challenges - Xiaomi's future vehicle models, including a new range of extended-range SUVs, will require a flexible architecture that meets diverse consumer needs, balancing performance with comfort [18][22] - The challenge lies in creating a unified technical foundation that can support various vehicle types while maintaining cost efficiency and market competitiveness [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the formation of the brand moat for the company in the high-end market and the competitive landscape, highlighting the potential for sales and profit growth through brand barriers [1][2] Group 1: High-End Market Position - The company holds the leading market share among domestic brands in the segment priced above 250,000 yuan, approximately 10% [1] - The high-end market space for vehicles priced above 250,000 yuan is projected to be 3.807 million units in 2024, showing a year-on-year decline of 5.9% [1] - The brand moat is established through a strong brand identity that is not easily surpassed by imitation products, supported by sales volume and intelligent technology capabilities [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Product Development - The company is addressing two major pain points in pure electric products: range anxiety and charging anxiety, by providing industry-leading solutions [1] - As of June 15, 2025, the company has invested in 2,451 supercharging stations nationwide, enhancing the convenience of charging and potentially increasing sales of pure electric products [1] - The launch of new pure electric models, i8 and i6, is expected to further support the company's growth trajectory [1] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The MindVLA technology integrates spatial, language, and behavioral intelligence, enabling vehicles to possess human-like multi-dimensional cognitive abilities [2] - AI-enabled smart cabins and driving capabilities are anticipated to provide passengers with a revolutionary product experience, enhancing the company's competitive edge in a homogenized high-end market [2] - The technological advantages are expected to strengthen the brand image and create a more solid moat for the company, leading to higher valuation potential [2] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 158.3 billion yuan, 193.0 billion yuan, and 226.9 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 10.12 billion yuan, 14.57 billion yuan, and 18.41 billion yuan for the same years [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are expected to be 20, 14, and 11 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, based on the closing price of 101.9 HKD per share on June 19, 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The Industrial Internet ETF (159778) has increased by 0.98%, with its underlying index, the CSI Industrial Internet Theme Index (931495), rising by 0.89% [1] - Notable stock performances include CATL (300750) up by 3.08%, Xinwangda (300207) up by 2.80%, and BYD (002594) up by 2.14% [1] - BYD has announced a unified payment term for suppliers to within 60 days to support the stability of the supply chain and promote high-quality development in the automotive industry [1] Group 2 - The CSI Industrial Internet Theme Index (931495) includes 50 listed companies involved in industrial internet hardware manufacturing, software development, and application services [2] - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index include BYD (002594), Northern Huachuang (002371), and Weichuan Technology (300124), collectively accounting for 47.11% of the index [2]

Core Insights - Yueda Kia reported a strong sales performance with April 2025 sales reaching 22,155 units, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year, and cumulative sales from January to April reaching 78,707 units, up 12.7% [1] - The company is focusing on integrating global resources with local market demands in China, emphasizing a long-term commitment to the market [1][15] - The automotive industry in China is shifting its competitive focus from electrification to intelligent capabilities, marking a new phase of competition [1] Sales and Production - In April 2025, Yueda Kia produced 22,200 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with cumulative production from January to April at 77,900 units, up 17.2% [1] - The company exported 12,791 engines in April, with a total of 43,129 engines exported from January to April, indicating robust growth in exports [1] Product Launches - The new Kia Sportage, known as the "global sales champion," was relaunched with a starting price of 115,800 yuan, setting a new value benchmark for compact SUVs [2] - The 2025 Kia Sportage features upgraded configurations tailored to Chinese consumers, including advanced comfort and intelligent driving assistance features [4] Strategic Initiatives - Yueda Kia is advancing its "oil-electric parallel" strategy while enhancing its export base in Yancheng, aiming for a global development framework [8] - The company has exported 418,000 vehicles since 2018, generating over $4.39 billion in export sales, with a diverse product matrix covering various segments [11] Future Plans - Yueda Kia plans to launch three high-quality new models in 2026 and will continue to develop electric vehicles based on Chinese consumer needs [13] - The company is enhancing its service network through partnerships with major dealers and online platforms to improve customer service experiences [13]