Core Insights - The domestic civil aviation market is experiencing a surge in travel demand as the summer travel season approaches, driven by various travel types such as summer vacations, family trips, and outbound travel [1][2] Group 1: Passenger Traffic Predictions - The domestic flight ticket bookings for July 2025 are projected to reach approximately 17.9 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 5% [2] - International flight ticket bookings have exceeded 7.74 million, marking a year-on-year growth of around 14% [2] - Major domestic routes include Beijing-Shanghai, Beijing-Guangzhou, and Guangzhou-Shanghai, with significant interest in travel to Xinjiang this summer [2] Group 2: Airline Operations and Capacity - Hainan Airlines plans to operate 30,435 flights during the summer season, transporting approximately 4.59 million passengers [2] - Eastern Airlines will execute over 1,150 passenger routes with an average of more than 3,200 flights daily, representing a 5% increase compared to 2024 [2][3] - China Southern Airlines aims to operate over 320,000 flights across 970 domestic and 260 international routes, with daily flights exceeding 3,000 during peak periods [3][4] Group 3: New Routes and Seasonal Adjustments - Xiamen Airlines is launching 24 seasonal routes to popular summer destinations, including new flights from major hubs to Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [5] - Sichuan Airlines is optimizing its domestic route network, adding and resuming over 10 routes, including direct flights from Chengdu to Hailar [5][6] - Eastern Airlines is introducing 38 new domestic routes, focusing on popular tourist regions such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [7] Group 4: Market Trends and Pricing - The aviation industry is witnessing an upward trend in domestic ticket prices, with strong performance during the May Day holiday expected to carry into the summer season [8] - Analysts suggest that the improved pricing environment and strong summer demand may lead to better-than-expected profitability for the aviation sector in the second and third quarters [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The report is optimistic about the aviation sector, anticipating a recovery in industry prosperity driven by the summer travel peak and favorable oil and exchange rates [2][28] - It recommends high-dividend Hong Kong-listed road stocks due to stable performance and low Hibor rates supporting dividend valuations [2] - The report notes increased volatility in the shipping sector, particularly in container shipping, while highlighting the need to focus on companies with stable earnings and high dividend yields [2] Aviation Sector - The report highlights strong demand during the May Day holiday, with daily passenger volume averaging 2.23 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.8% [20] - Domestic flight ticket prices have improved, with an average price of 730 RMB, up 0.8% year-on-year [15] - The supply of aircraft is expected to grow slowly, with a projected increase of only 2.8% in the passenger fleet by the end of 2024 [21] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation, China Eastern Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [28] Airport Sector - Airports are experiencing high growth in passenger traffic, particularly in southern China, with Baiyun Airport and Shenzhen Airport seeing year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 23.5% respectively [29] - The report emphasizes the need for airports to enhance their non-aeronautical revenue generation capabilities [37] - It suggests focusing on airports with lower capital expenditure, such as Capital Airport, for better investment value [37] Shipping Sector - Container shipping rates have increased significantly, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rising by 18.4% month-on-month in May [4] - The report anticipates further increases in shipping volumes and rates in June due to the easing of tariffs and seasonal demand [39] - It notes that while the crude oil tanker market is improving due to OPEC+ production increases, the dry bulk and product tanker markets remain weak [38] Road and Rail Sector - The report indicates that the road sector is benefiting from lower Hibor rates, which support dividend yields, and suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks like Wuhu Highway and Zhejiang Hu-Hangzhou-Ningbo [5] - The railway freight sector is experiencing weak demand, particularly for coal transport, with expectations of a recovery only in late June [5] Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is facing competitive pressures, with a year-on-year increase in parcel volume of 19.1% in April, but prices are declining [68] - The report suggests monitoring the upcoming peak season for potential changes in volume and pricing dynamics [68] - It highlights the need for cross-border logistics to adapt to evolving tariff conditions [68]

证券研究报告 受降雨天气影响，端午出行略显平淡 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 02 日│中国内地 动态点评 端午假期出行较为平淡，短途增速稍好于中长途 交通部预计，2025 年端午假期（5/31-6/2）累计全社会跨区域人员流动量达 到 6.57 亿人次，同比（24 年端午假期，下同）提升 3.0%，低于交通运输 部 5 月 29 日的初步预测 7.7%，也低于五一假期（yoy+7.9%）和春节假期 （yoy+5.8%）。我们认为出行较为平淡，主要由于南方地区雨水频繁，且今 年端午假期在高考前仅约一个星期，进一步抑制旅游出行。分出行方式来看， 公路客运量同比增长 3.1%，高于铁路和民航 2.3%/1.2%的增幅，三天假期 短途旅游需求稍好。结合子行业景气趋势，考虑暑运旺季，推荐航空板块， 首推中国国航 A/H，同时推荐皖通高速 A/H、浙江沪杭甬、粤高速 A。 航空：端午假期时长较短，同比增速低于总体 据交通部预计，端午假期民航客运量日均 186.7 万人次，同比增长 1.22%， 同比增速低于铁路/公路的 2.3%/3.1%，主要由于端午假期仅三天，对于中 长 途 的 航 空 出 行 催 化 作 用 较 ...

Group 1 - China Galaxy Securities believes that the A-share market is expected to show stronger resilience in the long term, reflecting a "self-centered" approach [1] - The report suggests three key investment directions: 1) Defensive attributes of dividend sectors with stable returns amid increasing external uncertainties [1] 2) Clear logic in the "technology narrative" of the A-share market, with potential catalytic opportunities in future industrial trends [1] 3) Investment opportunities in the large consumption sector supported by intensive policies to boost service consumption [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities indicates that the implementation of public fund reforms is likely to drive valuations in the banking sector [2] - The recent release of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Public Funds" by the CSRC strengthens the constraints on performance benchmarks, suggesting future fund allocations may align more closely with these benchmarks [2] - The report highlights that there is significant room for increased allocation to banks, with a nearly 10 percentage point deviation from the CSI 300 index expected by Q1 2025 [2] Group 3 - Huatai Securities expresses optimism for the airline industry during the summer travel peak, anticipating airlines will realize ticket prices and profit elasticity [3] - The report notes that the supply growth rate in the airline industry will remain low, combined with effective revenue management by airlines, leading to an expected increase in annual revenue levels [3] - Additionally, a year-on-year decline in oil prices is expected to further enhance airline profitability [3]