Group 1 - The core issue of service consumption recovery is that it is slower compared to goods consumption, with a significant gap in service consumption tendency compared to historical trends, indicating that income may not be the primary constraint on service recovery [2][8][107] - In 2024, the gap in per capita service consumption compared to historical trends is 2,093 yuan (13.9%), while the gap for goods consumption is only 458 yuan (2.9%) [2][8][107] - The increase in working hours, averaging 6 hours and 23 minutes per day in 2023, has reduced leisure time, which is crucial for service consumption [2][19][107] Group 2 - The increase in working hours has led to a concentration of consumption during holidays, but the legal holiday days are relatively few, with only 18 days mandated for 2025, significantly lower than Japan and South Korea [3][30][108] - The service sector is a non-trade sector, and insufficient effective supply will constrain the recovery of service consumption more than that of goods consumption [4][49][109] - Employment in the service sector has decreased compared to historical trends, indicating an excess supply gap, particularly in life services such as education and entertainment [4][60][109] Group 3 - The lack of entrepreneur confidence is a significant constraint on service supply, with high industry costs and increased debt pressure contributing to this issue [6][110][111] - Investment in the service sector, especially in life services, has not kept pace with profitability, indicating a cautious investment behavior among entrepreneurs [6][90][110] - The shift in investment logic from proactive to reactive, driven by profitability, has led to a slowdown in investment growth, particularly in the health and education sectors [7][90][110]

Group 1: Service Consumption Recovery - Service consumption recovery is slower compared to goods consumption, with a per capita service consumption gap of 2,093 yuan (13.9%) compared to historical trends, while goods consumption gap is only 458 yuan (2.9%) and optional goods consumption gap is 450 yuan (6.2%) [3] - The increase in working hours has led to a reduction in leisure time, with average paid labor time increasing by 2 hours daily, resulting in a weekly average of 44.7 hours in 2023, which is 13.9 hours more than in 2018 [3][21] - The concentration of consumption during holidays is increasing, with holiday sales growth of 6.8% during the 2024 May Day holiday, compared to a mere 3.7% for the same month’s retail sales [26] Group 2: Supply Constraints in Service Consumption - Insufficient effective supply in the service sector is causing slower recovery compared to goods consumption, with service employment numbers falling 3.8% below historical trends in 2023 [4][35] - The core service prices have been rising since 2022, indicating tighter supply compared to core goods prices, which are recovering better [4][35] - The supply recovery in life services, particularly in education and entertainment, is lagging, with employment in these sectors down by 6% and 2.8% respectively compared to historical trends [5][40] Group 3: Causes of Supply Constraints - Weak entrepreneur confidence is a significant factor limiting service supply, with investment in life services not keeping pace with profit margins, as seen in the entertainment sector with a sales profit margin of only 1.1% [6][53] - The cost rates in life services are high, with education and resident services at 109.4% and 104.8% respectively, reflecting a 15% and 13% increase since 2019 [7][63] - The cash flow ratio for the entertainment sector has decreased to an average of 19.8% in 2023-2024, indicating increased cash flow pressure and limiting supply expansion willingness [7][63]