1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable supply and improved demand, with seasonal accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand, with high industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,540 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,868 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 3,110 US dollars/ton, up 84 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,165 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The spread between the main and second - continuous contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 165 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spread between the main and second - continuous contracts of alumina was - 108 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan; the spread between the main and second - continuous contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 25 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum were 197,639 lots, down 1,843 lots; the main contract positions of alumina were 333,870 lots, down 7,930 lots; the main contract positions of cast aluminum alloy were 13,808 lots, up 9,803 lots [2] - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 50,325 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 490,975 tons, down 2,000 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventories were 245,140 tons, up 28,369 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 74,425 tons, up 357 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE warrants were 164,512 tons, up 8,979 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE registered warrants were 68,535 tons, up 1,452 tons [2] - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was - 43,884 lots, up 7,560 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.57, down 0.14 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 23,650 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum was 23,110 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [2] - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,485 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 22.32 US dollars/ton, up 3.45 US dollars; the basis of alumina was - 313 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 84%, down 1%; the alumina开工率 was 82.49%, down 1% [2] - **Demand and Supply Balance**: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was - 100 million tons, down 100 million tons [2] - **Prices and Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,950 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons; the export volume of alumina was 21 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of primary aluminum imports was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the production of primary aluminum exports was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.20 million tons, up 4 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.79%, up 0.48% [2] - **Output of Related Products**: The output of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.40 million tons, up 1.60 million tons; the output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2] - **Export Volume**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 54 million tons, down 3 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Production**: Automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate Index**: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 38.70%, down 0.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 31.44%, up 0.07% [2] - **Implied Volatility and Ratio**: The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 20.39%, up 0.0030; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.78, up 0.0016 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson was "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth could help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [2] - The State Council Executive Meeting studied policies and measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policies and measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and new policy - based financial instruments [2] - China's social logistics cost has been steadily decreasing for many years, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP in 2025 dropped to 13.9%, the lowest level since statistics began [2] - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, the highest level in six months, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [2] - China will build a "1 + N" policy system to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and introduce support policies for more than 10 specific fields [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the equity and precious metal markets have entered an adjustment phase, with a significant decline in market risk appetite. Coupled with the central bank's increased liquidity injection before the holiday to offset the pressure of cash withdrawal, the capital price remains low. In the short - term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly. However, there is no clear main line in the bond market before the holiday, market trading is light, and the downward space for yields is limited. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.06%, 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.14% respectively. T and TL main contract trading volumes decreased by 2217 and 25288 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes increased by 7777 and 10661 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2603 - 2606, T2603 - 2606, and TF2603 - 2606 increased, while others like TS2603 - 2606, T03 - TL03, etc. decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased, and the short positions also increased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS increased, while that of TL decreased [2] 3.2 Bond Market Conditions - **CTD Bond Net Price**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 250018.IB, 220025.IB, etc. all increased [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 1.00bp, while those of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds decreased by 0.10bp, 0.75bp, 1.00bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Conditions - **Short - Term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates increased by 14.50bp, 12.42bp, and 3.57bp respectively. Shibor overnight decreased by 0.70bp, while Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day increased by 7.00bp and 8.00bp respectively [2] - **LPR Interest Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR interest rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 1130 billion, the maturity scale was 750 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net investment of 380 billion [2] 3.5 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting studied policies and measures to promote effective investment, aiming to plan and promote a number of major projects in key areas [2] - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that macro - policies should be implemented in advance, and fiscal funds should be arranged as early as possible. Policy pre - research and reserve should be done well [3] - As of the end of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months [3] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On February 11 at 09:30, China's January CPI & PPI data will be released - On February 11 at 21:30, the US January non - farm payroll data will be released [4]

Group 1 - The State Council is researching policies to promote effective investment, focusing on major projects in infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [3] - The People's Bank of China and eight departments issued a joint statement reiterating the prohibition of virtual currency activities within the country, emphasizing strict regulations on the issuance of stablecoins linked to the RMB [4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has published guidelines for the regulation of asset-backed securities tokens issued overseas, emphasizing strict compliance for domestic assets [4] Group 2 - Significant inflows of capital into the US stock market led to a notable rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 50,000 points for the first time, closing at 50,115.67 points, a 2.47% increase [5] - The US and Iran have reached a consensus to continue negotiations regarding nuclear talks, marking a potential thaw in relations [5][18] - Major storage chip manufacturers are introducing a new contract model that includes "post-settlement" payments, which could significantly alter pricing rules in the global storage chip market [13] Group 3 - The CSRC reported that by the end of 2025, the domestic ETF market size is expected to reach approximately $860 billion, surpassing Japan to become the largest ETF market in Asia [9] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has revised its regulatory guidelines for underwriting violations, enhancing penalties for serious infractions [9] - The global semiconductor sales are projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time this year, with a year-on-year growth of 26% [13]