1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices entered an adjustment phase. The supply - side copper mine TC is at a record low, and the port inventory is seasonally low. Refined copper production is expected to remain high. Demand has recovered, but downstream procurement sentiment is still weak when prices rebound. Global visible inventories are starting to decline. The 232 investigation results in June will cause short - term disturbances. In the long - term, the long - cycle logic of copper supply - demand contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to long - term long - order layout opportunities, with the main contract focusing on the 97,000 - 98,000 pressure level [1]. Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand, and the overall contradiction is limited. The current contradiction in the zinc industry chain is concentrated between the mine end and the smelting end. The zinc mine TC in the first quarter of 2026 is weak. Although the smelting profit is under pressure, the smelting end has not seen large - scale production cuts due to high by - product profits. The demand side is relatively stable, and the processing industry's operating rate has continued to rise in the first quarter. If overseas prices strengthen, the zinc ingot export space may open again. Considering the low ratio of finished product inventory to raw material inventory in the processing industry, there is room for restocking. The domestic zinc ingot inventory pressure is limited. The zinc price is supported by smelting costs, and the downward space is limited. The main contract should pay attention to the support around 23,000 [5]. Tin - The supply - side tension has been significantly alleviated. The processing fees of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased, and the cumulative import volume of tin ore from January to February has increased significantly. The JFX exchange trading volume in February is expected to stabilize Indonesia's export level. The downstream consumption of tin is gradually recovering, with some traditional consumption being slightly weak, and the photovoltaic demand has slightly improved. With the market risk preference restored, the tin price is expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy long orders and pay attention to the downstream's acceptance of high - priced tin [8]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon still faces the pressure of over - supply. The cost side provides support, but the decline of polysilicon prices has spread panic to the industrial silicon sector. The supply elasticity of industrial silicon is large. Low - price and loss - making situations will suppress the resumption of production in the southwest region. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of production control, environmental protection, and cost - side fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to try long positions at low prices [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a cycle of over - supply, and the price will continue to be under pressure. Many enterprises have production increase expectations, which will open up the downward space for spot prices. The current spot price is approaching the unit cost and moving towards the cash cost. The market sentiment tends to trade for market - clearing. It is recommended to wait and see. If participating, consider trying long positions after the price stabilizes, but pay attention to position control and stop - loss settings [12]. Aluminum - The alumina industry is in a stage of relative over - capacity. The price is expected to fluctuate around the industry cost line in the long - term. The new low - cost capacity in Guangxi will be gradually released in the second quarter, which will put pressure on the spot price. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices in the short - term. The electrolytic aluminum price is supported by the supply - side due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. The LME aluminum inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic market demand has recovered. The domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking cycle in April. The short - term core operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [13]. Nickel - The nickel market has a complex situation. The Indonesian government plans to levy export taxes on nickel products, and the raw material supply is tight. The high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong, but the steel mills have a strong price - pressing attitude. The supply of refined nickel still has pressure. The overseas market is gently de - stocking, while the domestic market is still accumulating inventory. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 134,000 - 140,000 [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy price is driven by the cost of electrolytic aluminum. In the second quarter, the demand for casting aluminum alloy is seasonally weak, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight. The industry is in a weak - balance state. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23,000 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and it follows the electrolytic aluminum price. It is necessary to track macro events and domestic tax policy changes [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is affected by macro and raw material news. The raw material supply is tight, and the high - nickel pig iron price is stable and strong. The steel mills' production has increased significantly, and the demand is gradually recovering but the terminal acceptance is still weak. The short - term price is expected to maintain a strong - side shock, with the main contract reference range of 14,200 - 14,800 [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fell significantly. The policy news from Zimbabwe has affected the market sentiment. The fundamental data of lithium carbonate remains resilient, with both supply and demand increasing. The upstream salt - factory supply is gradually increasing, and the demand is generally optimistic. The social inventory has started to accumulate. The short - term market may adjust, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 153,000 - 160,000 [21]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 95,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is - 55 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference is - 251 yuan/ton, with a significant decline [1]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.153 million tons, a decrease of 24.95% month - on - month [1]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The import copper concentrate index is - 68.85 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.27% week - on - week. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory is 0.5747 million tons, an increase of 12.25% week - on - week. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate is 83.17%, an increase of 1.66% week - on - week; the recycled copper rod operating rate is 5.83%, a decrease of 8.99% week - on - week [1]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory is 0.4031 million tons, a decrease of 13.81% week - on - week; the bonded area inventory is 0.0582 million tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the SHFE inventory is 0.3591 million tons, a decrease of 12.64% week - on - week [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 23,430 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%. The import profit and loss is - 2,852 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166.67 yuan compared with the previous value [5]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the refined zinc production was 0.5046 million tons, a decrease of 9.99% month - on - month; the import volume was 0.0045 million tons, a decrease of 81.26% month - on - month; the export volume was 0.0039 million tons, an increase of 91.58% month - on - month [5]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The galvanizing operating rate is 58.88%, a decrease of 0.82% week - on - week; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate is 51.80%, an increase of 0.19% week - on - week; the zinc oxide operating rate is 55.50%, an increase of 0.14% week - on - week [5]. - **Inventory Data**: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China is 0.2482 million tons, a decrease of 2.74% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.115 million tons, a decrease of 0.67% day - on - day [5]. Tin - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 371,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.69%. The import profit and loss is - 6,623.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.90% [8]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the tin ore import volume was 17,144 tons, a decrease of 3.69% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 11,490 tons, a decrease of 23.91% month - on - month; the refined tin import volume was 2,168 tons, an increase of 96.91% month - on - month; the refined tin export volume was 1,216 tons, a decrease of 24.14% month - on - month [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHEF inventory is 8,400 tons, a decrease of 16.35% week - on - week; the social inventory is 9,102 tons, a decrease of 17.08% week - on - week; the SHEF warehouse receipt is 6,775 tons, a decrease of 3.75% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon is 9,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The basis (based on SI5530) is 795 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.42% [10]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production is 329,900 tons, an increase of 19.66% month - on - month; the Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 209,800 tons, an increase of 25.94% month - on - month; the Yunnan industrial silicon production is 14,800 tons, an increase of 10.86% month - on - month; the Sichuan industrial silicon production is 900 tons, an increase of DIV/0! month - on - month [10]. - **Inventory Data**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory is 133,900 tons, a decrease of 4.90% week - on - week; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory is 33,200 tons, an increase of 0.61% week - on - week; the social inventory is 560,000 tons, an increase of 1.27% week - on - week [10]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 38,500 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.91%. The main contract price is 35,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.69% [12]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The silicon wafer production is 11.38 GM, a decrease of 3.40% week - on - week; the multi - layer silicon production is 19,400 tons, an increase of 2.11% week - on - week [12]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon production is 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23.61% month - on - month; the polysilicon import volume is 1,600 tons, an increase of 54.97% month - on - month; the polysilicon export volume is 2,200 tons, an increase of 20.51% month - on - month [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The polysilicon inventory is 332,000 tons, a decrease of 3.49% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory is 26.98 CM, a decrease of 2.42% month - on - month; the polysilicon warehouse receipt is 11,030 tons, an increase of 0.09% day - on - day [12]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24,610 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.33%. The electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss is - 4,741 yuan/ton, an increase of 74.3 yuan compared with the previous value [13]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In March, the alumina production was 7.2974 million tons, an increase of 10.56% month - on - month; the domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8311 million tons, an increase of 10.73% month - on - month; the overseas electrolytic aluminum production was 2.5725 million tons, an increase of 8.46% month - on - month [13]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The alumina operating rate is 76.43%, a decrease of 0.27% week - on - week; the aluminum profile operating rate is 59.00%, an increase of 7.27% week - on - week; the aluminum cable operating rate is 66.00%, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week [13]. - **Inventory Data**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 1.373 million tons, an increase of 2.69% week - on - week; the Chinese aluminum rod social inventory is 0.3215 million tons, a decrease of 5.86% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 0.417 million tons, a decrease of 0.45% day - on - day [13]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 136,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 3,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.05% [14]. - **Cost Data**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel is 113,324 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% month - on - month; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrowon nickel is 141,713 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.34% month - on - month [14]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: The Chinese refined nickel production is 32,600 tons, a decrease of 7.45% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume is 23,394 tons, an increase of 84.63% month - on - month [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The SHFE inventory is 64,479 tons, an increase of 1.28% week - on - week; the social inventory is 89,808 tons, an increase of 1.54% week - on - week; the LME inventory is 281,526 tons, a decrease of 0.02% day - on - day [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 24,700 yuan/ton, with no change. The Jiangxi Baotai Network ADC12 - A00 price difference is - 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.24% [16]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In February, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 358,000 tons, a decrease of 41.31% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 209,300 tons, a decrease of 30.99% month - on - month; the scrap aluminum production was 504,600 tons, a decrease of 33.68% month - on - month [16]. - **Weekly Fundamental Data**: The recycled aluminum alloy operating rate is 31.34%, a decrease of 41.87% week - on - week; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate is 44.73%, a decrease of 23.59% week - on - week [16]. - **Inventory Data**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 33,700 tons,

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has cost support at the bottom and hedging and arbitrage pressure at the top. The spot price is stable, while the futures price has declined due to the failure to reach production control. In the second quarter, it is expected to fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. [1] Tin - In the short - term, tin prices may show a weak and volatile trend due to the Middle - East situation. In the long - term, there is a bullish logic. If the conflict shows signs of ending, long positions can be established at low prices. [2] Polysilicon - Polysilicon is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will continue to decline in April. The market is currently inactive, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] Copper - Copper prices have entered an adjustment phase. The supply - demand fundamentals have slightly improved, and the inventory pressure has weakened. However, the price is still suppressed. In the long - term, there may be opportunities for long - term long positions. [5] Zinc - Zinc is in a cycle of weak supply and demand. The smelting cost supports the zinc price, and there is potential for downstream restocking and export. The price is expected to have limited room for further decline, and opportunities for price rebound can be considered. [7] Nickel - The Indonesian policy and raw material contradictions support the nickel price, but the slow digestion of inventory restricts it. The nickel price is expected to run in a strong range. [9] Aluminum - Alumina is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. The price of electrolytic aluminum is supported by the Middle - East situation and is expected to run in the range of 23,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [11] Stainless Steel - The cost logic of stainless steel is strong, with support from news and raw materials. The demand is gradually recovering, but the terminal acceptance is still weak. It is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. [13] Lithium Carbonate - The supply - side news has boosted the market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals are still resilient. It is expected to run in a strong range. [15] Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to run in the range of 22,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton, following the trend of electrolytic aluminum. [17] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon remained unchanged on March 27 compared to March 26, while the basis of some varieties increased. [1] - **Monthly Spread**: The main contract price decreased by 1.26% on March 27 compared to March 26, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [1] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: National and regional industrial silicon production,开工率, and the production of related downstream products all decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon also decreased. [1] - **Inventory Change**: The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the social inventory increased slightly. [1] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased, while the SMM 1 tin premium decreased. [2] - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss**: The import loss decreased slightly, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged. [2] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The import of tin ore, the production of refined tin, and the开工率 of related enterprises changed. The export volume of refined tin decreased, while the export volume of Indonesian refined tin increased. [2] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories in SHEF, social, SHEF warehouse receipts, and LME all decreased. [2] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type polysilicon remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. [3] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract price increased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly. [3] - **Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly)**: The production of silicon wafers decreased, while the production of polysilicon increased on a weekly basis but decreased on a monthly basis. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed. [3] - **Inventory Change**: The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers decreased. [3] Copper - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of electrolytic copper decreased slightly, and the premium of some varieties changed. The refined - scrap price difference decreased significantly. [5] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of electrolytic copper decreased. The import copper concentrate index decreased, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic ports increased. The开工率 of electrolytic copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [5] Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the premium changed. The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [7] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import volume of refined zinc decreased, while the export volume increased. The开工 rates of related industries changed slightly. The social inventory of zinc ingots decreased, and the LME inventory decreased slightly. [7] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of nickel decreased, and the premium of some varieties decreased. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased slightly, and the futures import profit increased significantly. The Shanghai - London ratio increased. [9] - **Electrowinning Nickel Cost**: The costs of different production methods of electrowinning nickel changed. [9] - **New Energy Material Price**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the prices of other new energy materials remained unchanged. [9] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: The production of refined nickel decreased, while the import volume increased. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [9] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM A00 aluminum and Yangtze A00 aluminum increased. The prices of alumina in different regions increased slightly. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. Some monthly spreads changed. [11] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum decreased. The开工 rates of related industries changed. The inventories in different regions and exchanges changed. [11] Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless steel decreased slightly, and the basis decreased. The prices of some raw materials decreased slightly. [13] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China increased, while that in Indonesia decreased. The import, export, and net export volumes of stainless steel changed significantly. The inventories of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. [13] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of different types of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The basis decreased. The prices of lithium ore increased. [15] - **Monthly Spread**: Some monthly spreads changed. [15] - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased. The import volume decreased slightly, and the export volume increased. The capacity increased slightly, and the开工 rate decreased. The total inventory, downstream inventory, and smelter inventory decreased. [15] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The prices of different types of aluminum alloy increased. The average monthly price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased. Some monthly spreads changed. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: The production of recycled and primary aluminum alloy ingots, and the production of scrap aluminum decreased. The import and export volumes of unforged aluminum alloy ingots decreased. The开工 rates of related industries decreased. The social inventory, factory - finished inventory, and raw material inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The daily inventories in different regions changed. [17]

产业期现日报 厅 广发期货 投资次拍业名资格:证监许可 【2011】1202号 2026年1月27日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 420300 | 403250 | 17050 | 4.23% | | | SMM 1#锡开贴水 | -100 | 0 | -100 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 420800 | 403750 | 17050 | 4.22% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -245.00 | -189.00 | -56.00 | -29.63% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | 进口盈亏 | -6632.02 | -7675.70 | 1043.68 | 13.60% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.98 | 7.96 | - | - | | | 月间价差 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - Copper: Maintain a bullish stance on dips, with expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] - Aluminum: Positive outlook due to overseas rate - cut expectations, with supply - demand expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1] - Zinc: Suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7] - Nickel: Given the short - term weak fundamentals, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [8][9] - Stainless Steel: With a weak fundamental outlook, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [12] - Lead: Expect prices to oscillate between $17,100 - $17,600 next week, and be cautious due to low - warehouse receipt risks [14] - Tin: High - level oscillation is likely in the short term, and it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026 [17] - Industrial Silicon: Prices are expected to oscillate in December and move in a cyclical bottom - oscillation pattern in the long term [19] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term supply - demand is strong. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding intentions [21] Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Spread**: LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly, and copper prices exceeded $11,000. The structural supply - demand gap persists, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - **Domestic Situation**: High prices have curbed actual consumption, with a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are restricted [1] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the FOMC meeting in December. Maintain a bullish stance on dips, with expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Prices increased, and the spot basis declined. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, while aluminum products continued to reduce inventory [1] - **Supply - Demand**: Overseas rate - cut expectations are positive. Supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: Zinc prices rose, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined. The spot premium in the domestic market increased [5][6][7] - **Supply**: Domestic and imported TC are declining rapidly. Some smelters are under maintenance in December, with an expected output reduction of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [7] - **Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while US zinc imports have increased recently. The export window is opening [7] - **Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage and 01 - 03 positive arbitrage opportunities [7] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Prices were relatively stable, and both domestic and overseas inventories increased [8] - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is slightly reduced, demand is weak, and the Jinchuan premium is strong [8] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to short - term weak fundamentals [8][9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Prices were mostly stable, and inventory remained at a high level [12] - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and costs are relatively stable [12] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to weak fundamentals [12] Lead - **Price and Spread**: Prices rebounded. The refined - scrap spread returned to - 50 [13][14] - **Supply**: Primary lead production is high, and secondary lead production has recovered, alleviating the supply shortage [14] - **Demand**: Battery production is stable, and demand is expected to weaken [14] - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate between $17,100 - $17,600 next week. Be cautious due to low - warehouse receipt risks [14] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Prices increased, and LME inventory decreased [17] - **Supply**: Mining processing fees are low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices stimulate inventory exports [17] - **Demand**: Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and downstream acceptance of prices has increased [17] - **Strategy**: High - level oscillation is likely in the short term, and it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026 [17] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: Prices oscillated weakly, and inventory was stable [19] - **Supply - Demand**: Southwest production is reducing to support prices, and supply - demand is balanced in December. In the long term, over - capacity persists [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Prices declined, and inventory is high in the intermediate and battery raw material links [21] - **Supply - Demand**: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term. The de - stocking scale is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons if Ningde resumes production in December [21] - **Outlook**: The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding intentions [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend within the year. Hold existing long - positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - end changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc Industry - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, the downward space for prices is limited, and domestic zinc prices may be stronger than LME zinc prices. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes [4]. Copper Industry - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom price center [6]. Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The market's ability to rebound depends on the actual scale of enterprise production cuts and inventory changes. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after reaching high levels [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. If prices fall to the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips. Hold existing long - positions if available [9]. Polysilicon Industry - Polysilicon futures may continue to fluctuate at high levels, but the probability of a decline to converge with spot prices is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the time being [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term. Pay attention to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11][12]. Nickel Industry - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [13]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term. Pay attention to steel mills' implementation of production cuts and raw material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large enterprises and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 314,000 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; SMM 1 tin premium remains unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Yangtze 1 tin price is 314,500 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; LME 0 - 3 premium remains unchanged at 70 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - Import loss is 15,329.05 yuan/ton, with a 7.76% increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.91 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 350 yuan/ton, up 36.36% from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 53.09% month - on - month [1]. - Refined tin exports in October were 1,480 tons, down 15.33% month - on - month; Indonesian refined tin exports in October were 2,600 tons, down 45.83% month - on - month [1]. - SMM refined tin average operating rate in October was 66.81%, up 53.23% month - on - month; SMM solder enterprise operating rate in November was 73.80%, up 0.96% from the previous value [1]. Inventory Changes - SHEF weekly inventory is 6,865 tons, up 1.96% from the previous value; social inventory is 8,012 tons, up 2.39% from the previous value [1]. Zinc Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remains unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton; the premium is 70 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss is 4,330 yuan/ton, with a 549.10 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.45 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 15 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - Refined zinc production in November was 59.52 tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; refined zinc imports in October were 1.88 tons, down 16.94% month - on - month [4]. - Refined zinc exports in October were 0.85 tons, up 243.79% month - on - month; galvanizing operating rate is 58.20%, up 1.66% week - on - week [4]. Inventory Changes - China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots is 13.60 tons, down 5.75% week - on - week; LME inventory is 5.8 tons, up 4.29% week - on - week [4]. Copper Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 0.78% from the previous value; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 20 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - Electrolytic copper production in November was 110.31 tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; electrolytic copper imports in October were 28.21 tons, down 15.61% month - on - month [6]. Inventory Changes - Domestic social inventory is 16.03 tons, up 0.82% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory is 7.75 tons, down 12.82% week - on - week [6]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,920 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Electrolytic aluminum import loss is 1,856 yuan/ton, with a 103 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.64 [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts AL 2512 - 2601 is - 25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Fundamental Data - Alumina production in November was 743.94 tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic aluminum production in November was 363.66 tons, down 2.82% month - on - month [8]. Inventory Changes - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 59.50 tons, down 0.17% week - on - week; LME inventory is 52.6 tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon is 8,300 yuan/ton, down 1.59% from the previous value; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous value [9]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 8,675 yuan/ton, down 5,696.77% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production is 40.17 tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 23.76 tons, up 0.83% month - on - month [9]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang inventory is 12.38 tons, up 2.82% from the previous value; social inventory is 55.80 tons, up 1.45% week - on - week [9]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remains unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remains unchanged at 50,000 yuan/kg [10]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spread - The main contract price is 54,545 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from the previous value; the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is 2,655 yuan/ton, down 16.51% from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Polysilicon production is 2.58 tons, up 7.50% week - on - week; polysilicon production in the month is 11.46 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month [10]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory is 29.10 tons, up 3.56% from the previous value; silicon wafer inventory is 21.30 tons, up 9.23% from the previous value [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,600 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous value; the scrap - to - new price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,761 yuan/ton, down 2.92% from the previous value [11]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 68.20 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 30.27 tons, up 5.84% month - on - month [11]. Inventory Changes - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory is 5.53 tons, down 0.54% from the previous value; the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan is 35,326 tons, down 0.48% from the previous value [11]. Nickel Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,200 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous value; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 4,950 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous value [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [13]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 33,345 tons, down 9.38% month - on - month; refined nickel imports are 9,741 tons, down 65.66% month - on - month [13]. Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory is 42,508 tons, up 4.23% week - on - week; social inventory is 26,848 tons, up 2.71% week - on - week [13]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous value [14]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 115 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) is 178.70 tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) is 42.35 tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [14]. Inventory Changes - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 49.20 tons, down 2.06% week - on - week; 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 29.82 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,750 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 90,350 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 80 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - Lithium carbonate production in November was 23,500 tons, up 3.35% month - on - month; lithium carbonate demand in November was 133,451 tons, up 5.11% month - on - month [17]. Inventory Changes - Lithium carbonate total inventory in November was 64,560 tons, down 23.36% month - on - month; lithium carbonate downstream inventory in November was 42,030 tons, down 21.13% month - on - month [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Zinc - The fundamentals and macro - environment have limited changes. The supply is generally loose, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the decline in smelting profits. The demand is average, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export window of zinc ingots may boost the domestic zinc price. The Shanghai - London ratio may be repaired, with the main contract referring to 22300 - 23000 [2]. Copper - After the implementation of interest - rate cuts and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply of copper ore is in short supply, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. The main contract refers to 86500 - 88000 [4]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows regional differentiation. The fundamentals are strong, and long positions should be held. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. The electrolytic aluminum market is driven by the macro - environment, but the fundamentals are weak. The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - level benefits and weak fundamentals in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level callback [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is strongly supported, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 20800 - 21400 [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of long - short interweaving. The refined nickel production is at a high level, and the supply of nickel ore is generally stable. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 118000 - 124000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock state. The macro - level drive is weakened, the nickel - ore market is temporarily stable, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, with the main contract referring to 12400 - 12800 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement. The price may fluctuate and adjust in the short term [17]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. If the organic silicon enterprises cut production, the inventory pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range being 8500 - 9500 [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is rising. The supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22630 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 4587 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.36 [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the refined zinc output was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The galvanizing and other开工 rates showed different changes [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.48% to 87210 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 827 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the electrolytic copper output was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The copper rod and other开工 rates increased [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.72% to 296000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 15428.41 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.15% to 21920 yuan/ton, and the alumina price in some regions decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the alumina output was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum output was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.70% to 21650 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined aluminum price difference in some regions increased [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output decreased by 2.42%, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot output increased by 1.06% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.17% to 120650 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 1765 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The domestic refined nickel output increased, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.47% [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the nickel - iron price decreased by 0.22% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel output in China increased by 0.38%, and the social inventory increased by 1.73% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1.26% to 84350 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate price increased by 1.73% [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the lithium carbonate output was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70% [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.09% [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The N - type re - feed material average price remained unchanged at 52150 yuan/ton, and the N - type silicon wafer price was stable [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon output was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%, and the inventory increased by 3.09% [19].