Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - Copper: Maintain a bullish stance on dips, with expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1] - Aluminum: Positive outlook due to overseas rate - cut expectations, with supply - demand expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1] - Zinc: Suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7] - Nickel: Given the short - term weak fundamentals, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [8][9] - Stainless Steel: With a weak fundamental outlook, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [12] - Lead: Expect prices to oscillate between $17,100 - $17,600 next week, and be cautious due to low - warehouse receipt risks [14] - Tin: High - level oscillation is likely in the short term, and it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026 [17] - Industrial Silicon: Prices are expected to oscillate in December and move in a cyclical bottom - oscillation pattern in the long term [19] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term supply - demand is strong. The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding intentions [21] Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Spread**: LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly, and copper prices exceeded $11,000. The structural supply - demand gap persists, and inventory is unevenly distributed globally [1] - **Domestic Situation**: High prices have curbed actual consumption, with a slight inventory build - up expected until the Spring Festival. The monthly spread and import profit window are restricted [1] - **Outlook**: Pay attention to the FOMC meeting in December. Maintain a bullish stance on dips, with expected price range of $10,800 - $12,000 [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: Prices increased, and the spot basis declined. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, while aluminum products continued to reduce inventory [1] - **Supply - Demand**: Overseas rate - cut expectations are positive. Supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: Zinc prices rose, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium declined. The spot premium in the domestic market increased [5][6][7] - **Supply**: Domestic and imported TC are declining rapidly. Some smelters are under maintenance in December, with an expected output reduction of 15,000 - 18,000 tons [7] - **Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while US zinc imports have increased recently. The export window is opening [7] - **Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage and 01 - 03 positive arbitrage opportunities [7] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: Prices were relatively stable, and both domestic and overseas inventories increased [8] - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is slightly reduced, demand is weak, and the Jinchuan premium is strong [8] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to short - term weak fundamentals [8][9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: Prices were mostly stable, and inventory remained at a high level [12] - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and costs are relatively stable [12] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies due to weak fundamentals [12] Lead - **Price and Spread**: Prices rebounded. The refined - scrap spread returned to - 50 [13][14] - **Supply**: Primary lead production is high, and secondary lead production has recovered, alleviating the supply shortage [14] - **Demand**: Battery production is stable, and demand is expected to weaken [14] - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate between $17,100 - $17,600 next week. Be cautious due to low - warehouse receipt risks [14] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: Prices increased, and LME inventory decreased [17] - **Supply**: Mining processing fees are low, and overseas production recovery is slow. However, high prices stimulate inventory exports [17] - **Demand**: Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and downstream acceptance of prices has increased [17] - **Strategy**: High - level oscillation is likely in the short term, and it can be a long - position allocation in the first half of 2026 [17] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: Prices oscillated weakly, and inventory was stable [19] - **Supply - Demand**: Southwest production is reducing to support prices, and supply - demand is balanced in December. In the long term, over - capacity persists [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: Prices declined, and inventory is high in the intermediate and battery raw material links [21] - **Supply - Demand**: Supply and demand are both strong in the short term. The de - stocking scale is expected to be 5,000 - 6,000 tons if Ningde resumes production in December [21] - **Outlook**: The upside potential depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding intentions [21]

| 锡产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年12月9日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 314000 | 314800 | -800 | -0.25% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 314500 | 315300 | -800 | -0.25% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | 70.00 | 70.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | मोरिस | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -15329.05 | -16618.50 | 1289.45 | 7.76% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Zinc - The fundamentals and macro - environment have limited changes. The supply is generally loose, and the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the decline in smelting profits. The demand is average, and the domestic zinc ingot remains at a discount. The LME zinc has upward pressure, while the export window of zinc ingots may boost the domestic zinc price. The Shanghai - London ratio may be repaired, with the main contract referring to 22300 - 23000 [2]. Copper - After the implementation of interest - rate cuts and tariffs, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The supply of copper ore is in short supply, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. The main contract refers to 86500 - 88000 [4]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows regional differentiation. The fundamentals are strong, and long positions should be held. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern. The electrolytic aluminum market is driven by the macro - environment, but the fundamentals are weak. The aluminum price will fluctuate between macro - level benefits and weak fundamentals in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level callback [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is strongly supported, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 20800 - 21400 [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of long - short interweaving. The refined nickel production is at a high level, and the supply of nickel ore is generally stable. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to maintain a weak shock pattern, with the main contract referring to 118000 - 124000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is in a weak shock state. The macro - level drive is weakened, the nickel - ore market is temporarily stable, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is insufficient. The price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile, with the main contract referring to 12400 - 12800 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The short - term supply and demand are expected to increase simultaneously, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand improvement. The price may fluctuate and adjust in the short term [17]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is falling. If the organic silicon enterprises cut production, the inventory pressure will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range being 8500 - 9500 [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price is stable, and the futures price is rising. The supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Attention should be paid to the support of the spot price and the digestion of warehouse receipts [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22630 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 4587 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.36 [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the refined zinc output was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. The galvanizing and other开工 rates showed different changes [2]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.48% to 87210 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 827 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the electrolytic copper output was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The copper rod and other开工 rates increased [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.72% to 296000 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 15428.41 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13%, and the SMM refined tin output in October increased by 53.09% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.15% to 21920 yuan/ton, and the alumina price in some regions decreased slightly [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the alumina output was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%, and the electrolytic aluminum output was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [9]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.70% to 21650 yuan/ton, and the scrap - to - refined aluminum price difference in some regions increased [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot output decreased by 2.42%, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot output increased by 1.06% [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.17% to 120650 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 1765 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The domestic refined nickel output increased, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.47% [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.39% to 12750 yuan/ton, and the nickel - iron price decreased by 0.22% [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel output in China increased by 0.38%, and the social inventory increased by 1.73% [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1.26% to 84350 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate price increased by 1.73% [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the lithium carbonate output was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70% [17]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon price remained unchanged at 9500 yuan/ton, and the basis increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: The national industrial silicon output was 45.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%, and the social inventory decreased by 1.09% [18]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The N - type re - feed material average price remained unchanged at 52150 yuan/ton, and the N - type silicon wafer price was stable [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: The polysilicon output was 13.40 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08%, and the inventory increased by 3.09% [19].