证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券分析师 田源 SAC：S1350524030001 tianyuan@huayuanstock.com 张明磊 SAC：S1350525010001 zhangminglei@huayuanstock.com 田庆争 SAC：S1350524050001 tianqingzheng@huayuanstock.com 陈婉妤 SAC：S1350524110006 chenwanyu@huayuanstock.com 陈轩 SAC：S1350525120001 chenxuan01@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 节后库存累积，铜铝价格短期或迎来震荡 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——有色金属 大宗金属周报（2026/2/23-2026/2/27） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 铜 ： 节 后 大 幅 累 库 ， 铜 价 短 期 或 迎 来 震 荡 。 本 周 伦 铜 / 沪 铜 / 美 铜 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 +5.16%/+3.53%/+3.25%。供给端，智利 1 月 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400), which has seen a rise of over 2% and is currently up 1.88%, indicating a potential three-day consecutive increase in trading volume [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has experienced continuous net inflows for 12 days, supported by a recent action plan from Shanghai to enhance the linkage between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming to expand the market's international influence [2] - The global macroeconomic outlook is improving, with the IMF raising the 2026 global growth forecast to 3.3%, which is expected to support the prices of precious metals and boost sentiment for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2] Group 2 - The tungsten market is experiencing a strong upward trend in both price and volume, with tungsten powder prices reaching historical highs due to tight supply and strong demand driven by the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle sectors [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index, which includes 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector in the market [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index include major companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth, indicating a concentration of market influence among leading firms [3]

1月20日，自然资源部和住房城乡建设部发布关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通知。其中提 到，利用存量土地、房产资源发展国家支持产业、行业的，可享受一定年期内不改变用地主体和规划条 件的过渡期政策，过渡期原则上不超过5年。对老旧住房自主更新项目，可采用直接按户首次登记等方 式提供不动产登记服务。 上海发布《加强期现联动提升有色金属大宗商品能级行动方案》，加强市场之间的联动发展，合力提高 上海有色金属大宗商品的资源配置能力和全球定价影响力，助力上海"五个中心"建设。据上海市委金融 办介绍，《行动方案》主要包括三部分内容18项措施。 海外要闻： 宏观要闻： 1月20日，财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，2026年，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财 政政策，概括起来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和 支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 财政部发布通知，将个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施期限延长至2026年底，政策到期后，将根据实施效 果视情研究延长政策期限等。此外，在20日上午举行的国新办新闻发布会上，国家发改委有关负责 ...

张大伟 制图 ◎记者 陈佳怡 费天元 1月20日，上海市委金融办联合上海期货交易所、上海清算所、上海市商务委员会共同召开新闻发布 会，介绍《加强期现联动 提升有色金属大宗商品能级行动方案》（下称《行动方案》）相关情况。此 前，上海市委金融委员会办公室、中国人民银行上海总部、国家金融监督管理总局上海监管局、中国证 券监督管理委员会上海监管局、上海市商务委员会联合发布了《行动方案》。 作为改革开放的前沿城市，上海依托"五个中心"建设的联动优势，背靠长三角发达的制造业基础，充分 发挥在沪金融要素市场和现货交易平台聚集作用，在有色金属领域已形成期货、现货、场外衍生品市场 联动发展的格局。 在期货市场方面，上海期货交易所相关负责人介绍，上海期货交易所已上市铜、铝、锌、铅等11个有色 期货品种和10个有色期权品种，部分期货品种已在全球或区域具备了定价能力，如以"上海铜"为代表的 有色金属期货板块，已成为我国运行最成熟、产业参与度最高的商品期货序列之一，并跻身全球三大有 色金属定价中心行列。上海期货交易所坚持统筹发展与安全，持续完善风险动态研判与应对处置机制， 不断加强交易行为监管，深化期现联动风险防控。 在场外市场方面， ...

中国基金报记者 李智 1 月 20 日，中共上海市委金融委员会办公室、中国人民银行上海总部、国家金融监督管理总 局上海监管局、中国证券监督管理委员会上海监管局、上海市商务委员会联合发布《加强期 现联动 提升有色金属大宗商品能级行动方案》（以下简称《行动方案》），提升上海市有色 金属大宗商品能级和全球定价影响力。 【导读】上海发布 18 项措施，提升有色金属大宗商品能级和全球定价影响力 以下为全文： 加强期现联动提升有色金属大宗商品能级行动方案 为进一步加强期现联动，提升我市有色金属大宗商品能级，制定本行动方案。 一、推进有色金属市场互通，促进期 — 现 — 衍联动发展 《行动方案》主要包括三部分内容 18 项措施： 一是推进有色金属市场互通，促进期 — 现 — 衍联动发展。支持上海清算所、上海期货交易 所探索在清算、风险管理方面开展沟通交流。支持本市有色金属现货交易场所通过大宗商品 清算通开展资金清结算，提高现货市场结算效率和安全性。推动汽车生产、建筑、家电制造 等各类型有色金属应用类企业参与期货和场外衍生品市场，更好管理价格风险。《行动方 案》聚焦市场参与主体，从基础设施到实体企业，加强期 — 现 — 衍联 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Demand expectations for aluminum have been raised, leading to a strong breakthrough in aluminum prices [3] - Copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations after breaking historical highs, with significant inventory accumulation in domestic markets [5] - The lithium sector is entering an upward price cycle driven by strong demand, despite being in the off-season [79] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [91] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - China's manufacturing PMI for December exceeded expectations at 50.1, compared to the forecast of 49.2 [8] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 27 were lower than expected at 199,000 [8] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 28.46, while the PB_LF is 3.51, indicating a premium over the broader market [20] Copper - London copper prices increased by 2.39%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.49% [25] - Domestic copper inventory saw a significant increase of 30.11%, while London copper inventory decreased by 7.45% [25] Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 1.79%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.59% [37] - The profit margin for aluminum enterprises increased by 7.18% to 6,862 CNY/ton [37] Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices rose by 5.90% to 118,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 3.89% to 1,548 USD/ton [79] - The lithium sector is expected to see a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a price increase [79] Cobalt - MB cobalt prices rose by 1.53% to 24.88 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices increased by 10.11% to 490,000 CNY/ton [91] - Domestic smelting margins for cobalt increased by 74.85% to 96,700 CNY/ton [91]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum shortage logic is expected to gradually materialize, leading to an upward cycle in aluminum prices [2] - Copper prices are currently experiencing fluctuations due to domestic inventory accumulation, with a potential shift towards a supply shortage in the medium to long term [4][21] - The lithium sector is witnessing unexpected demand, with lithium salt entering a destocking cycle, indicating a potential rebound in lithium prices [4][73] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply situation [4][86] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI was below expectations at 48.7, while the ADP employment figure exceeded expectations with an increase of 42,000 jobs [8] 2. Market Performance - The overall performance of the non-ferrous sector showed a slight decline, with the Shenyin Wanguo non-ferrous index down 0.04%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.12 percentage points [10][11] - The aluminum and lithium sectors showed better performance, while the magnetic materials and rare earth sectors lagged [10] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous sector is 25.53, with a change of 0.32, while the PB is 3.16, with a change of 0.03 [19][22] 4. Industrial Metals Copper - London copper prices fell by 1.57%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 1.23% [21][22] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 0.95%, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance in the future [21] Aluminum - London aluminum prices decreased by 1.01%, while Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.74% [35] - The profit margin for electrolytic aluminum rose to 5,741 yuan/ton, up 3.66% [35] Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 0.19% to 80,400 yuan/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 0.26% to 75,580 yuan/ton [73] Cobalt - MB cobalt prices rose by 0.43% to $23.53 per pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 1.54% to 384,000 yuan/ton [86]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Views - The copper market is expected to transition from a tight balance to a shortage due to frequent supply disruptions, with prices likely entering an upward cycle. Recent price changes for copper include +2.08% for LME copper, +3.20% for SHFE copper, and +2.89% for COMEX copper. The Grasberg mine, the world's second-largest copper mine, has faced production halts, with Freeport estimating a recovery to pre-accident production levels by 2027, leading to a projected 35% decrease in copper production in 2026 compared to previous expectations. Domestic copper inventories are decreasing, with LME, COMEX, and SHFE inventories at 144,000 tons, 322,000 short tons, and 99,000 tons respectively, showing changes of -2.2%, +1.7%, and -6.7% [6][4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Domestic and international macroeconomic indicators show that initial jobless claims in the U.S. were lower than expected, with 218,000 claims reported against an expectation of 235,000. The core PCE price index for August matched expectations at 2.9% [10]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.52%, ranking second among Shenwan sectors. The copper, copper products, and cobalt sectors showed the most significant gains, while other small metals and aluminum sectors lagged behind [12]. 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE ratio for the Shenwan non-ferrous metals sector is 24.83, with a weekly change of 0.63. The PB ratio is 2.97, with a weekly change of 0.08. The non-ferrous sector's PE ratio is 112% of the overall A-share market, while the PB ratio is 165% [21][24]. 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased, with LME copper up 2.08% and SHFE copper up 3.20%. Copper inventories decreased by 2.20% for LME and 6.65% for SHFE. The smelting fee is reported at -40.3 USD/ton, with copper smelting margins at -2701 CNY/ton [26][39]. 5. Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell by 1.36%, while SHFE aluminum prices decreased by 0.22%. The inventory situation shows a 0.74% increase in LME aluminum stocks and a 2.43% decrease in SHFE stocks. The price of alumina dropped by 2.15% [39]. 6. Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 0.14% to 73,600 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices fell by 0.23% to 857 USD/ton. The lithium supply chain is entering a destocking phase due to increased demand [79]. 7. Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with MB cobalt up 3.22% to 16.83 USD/pound and domestic cobalt prices rising by 14.80% to 318,000 CNY/ton. The Democratic Republic of Congo is set to implement a cobalt export quota system, which may lead to a tightening of supply and further price increases [92].