Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices broke through and moved upward this week. With supply disruptions and strong underlying support, attention should be paid to the changes in the monthly and internal - external structures from September to October and potential squeeze risks [1]. - Aluminum supply increased slightly. With expected inventory depletion in September and a low - inventory pattern, attention should be paid to the far - month monthly and internal - external reverse spreads [1]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. In the short term, it is expected to rebound with the support of interest - rate cut expectations and domestic commodity sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see, and be in a short - position configuration in the medium and long term. Internal - external positive spreads can be held, and monthly positive spreads can be noted [2][3]. - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is average. With the cooling of macro - level anti - involution sentiment and the ongoing situation in Indonesia, continuous attention is needed [3][4]. - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the Indonesian demonstration incident [7]. - Lead prices oscillated this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a low - level oscillation next week and may test the 17,000 mark [9]. - Tin prices oscillated upward this week. With short - term supply - demand weakness, attention should be paid to the potential supply - demand mismatch from September to October and the impact of interest - rate cut expectations [12]. - Industrial silicon's short - term supply - demand balance depends on Hesheng's resumption progress. In the medium and long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle [15]. - Lithium carbonate prices declined this week. With the approaching of the downstream peak season, the monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, and the price elasticity is large when supply - side disturbance speculation materializes [17][18]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, with a change of - 15; the premium and discount changed by 169; the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1212 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Market orders showed resilience, and the distinction between peak and off - peak seasons in copper rod operating rates was not obvious. The spread between refined and scrap copper was tight, and the operating rates of recycled copper rods in some areas declined, raising concerns about anode copper production in September and October. The planned production of electrolytic copper in September decreased unexpectedly [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingots decreased by 110, 110, and 100 respectively; the domestic alumina price decreased by 8 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increased slightly, with imports from January to July providing an increment. August was a seasonal off - peak season for demand, with a slight improvement in the second half of the month. Inventory was expected to deplete in September [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot premium and discount changed by - 10; the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 90. Domestic social inventory oscillated upward, and LME inventory decreased by 625 [2]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, domestic TC was difficult to rise, while imported TC increased. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas demand was average with potential supply shortages [2][3]. Nickel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot price of Shanghai nickel increased by 2150; the spot import return increased by 542.75 [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, demand was weak overall, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while overseas inventory remained stable [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the prices of 304 cold - rolled, 304 hot - rolled, 201 cold - rolled, and 430 cold - rolled remained unchanged [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand was mainly for rigid needs, nickel - iron prices remained stable, and chromium - iron prices increased slightly. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan remained stable [7]. Lead - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot premium and discount increased by 10; LME inventory decreased by 1500 [9]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and the production of recycled lead was at a low level. On the demand side, battery finished - product inventory was high, and the market's peak season was not prosperous [9]. Tin - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the spot import return decreased by 268.20; LME inventory increased by 145 [12]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, domestic smelters cut production, and overseas production faced constraints. On the demand side, solder demand had limited elasticity, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the 421 Yunnan, 421 Sichuan, 553 East China, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 105; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 53 [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Xinjiang's leading enterprises' resumption of production was stable with an expected acceleration. The short - term supply - demand balance depends on Hesheng's resumption progress, and in the medium and long term, there is over - capacity [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market Data**: From August 26 to September 1, the SMM electric carbon and industrial carbon prices decreased by 1300; the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1310 [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The market was affected by supply - side disturbances and downstream seasonal peak seasons. The monthly balance has turned to continuous inventory depletion, and price elasticity is large [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated higher, and domestic copper trended slightly stronger. The Fed Chair's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium cleared the way for a September rate cut, but market concerns about high - inflation data may pose obstacles. Seasonal demand is expected to pick up as the off - season ends. There are expectations of restocking by domestic processing enterprises and rapid destocking of social inventories, which could drive LME copper into a destocking phase and support price stabilization. However, the potential upside in September may be limited compared to the first half of the year [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, while Shanghai aluminum trended slightly stronger. Alumina's复产 rhythm is increasing, and the expectation of oversupply is pressuring prices. Cost support is strengthening due to reduced bauxite shipments during the rainy season and potential mining restrictions during the September 3 parade. Aluminum prices are supported by a decline in domestic aluminum ingot inflows and increased downstream restocking. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of aluminum ingot inventories and US rate - cut trends [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, Shanghai nickel rose 0.05%. Domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The overall fundamentals changed little, with no prominent contradictions in the industrial chain, and prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Macro factors include the Fed's dovish stance and market inflation concerns. Inventory changes show a decrease in LME copper inventory, an increase in Comex copper inventory, and a decrease in SHFE copper warehouse receipts. Seasonal demand is expected to improve, and there are restocking expectations in the domestic market, which may support price stabilization [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina prices are under pressure due to increased复产 and inventory accumulation, but cost support limits deep declines. Aluminum prices are supported by reduced inflows and increased downstream restocking, and the formation of a cyclical inflection point needs further confirmation [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices rose slightly, with a decrease in domestic SHFE warehouse receipts. The fundamentals are stable, and prices are likely to move in a range [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 575 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory (including bonded areas) increased by 0.8 million tons. The active - contract import profit and loss improved by 550 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 100 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased by 1154 tons on a weekly basis [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased. The social inventory of alumina decreased by 2.2 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 750 yuan/ton. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 260 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力 settlement price increased by 0.5%. The social inventory increased by 0.74 million tons on a weekly basis [5]. - **Tin**: The主力 settlement price increased by 1.0%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 301 tons on a weekly basis [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premiums**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spreads**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventories**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventories**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventories**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, and stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profits**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fees, aluminum smelting profits, nickel - iron smelting costs, zinc smelting profits, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margins from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures, with extensive experience in commodity research and many awards. Wang Heng, a researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi, a researcher focusing on lithium and nickel, both provide in - depth reports and policy interpretations for clients [49][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose and then fell, down 0.04% to $9,670.5/ton; SHFE copper fell 0.03% to CNY 78,360/ton. The domestic spot import remained in a loss, but the loss narrowed. With weak overseas economic data and concerns about overseas demand, copper prices were generally weak. However, the expectation of the peak season in September would limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The relaxation of Guinea's aluminum ore export policy and the return of mining rights increased supply expectations. With the new production of alumina in Hebei and Guangxi and the impact of Indonesian imports, the pressure of alumina surplus increased. The production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan continued to rise, and inventory accumulation might continue, putting downward pressure on aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.1% to $15,115/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.14% to CNY 121,180/ton. In the short term, nickel and stainless - steel prices were affected by market sentiment and weakened. Fundamentally, there were support from ferronickel and intermediate product prices below and demand suppression above, showing a volatile trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The market focused on tariff negotiations between the US and other economies. There were concerns about US debt. Domestically, policies and anti - involution expectations were important trading considerations. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, Comex copper increased by 174 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons. During the off - season, terminal orders were insufficient, and processing plants' procurement was just for刚需 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina futures AO2509 closed at CNY 3,170/ton, down 2.28%, with an increase in positions.沪铝 AL2509 closed at CNY 20,670/ton, down 0.46%, with a decrease in positions. The spot price of alumina fell, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The price of ferronickel increased, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreased for four consecutive weeks, but the de - stocking speed slowed down. The domestic inventory of primary nickel decreased slightly, and the output in August was expected to increase by 2% to 33,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 7, 2025, the price of flat - copper rose by CNY 155 to CNY 78,470/ton, and the premium rose by CNY 15. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by CNY 100 to CNY 73,100/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 125 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 201 tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River increased by CNY 10 to CNY 16,850/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 800 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes increased. The spot premium decreased by CNY 10 to - CNY 50/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 1,575 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,737 tons. The alumina inventory increased by 39,000 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by CNY 50 to CNY 123,250/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 102 tons. The weekly nickel inventory increased by 299 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.9% to CNY 22,530/ton. The weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,275 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.41 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose by 0.3% to CNY 267,530/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 15 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 254 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the LME from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin on the SHFE from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts display the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, ferronickel smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [48]. - **Wang Heng**: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [48]. - **Zhu Xi**: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [49].