Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The overall market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a slight inventory build - up, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1] - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory build - up is expected in August [2] - Zinc prices fluctuate widely this week. In the short term, it shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and in the long - term, a short - position configuration is recommended. The internal - external positive spread can be held, and attention can be paid to the positive spread opportunity between months [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is average, and attention can be continued to be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [9] - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, it follows the anti - involution expectation, and attention should be paid to the later policy direction [12] - Lead prices fluctuate this week. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a low - level fluctuation next week [15] - Tin prices fluctuate widely. In the short term, supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices lightly; in the long - term, hold at low prices close to the cost line [17] - For industrial silicon, in the short term, there is a slight inventory reduction in August, and in the long - term, it will fluctuate at the cycle bottom [18] - Lithium carbonate prices have a large short - term upward elasticity and strong downward support under the current macro - sentiment [19] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Macro sentiment shows a recovery in risk preference. The downstream order support around 7.8 is verified this week. The spot market trading is okay, and attention should be paid to the impact of the decline in recycled rod production on refined copper consumption [1] Aluminum - Supply increases slightly, demand is in the off - season in August with a possible improvement later. Aluminum exports improve, but photovoltaic and overseas demand decline. An inventory build - up is expected in August [2] Zinc - Supply: Domestic TC has difficulty rising, and imported TC increases. The smelting increment is further realized in August. Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience, and overseas European demand is average. There may be a short - term supply shortage. Stocks: Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas L inventory decreases rapidly [5] Nickel - Supply: Pure nickel production remains at a high level. Demand: It is weak overall, and the premium is stable recently. Inventory: Domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remain unchanged [9] Stainless Steel - Supply: Some steel mills cut production passively. Demand: It is mainly for rigid needs, and some restocking increases due to the macro - atmosphere. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decrease slightly, and exchange warehouse receipts remain unchanged [12] Lead - Supply: Scrap volume is weak year - on - year, and the recycled lead production is at a low level due to high costs. Demand: Battery finished - product inventory is high, and the market fails to reach the peak - season level. Inventory: Exchange inventory reaches a historical high of 70,000 tons [15] Tin - Supply: Domestic smelting production may decline slightly in July - August. Overseas, there are signals of复产, but the specific quantity needs to be observed. Demand: Solder demand has limited elasticity, and terminal electronics and photovoltaic growth are expected to decline. Inventory: Domestic inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory is at a low level with a risk of short - squeeze [17] Industrial Silicon - Production: Xinjiang's leading enterprises' production recovery is less than expected, while Sichuan and Yunnan's production increases slightly. Supply - demand: In August, there is a slight inventory reduction, and future supply - demand depends on the production recovery of Hesheng and Southwest enterprises [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market: Affected by factors such as inventory reduction data, the market is strong. Supply - demand: Upstream enterprises are willing to sell, downstream procurement is for rigid needs with stronger restocking willingness, and trader transactions are more active [19]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 8 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落，下跌 0.04%至 9670.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜下跌 0.03%至 78360 元 /吨；国内现货进口维系亏损，但亏损幅度收窄。宏观方面，市场关注点聚焦在美国与 | | | 其他经济体关税方面的谈判，印度强硬回应美单方面加征关税。另外，30 年期美债拍 卖惨，凸显债务隐忧。国内方面，政策及反内卷预期依然是市场交易的重要考量。库存 | | 铜 | 方面，LME 库存下降 125 吨至 156000 吨；Comex 铜增加 174 吨至 238860 吨；SHFE 铜 | | | 仓单下降 201 吨至 20145 吨；BC 铜仓单维系 1553 吨。需求方面，淡季期间，终端订 | | | 单继续表现不足，加工端采购节奏维系刚需。近期海外公布的经济数据疲软，市场担忧 | | | 海外需求，铜价整体表现偏弱。另外，美精炼铜 0 关税下市场对美铜后市有观望情绪， | | | 关注是否存在价格倒挂库存重新外迁风险。综合来看，铜价可能表现偏弱，但金九旺季 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper weakened with a 1.2% decline to $9,406/ton, and SHFE copper dropped 0.74% to CNY 77,450/ton. The Fed paused rate - cuts, boosting the dollar and suppressing non - ferrous metals. However, with an improving macro - outlook and strong copper demand since April leading to rapid inventory drawdown, there is no strong reason to be bearish on copper. Copper prices are expected to reach CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton. Attention should be paid to downstream acceptance at high prices and inventory performance in late May [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina and沪铝 (SHFE aluminum) both trended weakly. Alumina may rebound slightly after the holiday driven by electrolytic aluminum, but will continue to be in an oversupply situation. Aluminum ingot de - stocking is slowing, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to short at high prices and consider bottom - fishing in stages [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.38% to $15,630/ton, and SHFE nickel dropped 0.35% to CNY 123,640/ton. Stainless steel prices will oscillate with cost support at the bottom and demand constraints at the top. Short - term nickel ore is relatively strong, but if primary nickel inventory continues to accumulate, it will put pressure on nickel prices [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Copper**: LME copper prices fell, and SHFE copper also declined. The Fed's pause in rate - cuts affected the market, but strong demand and inventory drawdown supported prices. The expected price range is CNY 78,000 - 80,000/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and SHFE aluminum prices were weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and aluminum ingot demand is waning [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices declined. Stainless steel prices will oscillate, and primary nickel inventory accumulation may pressure nickel prices [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Market prices showed some changes, with inventory adjustments in different exchanges. For example, LME inventory decreased by 1,650 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts dropped by 3,381 tons [1][3]. - **Lead**: Most prices remained stable, with minor changes in some indicators like lead ingot discounts [3]. - **Aluminum**: Prices of aluminum products changed, and inventory also adjusted. Alumina inventory increased by 43,000 tons on a weekly basis [3][4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel - related prices and inventory had some fluctuations, such as a decrease in SHFE nickel warehouse receipts by 416 tons [2][4]. - **Zinc**: Prices declined slightly, and inventory increased in some areas. For example, social inventory increased by 0.34 million tons on a weekly basis [5]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.6%, and inventory decreased in some cases [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [7][8][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [12][16][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [19][21][23]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin [24][26][29]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series [30][32][35]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin [37][39][42]. Non - Ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A senior researcher in non - ferrous metals and precious metals at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [44]. - Wang Heng: A non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [44]. - Zhu Xi: A non - ferrous metals researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly researching lithium and nickel [45].