证券研究报告 行业研究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 资源国竞相管制矿产出口 助有色行业长期景气 核[心T观ab点le：_Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 风险提示：政策变化、管制政策施行力度、海外产能变化等。 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 7 页 2 月 25 日下午 Reuters 率先报道，津巴布韦矿业部长 Polite Kambamura 在 Harare 表示，立即暂停所有原材料及锂精矿出口，包括正在运输途中的货物， 该禁令"即刻生效，直至另行通知"。随后 Bloomberg 也同步进行了报道。 26 日国内多家在津巴布韦有锂矿开采业务的上市公司也证实了该政策。该国 原则上计划 2027 年禁止精矿出口，目前在当地拥有锂盐或硫酸锂生产产能的 企业仍可申请锂精矿出口许可证，且硫酸锂目前允许出口。 分析师：郭强 2025 年 2 月，刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管局宣布暂停钴出口四个月，到期 后该国政府两次延期禁令，并宣布从 10 月 16 日起实施出口配额制。按照公 告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the aluminum industry, particularly focusing on the acquisition of Hongtuo Industrial by Hongchuang Holdings for 63.518 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance competitiveness and optimize the industry structure [1][2]. Group 1: M&A Details - Hongchuang Holdings plans to acquire 100% equity of Hongtuo Industrial for 63.518 billion yuan, marking the largest M&A deal among private enterprises in A-shares since the "Six Merger Rules" were introduced [2]. - The transaction will involve issuing 11.895 billion shares at a price of 5.34 yuan per share, significantly increasing Hongchuang's total assets and revenue, allowing it to enter the ranks of global large-scale aluminum producers [2][3]. - The acquisition is expected to reverse Hongchuang's continuous losses and improve its governance structure, as Hongtuo Industrial is a core asset of China Hongqiao, a leading integrated aluminum producer [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Prior to the acquisition, Hongchuang Holdings had total assets of only 3.1 billion yuan and a market capitalization of approximately 26.6 billion yuan, while Hongtuo Industrial reported revenues of 128.953 billion yuan and net profits of 6.747 billion yuan in 2023 [3][4]. - Post-acquisition, Hongchuang's total assets and revenue are projected to exceed 100 billion yuan, significantly enhancing its financial standing [2][3]. Group 3: Market Impact - Following the announcement of the acquisition, Hongchuang's stock price surged nearly fourfold, making it the best-performing stock in the aluminum sector [5][7]. - The aluminum industry is currently experiencing a bullish cycle, with aluminum prices rising significantly, which is expected to benefit companies like Hongchuang and China Hongqiao [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that aluminum prices will continue to rise due to supply constraints, with estimates suggesting prices could reach 24,000 to 25,000 yuan per ton in the near future [13][14]. - The favorable cost structure for Hongchuang, with a projected aluminum production cost of only 13,200 yuan per ton, positions it well for profit expansion as upstream alumina prices decline [14][16]. - The merger is anticipated to create a comprehensive aluminum industry group, enhancing Hongchuang's capabilities in green production and aligning with industry trends towards low-carbon development [10].

Group 1 - The capital markets in Hong Kong and A-shares experienced significant growth in 2025, with the non-ferrous metals sector, including precious metals like gold and silver, leading the way with an annual increase of 94.73% [1] - Silver and gold futures saw price increases of over 130% and 40% respectively, with multiple instances of extreme price surges, which also positively impacted other industrial metals [4][5] - The copper sector in the Hong Kong market surged over 261%, significantly outperforming other sectors, while gold and precious metals also saw increases exceeding 170% [4][5] Group 2 - Major companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao, reported substantial stock price increases, with Zijin Mining's stock rising over 163% and China Hongqiao's stock increasing by 203.7% [9][11] - Zijin Mining achieved a revenue of 254.2 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a 10.33% year-on-year increase, while net profit rose by 55.45% [17][19] - China Hongqiao's revenue for the first half of the year reached 81.04 billion RMB, a 10.12% increase, with net profit growing by 35.02% [24][26] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2026 due to favorable monetary conditions and a tight supply-demand balance [4][28] - Global economic factors, such as the restructuring of global order and the weakening of the US dollar, are driving precious metal prices higher [27] - Analysts from major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, express optimism about the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting structural supply-demand gaps in metals like copper and aluminum [28][29]