Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the regional premium and discount system for aluminum oxide futures, highlighting that delivery prices vary by location due to differences in transportation costs, supply and demand conditions, and logistics [1] Group 1: Regional Premium and Discount System - The aluminum oxide futures market implements a "regional premium and discount" system, with standards varying by location [1] - Delivery locations include major production and sales areas such as Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Xinjiang, where the exchange sets specific premiums to balance regional price differences [1] Group 2: Market Adjustments - An example is provided where the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced a reduction in the premium for Xinjiang delivery warehouses from 380 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, while maintaining the same levels for other delivery locations [1] - This adjustment reflects the dynamic nature of premiums based on market changes and regional characteristics [1] Group 3: Investor Considerations - The existence of premiums means that even with the same futures contract price, actual costs for delivery can differ by location, necessitating investors to consider these premiums when evaluating warehouse values [1] - The premium system is not a uniform standard but is tailored to reflect and adjust for regional market characteristics, demonstrating the futures market's role in addressing spot market price disparities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) has adjusted the premium and discount rates for different grades of jujube futures to better align with the actual conditions of the spot market, aiming to enhance the futures market's service to the real economy [1][2][4] Group 1: Adjustment of Premium and Discount Rates - The premium for Grade A jujubes (≤180 pieces per kilogram) has been reduced from 1200 CNY/ton to 1000 CNY/ton [1] - The discount for Grade B jujubes (230< pieces per kilogram ≤280) has been adjusted from 1800 CNY/ton to 1300 CNY/ton [1] - The discount for Grade C jujubes (280< pieces per kilogram ≤340, total sugar content ≥70%) has been decreased from 3000 CNY/ton to 2300 CNY/ton [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Price Structure - The consumption structure of jujubes has changed, with increasing demand for Grade B and C jujubes, leading to a rise in risk management needs among industry players [2][3] - The average price difference between Grade A and Grade B jujubes for 2023, 2024, and 2025 is reported as 1300 CNY/ton, 830 CNY/ton, and 1080 CNY/ton respectively [2] - The average price difference between Grade A and Grade C jujubes for the same years is 2500 CNY/ton, 1760 CNY/ton, and 2200 CNY/ton respectively [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Regulation - The current market trend shows a preference for lower-grade jujubes due to their affordability and versatility, while higher-grade jujubes are primarily used for gift packaging [3] - The adjustment of premium and discount rates is intended to better reflect the actual market conditions and facilitate industry clients' participation in hedging [3][4] - The narrowing of the discount rates for Grade B and C jujubes is expected to help stabilize the price fluctuations in the jujube market [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. Multiple factors are at play, with low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, while downstream demand shows a mixed picture. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and household appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Concentrate processing fees are rising, and this year's concentrate supply has improved significantly. Domestic demand is also a mix of positive and negative factors, and the same external factors need to be monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Current concentrate processing fees are generally at a low level, challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power and automobile industries growing, household appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 78,950 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of 170 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,733 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 96.75 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 155,800 tons, with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, household appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. This year's concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover. Zinc prices may have wide - range short - term fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 65 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,777 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 8.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 76,325 tons, with a daily change of - 1,125 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,600 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 20 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,589 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 0.05 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 479,550 tons, with a daily change of - 125 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,340 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 1,270 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,151 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 194.65 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 211,662 tons, with a daily change of 522 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,775 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 155 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,971 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 44.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 261,100 tons, with a daily change of - 575 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,020 yuan/ton, with a domestic basis of - 420 yuan/ton. The previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,702 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 89.00 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 1,655 tons, with a daily change of - 175 tons [2].