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黑色金属日报-20251208
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-12-08 13:11
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, same as iron ore [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★☆, indicating a clear bearish trend and the market is developing [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall steel market is under pressure. With the decline of hot metal production, the furnace materials are under pressure in the negative feedback pattern. The steel market is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the subsequent policy changes need to be monitored [2] - The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a downward pressure on the overall trend [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the seasonal decline of hot metal. The demand for raw materials has some resilience, but the steel mills have a strong willingness to reduce prices. The prices are likely to be weak and oscillating [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have complex supply - demand situations. The silicon manganese inventory is slowly accumulating, and the silicon iron supply is decreasing with a small decline in inventory. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: The futures market continued to fall. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased, production dropped significantly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly with pressure to be relieved [2] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The hot metal production continued to decline, the supply pressure was gradually relieved, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient, and the steel mills' profits were still poor. The real estate investment continued to decline sharply, the infrastructure growth rate continued to fall, the manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and the domestic demand was generally weak. The steel exports remained at a high level in November [2] - **Price Trend**: The steel prices were mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the subsequent policy changes needed to be monitored [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased compared with the previous period, much stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and non - mainstream countries increased significantly, and the shipment from Brazil decreased from the high level but was still stronger than last year. The domestic arrival volume continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year [3] - **Demand**: The terminal demand was at a low level in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability was poor. The hot metal production continued to decrease last week [3] - **Price Trend**: The iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. There were short - term liquidity disturbances in some ore types. In the medium - to - long - term, with the gradual oversupply, there was a downward pressure on the overall trend [3] Coke - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated downward. The market still expected the second round of price cuts for coke. The coking profit was average, and the daily production increased slightly [4] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The coke inventory decreased slightly. The downstream purchased in small quantities as needed, and the inventory changed little. The traders' purchasing willingness was average. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the downstream hot metal decreased seasonally [4] - **Price Trend**: The coke futures price was at a premium, and the price was likely to be weak and oscillating [4] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were average, and the transaction prices mainly decreased [6] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The terminal inventory decreased slightly, the total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the downstream hot metal decreased seasonally [6] - **Price Trend**: The coking coal futures price was at a discount, and the price was likely to be weak and oscillating [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore increased. The Comilog quotation increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the reported volume decreased [7] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: There was a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance was relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursued the most cost - effective option and changed the manganese ore formula. The hot metal production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [7] - **Price Trend**: The bottom - support strength needed to be observed [7] Silicon Iron - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated. The market's expectation for coal mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power cost and semi - coke price [8] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The hot metal production rebounded to a high level. The export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still had some resilience. The silicon iron supply decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Price Trend**: The bottom - support strength needed to be observed [8]
黑色金属日报-20251128
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 12:44
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: Not provided Core Views - The steel market has seen a slight improvement in sentiment, but weak demand expectations still limit the upside. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to policy changes in the real estate sector [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be range-bound, with a generally loose fundamental situation but short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to experience weak and volatile price movements due to abundant carbon element supply and strong raw material price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by the expected decline in power and raw material costs, with overall demand showing some resilience [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, the apparent demand and production decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The overall demand is weak, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [2]. - Hot - rolled coil: Demand declined, production continued to increase, and inventory decreased slowly. The pressure still needs to be alleviated [2]. - Overall: Steel mills are in a loss - making state, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high. Domestic demand is weak, and exports have declined from the high level. The market sentiment has improved, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are stronger than the same period, domestic arrivals have rebounded to the annual high, and port inventory is in an accumulation trend [3]. - Demand: Steel apparent demand is low, in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. Iron - making is in a seasonal production - cut trend [3]. - Outlook: The fundamentals are loose, but there are short - term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties, and the market is expected to be range - bound [3]. Coke - Price: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The first round of price cuts is expected to be fully implemented next Monday [4]. - Supply and demand: Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly increased, and inventory has slightly increased. Downstream demand has some resilience, but steel mills have a strong desire to cut prices [4]. - Outlook: The price is likely to be weak and volatile [4]. Coking Coal - Supply: The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling [6]. - Inventory: Total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory has increased slightly [6]. - Outlook: The price is likely to be weak and volatile [6]. Silicomanganese - Cost: The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, leading to an expected decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [7]. - Supply and demand: Iron - making output has rebounded to a high level, weekly production has decreased slightly, and inventory is slowly increasing [7]. - Outlook: The bottom - support expectation has moved down [7]. Ferrosilicon - Cost: The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices [8]. - Supply and demand: Iron - making output has rebounded to a high level, export demand has declined, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand has some resilience [8]. - Outlook: The bottom - support strength will be tested [8]
黑色金属日报-20251121
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 11:09
Report Investment Ratings - The operation ratings for various products are as follows: Threaded steel is rated with three stars (★★★), hot-rolled coil with three white stars (☆☆☆), iron ore with three white stars (☆☆☆), coke with three red stars (★★★), coking coal with one red star (★☆☆), silicon manganese with one red star (★☆☆), and ferrosilicon with one red star (★☆☆) [1]. Core Views - The overall situation of the steel industry is complex. The demand is still pessimistic, the cost side is weak, and the market is under pressure. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile, and the coke and coking coal markets are likely to be weak. The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the bottom support expectation, while the ferrosilicon market has relatively strong bottom support [2][3][4]. Summary by Product Steel - Today's steel market is mainly volatile. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has improved, but the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and steel mills continue to lose money. The possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the export of steel has declined from its high level. The demand expectation is still pessimistic, and the market is under pressure, but there is still some support in the downward shift of the oscillation range [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is oscillating today. The global shipment is strong, and the domestic port inventory is still in an accumulative trend. The demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off-season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The iron ore fundamentals are marginally looser, and the market is expected to be mainly oscillating [3]. Coke - The coke price declined today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production is slightly decreasing. The inventory has slightly increased, and the downstream's procurement is on a small scale as needed. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coke market is expected to be weak and oscillating [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price declined today. The production of coking coal mines has slightly decreased, and the spot auction transactions are average. The overall supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream's demand for raw materials is still resilient, but the steel mills' profit is average, and they have a strong desire to lower the price of raw materials. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and oscillating [5]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price oscillated downward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, but the production of silicon manganese is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing. The bottom support expectation has shifted downward [6]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price oscillated upward today. The market expects an increase in coal mine supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power costs and semi-coke prices. The demand for iron water has rebounded to a high level, and the export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons. The overall demand is still resilient, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. The bottom support is relatively strong [7].
综合晨报-20251121
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 02:18
Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]
黑色金属日报-20251120
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:13
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ★★★ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆ (suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see) [1] - **Coke**: ★★★ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ (representing a bearish bias, with a driving force for price decline but poor operability on the market) [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall demand for steel is weak, and the cost support is loosening. The steel market is under short - term pressure, and it's necessary to pay attention to whether favorable policies will be introduced in the real estate sector [2]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are gradually becoming looser, and the market is expected to fluctuate [3]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are likely to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong raw material price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - The bottom - support expectations for silicon manganese and silicon iron have shifted downward, and the prices are under pressure [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Performance**: The steel market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel improved this week, production increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot - rolled coil recovered, production increased slightly, and inventory started to decline [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The downstream carrying capacity is insufficient, and steel mills are generally in a loss state. There is a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. Domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from the high level [2]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments are strong, and the shipments in the fourth quarter are expected to remain at a high level. The domestic arrival volume has declined, and port inventory is in an accumulating trend [3]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for steel has rebounded, but it has entered the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. The molten iron is in a seasonal production - cut trend, and there is still room for further decline in the future [3]. Coke - **Production and Inventory**: Coke production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Downstream customers are purchasing on - demand, and traders' purchasing意愿 is general [4]. - **Price Outlook**: The coke market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to sufficient carbon element supply and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4]. Coking Coal - **Production and Inventory**: Coking coal production increased slightly, and total inventory increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly [6]. - **Price Outlook**: The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the high expectation of coal mine supply guarantee and strong price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [6]. Silicon Manganese - **Cost and Inventory**: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and chemical coke prices. Manganese ore inventory increased slightly, and silicon manganese inventory is slowly accumulating [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon manganese production decreased slightly but remains at a high level. The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level [7]. Silicon Iron - **Cost and Inventory**: There are expectations of a decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices. Silicon iron supply remains at a high level, and on - balance inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Demand**: The demand for molten iron has rebounded to a high level, export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, and the production of magnesium metal has increased [8].
连跌3日创逾两个月新低,焦煤后续怎么走?
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-20 09:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic commodity futures market, particularly coking coal, is experiencing a downward trend due to weak fundamentals, with the main contract dropping over 3% to 1113.5 yuan/ton, marking a two-month low [1] - Supply expectations have increased following a meeting on heating supply, leading to a potential rise in coal mine supply, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors, causing steel and coking enterprises to slow down raw coal procurement [1][4] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with traders observing the situation closely as the demand from downstream sectors has decreased, impacting procurement strategies [4][7] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that coking coal is currently in a trading range between 1300 and 1100, with short-term support around 1103; a break below 1100 could lead to further declines towards 1090-1060 [3] - The overall market sentiment is weak, with many products experiencing declines of over 1%, indicating a lack of clear signals for a bottoming out [5] - The supply side shows slight increases in coking coal production, but the overall supply remains cautious due to environmental and safety inspections in major coal-producing areas [4][7]
黑色金属日报-20251118
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 14:04
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, silicon iron: ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait-and-see approach recommended [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing weak domestic demand, with the decline in real estate investment expanding and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment continuing to fall. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the market sentiment remains cautious, and there may be short-term fluctuations [2] - The iron ore market has a marginal loosening of fundamentals, with supply increasing and demand expected to decline further. The market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, but the steel mills' profit margins are average, leading to strong price pressure on raw materials. The prices are expected to be weakly volatile [4][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have an increase in the expectation of coal mine supply guarantee, and the demand has some resilience. The prices have strong bottom support [6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market shows that the off-season demand for thread steel is declining, and the inventory is decreasing. The demand for hot-rolled coil is stabilizing, and the inventory accumulation rhythm is slowing down. The iron water output has rebounded, but the downstream's ability to absorb is insufficient, and the proportion of steel mill losses is expanding. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - The futures market has adjusted relatively fully, and the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range has increased. The cost-side furnace materials are significantly differentiated, and the market sentiment remains cautious, with short-term fluctuations still possible [2] Iron Ore - The supply side shows that the global shipment has increased significantly, and the domestic arrival volume has decreased to below the annual average level. The port inventory has decreased at the beginning of the week, and there are some short-term structural disturbances [3] - The demand side shows that the off-season demand for steel is weak, and the steel mill losses are intensifying. The iron water output has rebounded in the short term but is still in the seasonal production reduction trend, with further production reduction space expected in the future [3] - The macro level is in a policy vacuum period, lacking expected drivers. The iron ore fundamentals are marginally loosening, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile [3] Coke - The supply side shows that the coking profit is still average, and the daily output has decreased slightly. The coke inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream is purchasing on demand, with the inventory slightly decreasing [4] - The demand side shows that the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron water output has returned to a high range, with some resilience in demand. However, the steel mill profit margins are average, leading to strong price pressure on raw materials [4] - The futures market shows that the intraday price has dropped significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [4] Coking Coal - The supply side shows that the market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the coking coal output has increased slightly. The spot auction transactions are normal, and the transaction prices are mixed. The terminal inventory has increased slightly [5] - The demand side shows that the carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron water output has returned to a high range, with some resilience in demand. However, the steel mill profit margins are average, leading to strong price pressure on raw materials [5] - The futures market shows that the intraday price has dropped significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [5] Silicon Manganese - The supply side shows that the market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the power cost and chemical coke price are expected to decline. The weekly output has decreased slightly, but the output is still at a relatively high level, and the inventory is slowly increasing [6] - The demand side shows that the iron water output has rebounded to a high range, and the demand has some resilience [6] - The cost side shows that the price of Comilog manganese ore has increased slightly, and the spot ore price has changed rapidly following the market trend. The manganese ore inventory has increased slightly, and the contradiction is not prominent. The price has strong bottom support [6] Silicon Iron - The supply side shows that the market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the power cost and blue carbon price are expected to decline. The supply remains at a high level, and the on-balance sheet inventory is continuously decreasing [7] - The demand side shows that the iron water output has rebounded to a high range, and the export demand has increased to about 40,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium output has increased, and the secondary demand has increased marginally. The overall demand has some resilience [7] - The cost side shows that the increase in electricity and blue carbon prices has led to a certain sentiment of bottoming out and rebounding. The price is judged to still have bottom support [7]