Report Summary 1. Report Title - Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250731: Rapid Mood Swings and High Volatility [2] 2. Core View - On July 30, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures rose and then fell. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium increased. With the cost side showing a decline in spodumene concentrate prices but flat mica prices, supply side seeing a decrease in carbonate lithium production last week, and downstream demand showing mixed trends (rising production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, falling production of cobalt acid lithium and manganese acid lithium in June, and rising power battery production last week). Terminal demand had continued year - on - year growth in new energy vehicle production and sales in June but a month - on - month decline in sales, and average 3C shipments. Storage battery production increased in June. With inventory showing compact registered warehouse receipts, destocking in smelters, and inventory accumulation in other sectors. Due to large fluctuations in commodity sentiment and exchange position limits cooling the market, short - term carbonate lithium prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to hold put options [3] 3. Key Data 3.1 Futures Data - **Closing Prices**: Near - month contract closed at 70,260 yuan/ton (-200 from the previous day), continuous - one contract at 70,600 yuan/ton (-240), continuous - two contract at 70,580 yuan/ton (+20), continuous - three contract at 70,580 yuan/ton (+20) [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Active contract trading volume was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867) [3] - **Warehouse Inventory**: 12,276 tons (unchanged) [3] - **Spreads**: Near - month minus continuous - one was -340 yuan/ton (+40), continuous - one minus continuous - two was 20 yuan/ton (-260), continuous - two minus continuous - three was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3] - **Basis**: SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium average price minus carbonate lithium active contract closing price was 2,350 yuan/ton (+40) [3] 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: Spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars/ton (-1), lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,140 yuan/ton (unchanged), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton (unchanged), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,675 yuan/ton (+75), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 6,625 yuan/ton (+125) [3] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: Battery - grade carbonate lithium (99.5%, domestic) was 72,950 yuan/ton (-200), industrial - grade carbonate lithium (99.2%, domestic) was 70,850 yuan/ton (-150), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, CIF China, Japan, South Korea) was 8.28 US dollars/kg (unchanged), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic, coarse particles) was 65,470 yuan/ton (+50), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%, domestic, fine powder) was 70,620 yuan/ton (+50) [3] - **Price Spreads**: Battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade carbonate lithium spread was -7,480 yuan/ton (+250), battery - grade carbonate lithium and industrial - grade carbonate lithium spread was 2,100 yuan/ton (-50), CIF China, Japan, South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide spread was -6,316.85 yuan/ton (-107.96) [3] 3.3 Inventory Data - **SMM Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: Smelters had 55,385 tons (-2,654 compared to the previous week), downstream had 42,815 tons (+1,544), others had 44,970 tons (+1,660), and the total was 143,170 tons (+550) [3] 4. Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with directors Waller and Bowman voting against and advocating for a rate cut [3] - On July 30, Pilbara Minerals announced its lithium spodumene concentrate production in the fourth fiscal quarter was 221,300 tons, and sales volume reached 216,000 tons, showing stable performance in lithium ore production and market supply [3] - Guangzhou Futures Exchange limited the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients in the carbonate lithium futures LC2509 contract to no more than 500 lots, and in LC2510, LC2511, LC2512, LC2601 contracts to no more than 2,000 lots each [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View - On July 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell during the session. The trading volume was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867). The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium increased. The price of spodumene concentrate decreased, while the mica price remained flat. Last week, lithium carbonate production decreased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production scheduling of ternary materials rose. In June, the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production scheduling of energy - storage batteries increased in June. In terms of inventory, the registered warehouse receipts were 12,276 (+0) tons, the social inventory was tight, smelters destocked, and downstream and others restocked. Overall, the commodity sentiment fluctuated greatly, and the exchange's position limit cooled the market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to hold put options [3] Summary by Relevant Data Futures Market Data - **Prices**: The closing prices of the near - month contract, the first - continuous contract, the second - continuous contract, and the third - continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures were 70,260 yuan/ton, 70,600 yuan/ton, 70,580 yuan/ton, and 70,580 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month contract decreased by 200 yuan/ton, the first - continuous contract decreased by 240 yuan/ton, the second - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the third - continuous contract increased by 20 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 792,909 lots (+48,749), and the open interest was 272,753 lots (-27,867) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 12,276 tons, with no change compared with the previous day [3] - **Spreads**: The spreads of near - month - first - continuous, first - continuous - second - continuous, and second - continuous - third - continuous were - 340 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025. Compared with the previous day, the near - month - first - continuous spread increased by 40 yuan/ton, the first - continuous - second - continuous spread decreased by 260 yuan/ton, and the second - continuous - third - continuous spread remained unchanged [3] - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 2,350 yuan/ton on July 30, 2025, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3] Spot Market Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 776 US dollars/ton on July 30, 2025, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton compared with the previous day. The average prices of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%), phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) were 1,140 yuan/ton, 1,775 yuan/ton, 5,675 yuan/ton, and 6,625 yuan/ton respectively, with 0, 0, 75, and 125 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic), industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, micronized), and other lithium compounds had different changes on July 30, 2025, compared with the previous day. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide were - 7,480 yuan/ton, 2,100 yuan/ton, and - 6,316.85 yuan/ton respectively on July 30, 2025, with 250, - 50, and - 107.96 yuan/ton changes compared with the previous day [3] Inventory Data - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory on July 24, 2025, was 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of smelters was 55,385 tons (-2,654 tons compared with the previous week), the inventory of downstream was 42,815 tons (+1,544 tons compared with the previous week), and the inventory of others was 44,970 tons (+1,660 tons compared with the previous week) [3] Industry News - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% unchanged, and governors Waller and Bowman voted against and advocated for an interest rate cut [3] - On July 30, 2025, Pilbara Minerals announced that its spodumene concentrate production in the fourth fiscal quarter was 221,300 tons, and the sales volume reached 216,000 tons [3] - Non - futures company members or customers are restricted in the single - day opening positions of lithium carbonate futures contracts. For example, the single - day opening position in the LC2509 contract shall not exceed 500 lots, and in the LC2510, LC2511, LC2512, LC2601 contracts, it shall not exceed 2,000 lots [3]