交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA2月报：25/26年度产量 2609.6万吨，消费2584.7万吨，期末库存1635.3万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部2月25/26年度：产量664万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存829万 吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价16119，基差1379（05合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年2月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量 2608.1万吨，消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万 吨。中性。 6：预期：棉花主力05背靠14500横盘整理，短期14500附近支撑较强。春节长假即将到来， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices rose first and then fell. After a continuous rebound, the correction was relatively rapid. The main cotton contract 05 faces significant pressure around 15,000. After a rapid correction, prices are expected to fluctuate around 14,500 [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - Chinese New Year inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. After continuous rebounds, the correction was relatively fast. The expected reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 may exceed 10%. According to the USDA December report, the production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - Chinese New Year inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period [7]. - Negative factors: Decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (December)**: In the 2025/2026 season, global production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.873 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, and export data among different countries. For example, the US production is expected to increase by 38.1% year - on - year, while Australia's production is expected to decrease by 23.9% year - on - year [11][12]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025)**: The planting area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Data**: In the 2025/2026 season, production is 7.278 million tons, imports are 1.1 million tons, consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - The cotton market is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. In the short - term, the main 05 contract is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a possibility of回调 after continuous rapid surges [4][5]. - Positive factors include potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area by over 10% in 2026, a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased export volume, enhanced replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises, and favorable factors such as basis and market trends [4][5][6]. - Negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, large - scale listing of new cotton, and the traditional off - season for consumption [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be reduced by over 10%. According to the USDA December report, the 2025/2026 production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. Cotton imports in November were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons. Overall, it is bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,711, and the basis for the 05 contract is 856, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast of China's ending inventory is 8.35 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [6]. - **Expectation**: The main factors for the current rebound are a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased export volume, enhanced replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises due to rising cotton prices, and significant reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in the new year. The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it will continue to fluctuate upward, with a higher probability of回调 after continuous rapid surges [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Forecast**: In December, the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, imports are 9.522 million tons, exports are 9.524 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [11][12]. - **ICAC Forecast**: In November 2025, the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 9.71442 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In 2025/2026, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on cotton is that the short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it will continue the volatile upward trend with possible fluctuations like "three steps forward, two steps back". The bullish factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026, a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased downstream replenishment due to rising cotton prices, and positive indicators such as the 20 - day moving average trend, k - line position, and main force's long - position trend. However, there are also bearish factors such as a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large number of new cotton listings, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [4][5][6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - There is no information about the previous day's review in the provided content. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area is expected to be reduced by over 10%. Different reports have different data on cotton production and consumption. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report shows a 2025/2026 production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons, while the USDA 11 - month report shows a production of 2614.5 tons and consumption of 2588.3 tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. Cotton imports in November were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 data shows a production of 6.7 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.35 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are considered bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,615, and the basis for the 05 contract is 960, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.35 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Force Position**: The position is bullish, with an increase in net long positions, and the main force's trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectations**: The factors driving this round of rebound include a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, a month - on - month increase in exports, an increase in downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish stocks due to rising cotton prices, and significant policy - regulated reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in the new year [4]. 3. Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In 2025/2026, the total global production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.873 million tons, imports are 9.522 million tons, exports are 9.524 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In 2025/2026, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In 2025/2026, the beginning inventory is 9.853 million tons, production is 7.278 million tons, imports are 1.1 million tons, consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [14]. 5. Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.

Sugar Market Overview - Raw sugar prices in December fluctuated between 14.3 and 15.3 cents per pound. As of December 15, 2025, India's sugar production for the 2025/26 season reached 7.825 million tons, an increase of 1.697 million tons or 27.69% year-on-year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 478, slightly up from 477 the previous year [2][11] - Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume as of December 27 was 14.0733 million tons, down by 2.8243 million tons or 16.71% year-on-year. The sugar content in sugarcane was 11.44%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous year, while the sugar extraction rate increased to 9.09%, up by 0.095% year-on-year. The total sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down by 240.6 thousand tons or 15.83% year-on-year [2][11] Domestic Market Insights - In December, the new sugar prices from Guangxi Sugar Group ranged from 5,310 to 5,410 yuan per ton, a decrease of approximately 150 yuan per ton. Yunnan Sugar Group's new sugar prices were between 5,140 and 5,240 yuan per ton, also down by about 150 yuan per ton. The main processing sugar factory prices ranged from 5,780 to 5,900 yuan per ton [3][12] - In November 2025, China imported 440 thousand tons of sugar, a decrease of 93.4 thousand tons year-on-year. From January to November 2025, sugar imports totaled 4.3416 million tons, an increase of 376.4 thousand tons or 9.49% year-on-year. For the 2025/26 season, sugar imports reached 1.1862 million tons, up by 115.9 thousand tons or 10.83% year-on-year [3][13] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current market remains relatively calm, with no new updates from Brazil. The production progress in the Northern Hemisphere is the main focus, with India's production significantly ahead year-on-year. However, raw sugar prices have not yet reached levels that would allow India to export, indicating that production issues are more of an emotional restraint rather than an actual increase in trade flows. Future attention will be on India's latest production estimates [4][14] - The domestic sugar market experienced a decline in prices due to optimistic production expectations, leading to a recovery after an oversold situation. January is expected to see continued high production levels, but with ample supply, further price increases may face challenges. The market is expected to stabilize around 5,300 yuan per ton, with a focus on inventory accumulation before the upcoming holiday [4][14]

Sugar Industry - As of December 15, India has 479 sugar mills operating for the 2025/26 crushing season, an increase of 6 mills year-on-year [2] - Sugar production in India is 7.79 million tons, which is an increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% year-on-year [2] - Domestic spot prices for new sugar in Guangxi are quoted at 5340-5440 CNY/ton, down by 10 CNY/ton, while Yunnan's new sugar is priced at 5210-5320 CNY/ton, also down by 10 CNY/ton [2] - The market is experiencing general concerns due to the recent influx of new sugar, leading to a slight decline in domestic spot prices [2] Cotton Industry - On Monday, ICE cotton rose by 0.16% to 63.93 cents per pound, while CF601 increased by 1.08% to 14,000 CNY/ton [3] - The main contract's open interest decreased by 50,374 contracts to 347,100 contracts [3] - The cotton 3128B spot price index is at 14,690 CNY/ton, up by 60 CNY/ton from the previous day [3] - The market is awaiting U.S. economic data, with fluctuations in the dollar index impacting sentiment [3] - Recent updates on U.S. cotton exports show relatively good performance, providing some support for cotton prices [3] - There are discussions regarding the regulation of cotton planting areas for the new year, with expectations for an official report [3][8] - The cotton market is characterized by mixed factors, with support from demand and policy, while facing pressure from high production levels and potential hedging pressures [8]