白糖：北半球压榨进度与估产偏差问题主导1月糖市 （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 1、原糖：12月原糖期价维持14.3-15.3美分/磅之间震荡。消息方面，截至2025年12月15日，印度2025/26 榨季糖产量达到782.5万吨，较去年同期的612.8万吨增加169.7万吨，增幅27.69%；已开榨糖厂478家， 较去年同 期的477家略有增加。截至12月27日，泰国累计甘蔗入榨量为1407.33万吨，较去年同期的 1689.76万吨减少 282.43万吨，降幅16.71%；甘蔗含糖分11.44%，较去年同期的11.51%减少0.07%；产 糖率为9.09%，较去年同期 的8.995%增加0.095%；产糖量为127.93万吨，较去年同期的151.99万吨减少 24.06万吨，降幅15.83%。 2、国内现货：广西制糖集团新糖报价5310~5410元/吨，本月下跌约150元/吨；云南制糖集团新糖报价 5140~5240元/吨，本月下跌约150元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为5780~5900元/吨。配额内进口估算价 4120~4160元/吨；配额外进口估算价5230 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 巴西对外贸易秘书处(Secex)最新出口数据显示，巴西12月前三周出口棉花31.66万吨，日均出口量为 21,105.79吨，较上年12月全月的日均出口量增加26%。上年12月全月巴西棉花出口量为35.29万吨。 ...

2026 年度资源品策略报告 光期研究 2026 年度资源品策略报告 光大期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 白糖：全球供应充裕 价格重心继续小幅下移 3 | | --- | | 棉花：需求有韧性，价格有支撑 24 | | 尿素：过往已矣，静待政策东风 44 | | 纯碱玻璃：筑底路漫漫，底部何所依？ 61 | 2026 年度资源品策略报告 白糖：全球供应充裕 价格重心继续小幅下移 资源品研究总监：张笑金 年报摘要： ⚫ 2025 年行情回顾 2025 年受全球进入到丰产周期抑制，原糖期价震荡下行，全年期价 跌幅 21.62%。郑糖期价先升后降，全年主力合约期价波动区间在 5330- 6200 元/吨，全年跌幅 9.41%。 ⚫ 2026 年市场分析逻辑 2025/26 榨季全球食糖供应充裕；消费方面表现平平；库存端因巴西、 印度乙醇政策的推进，食糖库存并未因甘蔗丰产而显现过大的压力；变 数在于巴西 2026/27 榨季的产量增幅问题。 价格方面因总供应充裕，原糖价格预计仍以中低价位运行为主，上 方压力来自于印度出口边界 19-2 ...

2014年，在共建"一带一路"倡议推动下， 中国-塔吉克斯坦合作项目丹加拉农业纺织产业园应运而生。 带着用中国技术助力当地多产棉、产好棉的心愿， 来自中国的纺织人在这片异国土地上， 十余年如一日，书写了别样的奋斗篇章。 这是在塔吉克斯坦哈特隆州丹加拉区拍摄的中塔合作项目丹加拉农业纺织产业园（无人机照片）。 一名中方员工在中塔合作项目丹加拉农业纺织产业园的纺纱二车间工作。 塔方员工古夫龙在中塔合作项目丹加拉农业纺织产业园的针织车间工作。 在中塔合作项目丹加拉农业纺织产业园的针织车间，中方员工指导塔方员工古夫龙（右）工作。 这里的生产车间敞亮整洁，不少纺织器械都是中国制造。工人们专心致志地进行各项工作，其中女员工占据相当比例。当地女性以前大多是家 庭妇女，在家照顾孩子或做一些食品去集市出售。 塔方员工在中塔合作项目丹加拉农业纺织产业园的印染车间工作。 塔方员工在中塔合作项目丹加拉农业纺织产业园的印染车间工作。 一名塔方员工在中塔合作项目丹加拉农业纺织产业园的纺纱二车间工作。 产业园依托中国科学成熟的棉花种植管理技术，发挥中塔产能互补优势，建立了囊括棉花种植、皮棉加工、纺纱、织布、印染、成衣的全产业 链示范园区，完 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The short - term external market is strong, but the continuous upward space of sugar price is limited. It is expected to maintain range - bound. In China, the inventory pressure is low in July, but the concentrated arrival of third - quarter shipments and increased imports in the second half of the year will bring pressure to domestic sugar sales. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize after a sharp correction [3]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals of pulp and its downstream have changed little. The import volume in July was high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is difficult to rebound. The price increase is difficult to be transmitted, but the price is less likely to return to the June low [5]. - **Cotton**: The external market may continue to bottom - hunting, and the domestic market is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The price may continue to fluctuate and sort out in the short term [7]. - **Apples**: The current focus is on the end of the old season and the realization of the new season. The initial production estimate cannot provide a trend guide. The price of early - maturing apples has risen, but the sustainability needs to be tracked. The overall price of the apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [8]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory is being depleted, and the spot price is running strongly. The 2601 contract is recommended for long - holding, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on production [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apples**: Temporarily wait and see. The support range is 7400 - 7500, and the pressure range is 8300 - 8400 [18]. - **Jujubes**: Hold long positions. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Sugar**: Try to go long when it回调 to the lower edge of the range. The support range is 5500 - 5530, and the pressure range is 5670 - 5700 [18]. - **Pulp**: Short on rallies. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [18]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume decreased. The inventory in cold storage decreased. There are different estimates of production, with a slight increase or decrease [19]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong is stable. The shipment volume is general. The price of early - maturing apples varies greatly. The arrival at the wholesale market is small, and the price is stable [20][21]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of August 8, the inventory decreased. The arrival at the sales area increased, and the spot price was strong. Attention should be paid to terminal consumption and shipment sustainability [22]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The domestic spot price is stable, and the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.54 cents/pound. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing is high [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The transaction of imported bleached softwood pulp is light. The price increase is not accepted by buyers. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has increased, and two companies plan to reduce production [27]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - Vietnam's cotton textile and clothing production data from January to July 2025 shows an increase in textile production and a decrease in clothing production. - Brazil's cotton picking progress is advancing, but lags behind last year. - Australia's cotton export volume increased significantly in June. - Pakistan's cotton imports increased significantly from July 2024 to June 2025. - Thailand's cotton imports increased in June. - Egypt's cotton net signing and shipment volume increased in the week ending August 9 [28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 8178 | 51 | 0.63% | | Jujube 2509 | 10385 | - 145 | - 1.38% | | Sugar 2509 | 5706 | 28 | 0.49% | | Pulp 2509 | 5216 | 14 | 0.27% | | Cotton 2601 | 13980 | 100 | 0.72% | [30] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | 0.15 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5960 | 0 | - 540 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5850 | 0 | - 250 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15177 | 16 | 407 | [33] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [44][45][49]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 193 | - 5 | 84 | Fluctuate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1165 | - 1155 | - 580 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 98 | - 7 | - 235 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 70 | 20 | 105 | Range - bound | Temporarily wait and see | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [58][60][65]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 9214 | 0 | - 970 | | Sugar | 17853 | - 387 | 1901 | | Pulp | 253327 | 1872 | - 239490 | | Cotton | 8087 | - 85 | - 2309 | [78] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [80][82][83].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) declined with a weekly drop of about 4.13%, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) fell 3.09%. Internationally, due to poor US cotton export data and a stronger US dollar, the US cotton futures price has been falling. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with no news about quotas yet, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. However, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with spinning mills having no profit, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and more cautious raw material procurement. In terms of new crops, China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down. Overall, although the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, the downstream demand is weak, the area and output of new crops are increasing, the weather theme has cooled down, and there are expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09% [7]. - **International Situation**: US cotton futures prices have been falling due to poor export data and a stronger US dollar. As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales [7]. - **Domestic Situation**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before new cotton is launched, and there is no news about quotas. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, spinning mills have no profit, the operating rate is declining, and raw material procurement is cautious. China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.95%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton was 64,278 contracts, a 0.54% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short - position was 91,528 contracts, a 2.82% increase; the CFTC net position of US cotton was - 27,250 contracts, a 8.64% decrease [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales. As of July 29, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.8 cents per pound, a 0.13% increase from the previous period [16]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 18,064 contracts, and that in cotton yarn futures was 21 contracts. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 8,807 contracts, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 89 contracts [21][26][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,260 yuan per ton. As of July 31, 2025, the CY index of OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton. As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,680 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: This week, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contracts was - 200 yuan per ton, and the spread between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,420 yuan per ton [35]. - **Futures Basis**: This week, the basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract was + 1,675 yuan per ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract was 940 yuan per ton [45]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Price**: As of July 30, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,616 yuan per ton, a 0.89% decrease from the previous period; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,360 yuan per ton, a 0.62% decrease. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was 21,230 yuan per ton, a 0.09% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C21S was 20,195 yuan per ton, a 0.08% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:JC32S was 23,110 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease [53]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 30, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,110 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,854 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease from the previous period. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease from the previous period. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were about 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, China's cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative cotton yarn imports were 670,000 tons [60][64]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase from the previous period, and the坯布 inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase from the previous period [68]. - **Terminal Consumption**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease from the previous period; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase from the previous period. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase from the previous period; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease from the previous period [72][76]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not mentioned [77]. - **Stock Market**: The report mentions the Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis data is provided [80].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Core Views - Sugar: Sugarcane planting area has increased due to economic benefits, policy support, and enterprise incentives, but early drought in Guangxi has limited sugar production growth. Sugar consumption is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, with a stable supply - demand gap and an expected import volume of 5 million tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Xinjiang's stable cotton target price subsidy policy has maintained farmers' planting enthusiasm, increasing the planting area slightly, while the area in inland regions has decreased. With good climate conditions during sowing and emergence, the expected yield per hectare is 2,172 kg (144.8 kg per mu), the same as last year. The total production is expected to reach 6.25 million tons, a 1.4% increase. Affected by US tariffs, cotton consumption is expected to be weak, but there is still uncertainty. The expected consumption for the new year is 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last year, and the import volume is adjusted down to 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [1]. Data Summary 1. Price and Spread Data - **External Quotes**: On June 4 - 5, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 0.78% from $16.75 to $16.62, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.42% from $65.05 to $65.32 [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Sugar spot prices in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged at 6,090 and 5,910 respectively; the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.01% from 3,281 to 3,280, and the cotton price in Xinjiang remained at 14,450 [3]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR05 - 09, and SR09 - 01 increased by 11.11%, 6.88%, and 5.65% respectively; the spread of CF01 - 05 decreased by 33.33%, and the spread of CF05 - 09 increased by 12.50%, while the spread of CF09 - 01 remained unchanged [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of sugar 01, 05, and 09 increased by 8.74%, 9.01%, and 11.11% respectively; the basis of cotton 01, 05, and 09 increased by 1.55%, 1.13%, and 1.49% respectively [3]. 2. Import and Profit Data - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 78.25 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained at 1,609 on June 4 - 5, 2025 [3]. 3. Option and Volatility Data - **Options**: For options SR509C5700 and SR509P5700, the implied volatility is 0.0781 and 0.0785 respectively, with SR509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 9.04; for options CF509C13200 and CF509P13200, the implied volatility is 0.0964 and 0.0943 respectively, with CF509 as the futures underlying and a historical volatility of 12.42 [3]. 4. Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 4 - 5, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.34% from 30,300 to 29,893, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.35% from 10,977 to 10,939 [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19th - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a large - scale domestic futures company, wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It is a full - settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - power member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1][9].