2025年外汇市场以美元的显著疲软收官，该货币正遭遇自2017年以来最大的年度跌幅。 最新的市场动态显示，美元指数全年重挫9.5%，创下八年来最差表现。在2025年的最后一个交易日，美元指数徘徊在98.228附近，但整体下行趋 势难以逆转。在美元走弱的背景下，非美货币全线反弹，欧元和英镑分别以13.5%和7.6%的年度涨幅领跑，均创下八年来的最佳年度表现。 市场对美联储独立性的担忧进一步加剧了美元的压力。随着特朗普宣布计划于明年1月公布新任美联储主席提名人选，以接替将于5月任期届满的 杰罗姆·鲍威尔，政策不确定性显著上升。据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）数据显示，自今年4月以来，市场始终维持美元净空头头寸，显示 出投资者对美元前景的持续悲观情绪。 展望2026年，分析人士普遍认为美元的疲软态势可能会延续。高盛策略师指出，在全球经济稳健增长、美联储降息而其他央行按兵不动的背景 下，美元大概率将继续走弱。这不仅支撑了欧元和英镑的强势，也为新兴市场货币提供了喘息空间。 美元前景阴云密布 美元在2025年的颓势主要源于宏观政策与政治环境的双重挤压。除降息周期开启外，市场对美国财政赤字扩大以及特朗普关税政策的担忧挥 ...

美财长贝森特：不担心美元汇率，欧元强势源于欧洲财政扩张 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为10.4%，降息25个基点的概率为89.6%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为4.9%，累计降息25个基点 的概率为47.3%，累计降息50个基点的概率为47.9%。 来源：新浪网 9月2日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1089，下调17.00点。 美联储9月降息概率为89.6% 美国财长贝森特周一表示，他并不担心美元相对于欧元的汇率地位，并指出由于欧洲财政扩张政策的影响，欧元理应保持强势。"在德国引领下，欧洲正在 实施大规模财政扩张，"贝森特在接受采访时表示，"市场．．．正在良好运转。" ...

Group 1 - The recent rebound in US stocks has weakened investor confidence in the sustainability of the European shift strategy, but analysts believe the strong performance of the euro presents new opportunities for investors [1][4] - As of last Friday, the Stoxx 600 index has risen 6.6% this year, while the S&P 500 index has increased by 6.8%. In March, the Stoxx index was leading by 10 percentage points, but the strong rebound in US tech stocks reversed this trend [1][4] - The euro has appreciated by 14% against the dollar this year, nearing the 1.20 USD mark, which could support returns on European stocks and erode returns on US stocks if the euro remains strong [1][4] Group 2 - Many analysts initially predicted the euro would fall below 1 USD, but it is now approaching 1.20 USD. Deutsche Bank's forex strategy head noted that foreign investors can weaken the dollar by simply refusing to buy more US assets [4] - The S&P 500 index, despite reaching a historical high, has seen a 9% decline when priced in euros since its February peak, indicating that currency fluctuations significantly impact returns for euro-based investors [5] Group 3 - The rebound in US stocks since mid-April is partly attributed to the shift from trade war to trade negotiations, with a significant turning point occurring during the earnings season when tech CEOs projected strong profits [6] - The tech sector, which constitutes about one-third of the S&P 500 index, has risen 24% since early April, with Nvidia, the largest company by market capitalization, increasing by 45%. In contrast, the European market lacks similar standout stocks [6] - DWS forecasts that GDP growth in the US and Europe will be similar in 2025 and 2026, providing sustainable momentum for European corporate earnings. The forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is slightly above 20, while the Stoxx 600 is below 15 [6] Group 4 - Investor interest in European stocks is primarily focused on the defense and banking sectors, with estimates showing the defense sector has risen by 50% this year and the banking sector by 28%, contributing over 50% of the Stoxx 600 index's returns despite only accounting for 16% of the index's weight [6]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is concerned that the strong euro may have negative consequences, with the euro rising 14% to 1.18 against the dollar, contrary to expectations of parity this year [2] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos stated that while the current exchange rate of 1.18 is manageable, a rise above 1.20 would complicate matters significantly [2] - The strong euro is lowering import prices, which could dampen inflation, while increasing export costs, impacting the trade-dependent European economy amid trade tensions with the US [2] Group 2 - Tomasz Wieladek, Chief European Economist at PIMCO, warned that if the euro reaches 1.25 against the dollar, the ECB may need to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to mitigate inflation and economic impacts [3] - The ECB has already halved interest rates to 2% since June 2024, but the Federal Reserve's rates remain significantly higher, leading to unusual capital flows towards Europe [3] - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the dollar is facing issues, prompting investors to seek alternatives, although she did not directly address the impact on monetary policy [3] Group 3 - Concerns are rising within the ECB as inflation in the eurozone reached the 2% mid-term target in June, with expectations of a drop to 1.6% next year [4] - Pooja Kumra from TD Securities warned that a strong euro combined with US tariffs could lead the eurozone back into a deflationary environment similar to the 2010s [4] - There is a dilemma for the ECB regarding currency intervention, as unilateral actions could backfire, and a prominent decision-maker noted that global central banks generally avoid such interventions [4] Group 4 - Some investors remain optimistic, with Mike Riddell from Fidelity International stating that the EU's significant trade surplus supports the euro's strength, suggesting that policymakers' complaints about the strong euro are unfounded [4] - Croatian central bank governor Boris Vujcic remarked that the current exchange rate is not abnormal and has been stable compared to historical levels since the euro's inception [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that Europeans are feeling anxious about the strength of the euro, suggesting that the European Central Bank (ECB) may lower interest rates to help bring the euro down [1] Group 1 - European concerns regarding the strong euro are prevalent among its citizens [1] - The potential for the ECB to implement interest rate cuts is being discussed as a measure to address the euro's strength [1]