凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商 学界精英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 在论坛间隙，著名经济学家付鹏就市场高度关注的股市、房地产、汽车等核心行业热点话题发表了独家观点。 谈及当前资本市场表现时，他指出，当前市场存在资金过度向特定板块集中的现象，导致整体赚钱效应未能广泛扩散 —— 这一结构性特征，正是市 场表面看似交易活跃，但始终难以吸引大量新投资者开户入市的关键原因。 对于备受瞩目的房地产行业，付鹏进一步明确表示："房地产已彻底回归居住属性。" 01 资金全挤向科创小微，普涨行情尚未到来 针对当前市场"余额回升但新开户数未激增"的现象，付鹏向凤凰网财经给出了他的解读。 著名经济学家付鹏（左一） 他认为，当前市场参与者分为两类：一是追求稳定股息的红利的低风险偏好"老钱"，它们构成了市场的稳定基本盘；二是追求超额收益（阿尔法）的 资金，这类资金在7月份后高度集中于科创板、小微盘等领域，创造了局部的财富效应。 付鹏指出，由于资金过度集中于特定板块，未能形成广泛的赚钱效应，这解释了为何市场看似活跃，但 ...

针对汽车行业，付鹏直言，将售价二三十万乃至四十几万的车辆视为快消品是一种值得警惕的理念错 配。 他强调，汽车作为高单价、重实用的耐用消费品，其本质与"越用不着的东西才越快消"的逻辑相 悖。 他认为，真正的快消品往往是那些非必需、易替换的物品，而汽车作为满足日常出行核心需求的 工具，其购买决策应更侧重于实用性、可靠性和长期价值，而非单纯追逐短期的外观或功能噱头。 就当前消费文化与产业逻辑的变迁，东北证券首席经济学家付鹏对汽车行业"快消品化"趋势提出警示。 他指出，当前部分车企推崇的"快速迭代、营销驱动"模式，虽在短期内迎合了年轻消费者的新鲜感需 求，但若将汽车这一高价耐用消费品完全等同于"快消品"运营，其长期风险不可忽视。 付鹏以生动的市场观察切入，指出当前消费文化正面临"快速引爆、快速沉寂"的挑战。他提到，如同潮 玩IP可能"小红书火一晚，明天就被淹没"一样，若产品缺乏深厚的文化底蕴与持久生命力，仅靠短期流 量驱动，极易沦为"快速消费品"。 他将此现象比喻为"硬币的正反两面"：新型传播渠道能让品牌如拉 布布般迅速风靡，实现"出圈"的胜利；但若无法守住热度，避免滑向"另一面"，即被快速遗忘，则难以 支撑起可持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing a rapid pace of new car launches, with an average of 3.2 new models introduced daily, reflecting a trend towards "fast-moving consumer goods" (FMCG) characteristics in vehicles [1][2] Group 1: Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Trend - The shift towards FMCG in the automotive sector is driven by shorter replacement cycles, with traditional fuel vehicles averaging 6-8 years and electric vehicles (EVs) now at 3-5 years [2] - The rapid iteration of EVs is influenced by the short lifespan of batteries and the fast-paced evolution of software and algorithms, making the FMCG trend difficult to resist [2][3] - The depreciation rate of electric vehicles has accelerated, with some models experiencing a first-year depreciation rate as high as 50% [3] Group 2: Competitive Pressure and Market Dynamics - The automotive market has transformed into a competitive landscape where companies must continuously innovate to avoid being left behind, leading to a phenomenon described as "racing anxiety" [6][10] - Companies are increasingly adopting modular solutions from suppliers to keep up with rapid product iterations, which shifts the competitive focus towards supply chain management efficiency [6] - The market is witnessing a proliferation of similar products, raising concerns about potential overcapacity as numerous models compete in the same segments [9] Group 3: Future Outlook and Industry Consolidation - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to transition from a fragmented market to a more concentrated one, with a prediction of a "Seven Heroes" scenario where a few dominant players emerge [10] - Companies achieving annual sales of 3 million units are likely to secure a place among the leading brands, while those with 1 million units will face survival challenges [10]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is experiencing a transformation towards a "fast-moving consumer goods" (FMCG) model, characterized by rapid vehicle updates and intense competition among manufacturers [1][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The average new car iteration rate among domestic manufacturers has risen to approximately 3.2 models per day, indicating a significant acceleration in product updates [1]. - The trend of "half-year facelifts and annual model changes" reflects the FMCG nature of the automotive market, which increases consumer choices but also intensifies competition among automakers [1][3]. - The average vehicle age in China is about 8 years, with traditional fuel vehicles having a replacement cycle of 6-8 years, while electric vehicles have a shorter cycle of 3-5 years [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The depreciation rate of electric vehicles has accelerated, with some models experiencing a first-year depreciation rate as high as 50% [4]. - The competition is shifting from merely increasing production to focusing on technology, brand, and ecosystem, as companies aim to establish a stronger market presence [2][10]. - The automotive market is evolving from a "spring and autumn" era of competition to a "warring states" era, where only the strongest will survive, with a sales volume of 1 million units becoming the new survival threshold [10]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly influenced by the rapid iteration of vehicle models, leading to a potential shift in purchasing decisions as they await newer models [4][9]. - The market is seeing a proliferation of large SUVs, with multiple manufacturers launching similar models, raising concerns about potential market saturation [8]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - Companies are under pressure to innovate continuously, leading to a focus on supply chain management efficiency as a competitive advantage [7]. - The automotive industry is expected to undergo significant consolidation, with a few leading companies dominating the market, while others may struggle to keep up [10].

Core Viewpoint - The rapid iteration of new car models in China's automotive industry reflects a trend towards "fast consumer goods" characteristics, driven by competitive pressures and technological advancements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Domestic car manufacturers are launching an average of 3.2 new models daily, indicating a significant acceleration in the pace of new car introductions [1]. - The shift towards faster product updates has led to a reduction in the replacement cycle for traditional fuel vehicles to approximately 6-8 years, while electric vehicles have a shorter cycle of 3-5 years [2]. - The overall production and sales of automobiles in China from January to July reached 18.235 million and 18.269 million units, respectively, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.7% and 12% [3]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Valuation - The depreciation rate of electric vehicles has increased, with some models experiencing a first-year depreciation rate as high as 50% [3]. - The rapid iteration of models may lead to consumer hesitation in purchasing decisions, as frequent updates can create uncertainty about the value of existing models [3][4]. - The average age of vehicles in China is around 8 years, with over 300 million vehicles in circulation, highlighting the potential for increased turnover in the electric vehicle segment [2]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The automotive market is evolving into a highly competitive environment, with companies feeling pressured to innovate continuously to maintain market share [5][6]. - The emergence of new players, such as Xiaomi and Huawei, is intensifying competition, leading to a potential market consolidation where only the strongest survive [8]. - Industry experts predict that the automotive sector will transition from a fragmented market to a more concentrated one, resembling a "Seven Heroes" scenario, where a few dominant players will emerge [8]. Group 4: Technological and Strategic Considerations - The rapid pace of technological advancement, particularly in battery and software, is a key driver of the fast consumer goods trend in the automotive sector [2]. - Companies are increasingly adopting modular solutions from suppliers to keep up with the fast-paced market, which may shift the competitive focus towards supply chain management efficiency [6]. - The need for differentiation in a crowded market is leading to concerns about potential overproduction and the sustainability of certain segments [7].