Core Viewpoint - The demand for tin solder is expected to accelerate due to AI-driven computing infrastructure, innovation cycles in smart devices, and the electrification/intelligentization of automobiles, with a projected CAGR of 7% from 2024 to 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: Demand Drivers - The demand for tin solder is driven by AI advancements, smart device innovation, and the automotive sector's shift towards electrification and intelligence [2]. - Traditional demand is also expected to benefit from global fiscal and monetary policy easing, with a growing urgency for "safety stock" in the context of de-globalization, leading to a projected global tin demand CAGR of 4.3% from 2024 to 2030 [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Major tin-producing regions are facing resource constraints and frequent disruptions, with China's tin reserves and static reserve-to-production ratio declining due to insufficient prior exploration [3]. - Indonesia is experiencing multiple issues, including shrinking tin reserves, declining grades, and increased mining difficulties, compounded by frequent policy changes that exacerbate supply disruptions [3]. - Myanmar's previous extensive mining practices have led to significant declines in grade and output, with uncertainties surrounding the resumption of production in the Wa region [3]. - Other regions have projects mostly in early stages, and the supply elasticity of recycled tin is limited due to the miniaturization of solder [3]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Balance and Price Outlook - The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with projected supply-demand ratios for tin from 2025 to 2030 being -6%, -1%, +1%, +1.6%, +1%, and -0.3% respectively [4]. - The continuous decline in global tin ore grades is pushing up industry cost lines, alongside rising global inflation expectations and geopolitical risk premiums, which may elevate the incentive prices for potential global tin mining projects [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Since 2020, the central price of tin has increased, leading to overall improved industry profitability and valuation normalization, with the current industry PE at the 21st percentile of the past five years [5]. - The industry remains bullish on tin prices and valuation expansion, recommending a focus on companies like Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ) that have strong resource endowments and growth potential [5].

Core Insights - The PCB industry is entering a new upcycle characterized by high-end product demand, factory establishment in Southeast Asia, and increased equipment upgrade needs driven by AI technology [1][3][4] Group 1: Industry Trends - The global PCB industry is expected to recover in 2024, with a projected market value of $73.565 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [3] - High-end products such as HDI and multilayer boards are anticipated to see significant demand growth, particularly driven by AI applications in sectors like telecommunications and automotive [4] - Southeast Asia is becoming a key beneficiary of the PCB industry's shift, with over 25% of the top 100 global PCB suppliers likely to establish production bases in Vietnam or Thailand by 2025 [4] Group 2: Company Developments - Jingwang Electronics plans to invest RMB 5 billion in expanding its Zhuhai Jinwan base to enhance production capacity for high-end HDI and SLP products [2] - Pengding Holdings has approved an investment of RMB 8 billion for the construction of a new industrial park in Huai'an, focusing on SLP and high-end HDI products [2] Group 3: Equipment Demand - The demand for PCB equipment is expected to surge due to the need for upgrades in drilling, exposure, electroplating, and testing processes, which are critical for improving circuit board performance [5] - AI advancements are raising the bar for PCB manufacturing processes, necessitating more sophisticated techniques in drilling and exposure to meet the requirements of high-density interconnections [5] Group 4: Key Players in Equipment - Major companies involved in the drilling segment include Dazhu CNC, Dingtai High-Tech, and Zhongtung High-Tech [6] - Key players in the exposure segment are Xinqi Micro-Assembly and Tianzhun Technology, while Dongwei Technology is notable in the electroplating segment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The market is highly focused on the development of Shennan Circuit, a leading company in the PCB industry, as evidenced by over a hundred institutions conducting on-site research [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q1 2023, Shennan Circuit achieved revenue of approximately 48 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 5 billion yuan, both showing over 20% year-on-year growth [1][2] - The company's revenue for the first three months was 47.83 billion yuan, a 20.75% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 4.91 billion yuan, up 29.47% year-on-year [2] - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to increased demand in high-speed network communication, computing power, and the automotive electronics sector [2] Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - Shennan Circuit's PCB business focuses on communication devices, data centers, and automotive electronics, with a notable increase in orders from the wireless communication sector [2] - The company has a diverse range of packaging substrate products, which have seen improved demand, particularly in storage products [3] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence with a factory in Thailand, investing approximately 12.74 billion yuan to enhance global supply capabilities [1][7] Group 3: Financial Health and Expansion - As of the end of 2024, Shennan Circuit's total assets increased from 207.27 billion yuan in 2022 to 253.02 billion yuan [7] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with a debt ratio of 42.14% and cash reserves of 17.08 billion yuan as of March 2023 [7] - Shennan Circuit has a history of steady dividends, proposing a cash dividend of 7.69 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 40.97% [8][9] Group 4: Industry Position - According to Prismark, Shennan Circuit is expected to rank fourth among global PCB manufacturers in 2024, an improvement of four positions from 2023 [6] - The company has demonstrated resilience in the PCB industry, achieving continuous revenue and profit growth since 2016, except for a decline in 2023 due to market fluctuations [3][4]

Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.91 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 20.75% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.47 billion RMB, up 29.47% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 0.48 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 44.64% [1] Group 2: PCB Business Development - The PCB business focuses on communication equipment, particularly in data centers and automotive electronics, with a slight recovery in wireless orders and continued growth in wired demand [2] - Orders in the data center sector continued to grow, driven by demand for AI accelerator cards and servers [2] - The automotive electronics sector is experiencing stable growth, particularly in new energy and ADAS directions [2] Group 3: Packaging Substrate Business - The company offers a wide range of packaging substrate products, including module packaging substrates and storage packaging substrates, primarily used in mobile smart terminals and servers [3] - Demand for packaging substrates improved in Q1 2025, mainly due to increased demand for storage products [3] Group 4: Production Capacity and Utilization - The overall production capacity utilization remains high, particularly in the PCB business due to sustained demand in computing power and automotive electronics [4] - The packaging substrate business has seen an increase in capacity utilization compared to Q4 2024 due to improved demand in the storage sector [4] Group 5: Impact of U.S. Sales and Tariff Policies - Direct sales to the U.S. accounted for a low proportion of total revenue, indicating limited impact from U.S. tariff policies [5] - The company is closely monitoring the evolving international trade environment and maintaining communication with industry stakeholders [5] Group 6: HDI Process Capability - The company possesses HDI process capabilities, applicable in communication, data centers, industrial control, medical, and automotive electronics sectors [6] Group 7: FC-BGA Packaging Substrate Development - The company has achieved batch production capability for FC-BGA packaging substrates with up to 20 layers, with ongoing development for products exceeding 20 layers [7] - The Guangzhou packaging substrate project is in the early stages of ramping up production, with some cost impacts on profits [7] Group 8: Expansion Plans - The PCB business is expanding with factories in Shenzhen, Wuxi, Nantong, and a project in Thailand, focusing on technology upgrades and capacity enhancement [8] - The Nantong Phase IV project is under construction to establish an HDI technology platform [8] Group 9: Thailand Factory Investment - The total investment for the Thailand factory is 1.274 billion RMB, aimed at enhancing overseas market reach and meeting international customer demands [9] Group 10: Raw Material Price Changes - Key raw materials have seen price increases in Q1 2025 due to commodity price fluctuations, impacting costs [10] - The company is actively monitoring raw material prices and maintaining communication with suppliers and customers [10]