Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.04 to $66.29 per barrel, a decline of 1.54%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell 91 cents to $68.76 per barrel, a decline of 1.31%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.28% at 510 yuan per barrel [1] - Eight OPEC + member countries reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking the organization's completion of the current - stage supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule and full withdrawal from the 2.2 million barrels - per - day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December [1] - The Russian Federal Foreign Intelligence Service reported that the British intelligence agency plans to create an ecological disaster in international waters and blame Russia for threatening international navigation safety. The UK plans to instruct Ukrainian armed personnel to carry out "terrorist actions" at sea and pressure the Trump administration to impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy [1] - US President Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to the "provocative" remarks of Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev [1] - After the new round of US sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally bound for Indian refineries have changed their routes. Trump also threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Due to the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariffs, India is avoiding purchasing some Russian crude oil. However, India imports 2 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day, accounting for 45% of its total crude oil imports, and there are no other willing buyers under the threat of secondary tariffs, so India has limited room to maneuver, and the recent oil price reaction has been negative [2] Group 3: Strategy - The oil price will fluctuate in the short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and oversupply expectations, provided that geopolitical situations remain controllable [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced significant price fluctuations in the first half of the year, influenced by geopolitical risks such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, U.S. tariff policies, and increased production from OPEC+ [1]. - Brent crude oil futures fluctuated from a high of $83 per barrel in January to a low of approximately $58 per barrel in April, with a volatility range of $25 per barrel [1]. - In June, escalating Middle Eastern conflicts led to a rebound in oil prices, with WTI prices surging over $10 per barrel, reaching a peak of $78 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The increase in global oil supply is primarily driven by OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, with OPEC+ accelerating production to capture market share [2]. - OPEC+ announced an unexpected production increase of 410,000 barrels per day on April 3, contributing to a significant drop in oil prices [2]. - The U.S. and other non-OPEC countries are expected to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day this year, which aligns with the global demand increase forecasted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks have caused rapid fluctuations in oil prices, with U.S. sanctions on Russia and tensions with Iran impacting market expectations [3]. - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant price increase, with WTI and Brent prices rising over 13% in a single day [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain weak in the second half of the year, influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and tariff risks [5]. - The cumulative production increase from OPEC+ from April to August is projected to reach 1.918 million barrels per day, potentially leading to oversupply and price declines [5]. - WTI prices are expected to fluctuate between $58 and $72 per barrel, with a mainstream range of $55 to $65 per barrel anticipated for the second half of the year [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "oscillation", and the rating for cotton is also "oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and plant number being shorter and fewer compared to the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention and control. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, with more high - temperature days than the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Data - **External Quotes**: From July 13th to July 14th, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.56 dollars to 16.31 dollars, a decline of 1.51%, while the price of US cotton increased from 67.42 dollars to 68.11 dollars, an increase of 1.02% [3] - **Spot Prices**: From July 11th to July 14th, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.19%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15200.0 to 15250.0, an increase of 0.33% [3] - **Spreads**: For sugar, SR01 - 05 increased by 5.56%, SR05 - 09 remained unchanged, and SR09 - 01 decreased by 1.66%. For cotton, CF01 - 05 increased by 25.00%, CF05 - 09 remained unchanged, and CF09 - 01 decreased by 7.69% [3] - **Basis**: The basis of sugar decreased, with sugar 01 basis decreasing by 3.62%, sugar 05 basis decreasing by 2.12%, and sugar 09 basis decreasing by 7.37%. The basis of cotton increased, with cotton 01 basis increasing by 2.35%, cotton 05 basis increasing by 2.66%, and cotton 09 basis increasing by 2.82% [3] Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from July 11th to July 14th, 2025 [3] - **Profit Space**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1655.5 from July 11th to July 14th, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0733, and its futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 7.52. The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0726. The implied volatility of CF509C13800 is 0.0963, and its futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 8.35. The implied volatility of CF509P13800 is 0.0987 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From July 11th to July 14th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 22744.0 to 22716.0, a decrease of 0.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9850.0 to 9807.0, a decrease of 0.44% [3] Company Information - Report research's company is CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19th - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It has multiple memberships in various futures exchanges and associations [2][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the China-US negotiation joint statement, short - term bullish factors have landed, and the market is still in an emotional state. Although 50% of the tariffs on China are still high, it has restarted a new trade situation. Most risk assets have basically returned to the level before April 2, 2025. Recently, there have been supply - side disturbances in many varieties, and bulls are likely to push up prices. After the emotional release, the fundamental logic should be re - examined [1]. - In the medium term, the rebound of crude oil is much weaker than other risk assets, mainly due to the increasing expectation of supply surplus under the continuous acceleration of OPEC+ production increase. Short - term non - supply - demand logics are regarded as phased rises rather than reversals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities near the previous high (WTI main contract at $64). For oil - chemical varieties, wait for the right - side short - selling opportunities after short - term breakouts [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It is testing the medium - term pressure level corresponding to $63 of WTI today. If it fails to break through the medium - term pressure, it will retest the support at 468 [2]. - **Strategy**: In the hourly cycle, after the previous short - position index, look for a new position - increasing and reverse - wrapping pattern, or wait for the price to break below the low on May 13 and then look for a right - side rebound short - selling opportunity. If the short - position is stopped out, wait for a new position - increasing and reverse - wrapping signal [2][3]. Styrene (EB) - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with a reduction in positions today, and the short - term trading volume is insufficient, so the upside space is limited. The short - term support is the low on May 13 [9]. - **Strategy**: Still on the sidelines [3][9]. PX - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. Some funds left the market with a reduction in positions at the end of the session today. The short - term support refers to the low on May 13 [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [3][10]. PTA - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with an increase in positions today. The short - term support refers to the low on May 13 [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. Currently on the sidelines [3][16]. PP - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with a reduction in positions today. The new short - term support is at 7130 [18]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines, wait for short - term breakouts [3][18]. Urea - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It oscillated within the day today, retested the short - term support at the low on May 8, but there was no trading volume to match the pattern [19][22]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3][22]. Methanol - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. After rising with an increase in positions today, it showed a short - term trend reversal, and the short - term slope is too large. The support is temporarily at 2330 [23]. - **Strategy**: On the sidelines in the hourly cycle [3][23]. Rubber - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term oscillating structure. It rose with an increase in positions today and reached the upper edge of the oscillation range again. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8. It is currently in a narrow - range oscillation for oversold repair [26]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3][26]. Caustic Soda - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. After oscillating within the day today, there was a large - scale reduction in positions and an upward movement at the end of the session, indicating that some short - sellers left the market [27]. - **Strategy**: Mainly on the sidelines [3][27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It rose with an increase in positions today. The short - term support is at 43150 [29]. - **Strategy**: On the sidelines due to the divergence between medium - and short - term trends [3][29]. Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It is regarded as a continued rebound today. The short - term support is at 7100 [30]. - **Strategy**: In the hourly cycle, on the sidelines [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - After the Sino-US economic and trade negotiation, the short - term upward drive in sentiment may come to an end. The current 50% tariff on China is still relatively high, and the bullish trading has been quite sufficient. The short - term bullish factors for crude oil are exhausted, and without the Iranian geopolitical risk, the stage - rise of crude oil is expected to end. For oil - chemical products, maintain a medium - term bearish view and wait for short - selling opportunities after short - term breakouts [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it rose with a reduction in positions, and the volume did not match, so it is not considered a reversal. Look for reversal patterns that do not exceed the medium - term pressure level of 500 to try secondary entry of medium - term short positions [4][5] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Today, it increased positions and had a long - Yang line, breaking through the short - term pressure on April 29. The pre - holiday short positions should be stopped for profit and then wait and see [5][6] PX - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose. Pay attention to the low point on the night of May 9 as the short - term support. Wait for the breakdown of the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [5][10] PTA - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose. Pay attention to the low point on the night of May 9 as the short - term support. Wait for the breakdown of the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [5][13] PP - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bearish. The hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. Today's decline in positions and rebound is not considered a trend reversal. It is relatively weaker than PX and PTA. The remaining pre - holiday short positions can still be held, and the stop - profit is still referenced at the 7060 level [5][17] Urea - Medium - term structure is oscillating, short - term structure is bullish. The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Technically, it oscillated within the day today, and the short - term support below is referenced at the low point on May 8. Look for opportunities to go long on dips without breaking the support [5][18] Methanol - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is oscillating. The hourly - level has a downward structure. Today, it declined in positions and rose above the short - term pressure level of 2250, and the short - term trend is considered reversed. Stop the loss of short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][21] Rubber - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is oscillating. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term oscillating structure. Today, it increased positions and rose but did not break through the upper edge of the oscillating range. The upper pressure is still referenced at the high point on April 8. In the near term, it is doing an oversold repair through narrow - range oscillation by trading time for space. The general strategy is to short on rallies, but there is no short - term opportunity [5][22][25] Caustic Soda - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose, and there was an opportunity to enter long positions in the form of a reversal pattern within the day, but the strategy has not prompted recently, so still mainly wait and see [5][27] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. Today, it increased positions and rose above the short - term pressure level of 4250, and the short - term trend is considered reversed. Stop the profit and loss of previous short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][31] Plastic - Medium - term structure is bearish, short - term structure is bullish. The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level's short - term downward structure has ended. Today, it declined in positions and rose above the high - point pressure level on April 30, and the short - term decline may end. Stop the profit of short positions as planned and then wait and see [5][32]