基本面方面，临近春节，沪锌下游消费表现低迷。国内部分锌矿因冬季停产，近期华中、华北、西南地 区均有锌矿进入检修，国内锌矿供应依旧偏紧，锌精矿加工费承压，对精炼锌产出形成制约。上期所库 存数据显示，截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，周度锌锭库存为 6.52 万吨，较 1 月 23 日下降 7997 吨，反映出 锌市消费仍具韧性。不过，本周下游镀锌行业开工率明显下滑，部分厂家已进入放假状态。 综合分析，锌价供需基本面变化不大，盘面走势主要受资金情绪推动，沪锌资金拥挤度较高，短期有调 整需求。年内供应过剩预期未变，结构性矛盾虽推升价格，但可等待高位调整充分后寻找空配机会。今 日现货锌价或大幅下跌。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 【ccmn.cn摘要】股油联动暴挫重挫市场风险偏好，隔周伦锌大跌 2.4%；贵金属暴跌引有色跟跌，沪锌 下游消费低迷，盘中回吐近期涨幅，今现锌或大跌。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔周伦锌高位回落，盘整震荡走软回吐涨幅，开盘报3420美元/吨，高点报 3423.5美元，低点报3336.5美元，尾盘收于3370美 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 30 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | | | SC：元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The US plans to "sell on consignment" Venezuelan crude oil, intensifying the market's expectation of supply surplus in early 2026. Ukraine's negotiation progress may end the conflict with Russia in the first half of 2026, causing a short - term sharp drop in oil prices. However, the situation in Iran remains tense [1]. - PX supply is expected to increase due to the high PXN, more overseas restart plans, and potential imports from arbitrage. There are many PX maintenance plans in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is positive, but there are risks of increased supply and declining polyester demand [1]. - PTA's near - term devices are returning. The PTA balance sheet will see inventory reduction in December and moderate inventory accumulation in January. In the long - term, PTA processing fees are expected to improve [2]. - Polyester's operating rate is 90.8% (up 0.4% month - on - month). Weaving load is declining, and there is a possibility of a sharp drop in downstream operating rates in January [2]. - PF's production profit is - 4 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan/ton month - on - month). Due to weak downstream demand, inventory is increasing [3]. - PR's spot processing fee is 458 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton month - on - month). The short - term processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][22] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [36][38][39] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate, filament profit, 1.4D physical inventory, and 1.4D equity inventory [46][48][56] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [74][79][81] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][89][96]

Core Insights - The current spot price of white sugar in Guangxi is 5491 CNY/ton, down by 14 CNY/ton, with various sugar groups adjusting their prices slightly downwards [1] - The futures market shows a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 5499 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.40% rise [1] Price Overview - Guangxi sugar group prices range from 5660 to 5730 CNY/ton, down by 10 CNY/ton [1] - Yunnan sugar group prices are between 5580 and 5630 CNY/ton, also down by 10 CNY/ton [1] - The mainstream processing sugar price range is 5790 to 5910 CNY/ton, with minor adjustments [1] Market Supply and Demand - The 2025/2026 sugar season is expected to start in mid to late November, with an estimated 535,000 tons of sugarcane to be processed, a 10,000-ton increase from the previous season [2] - The cost of imported sugar from Brazil is significantly lower than domestic prices, with in-quota sugar costing 3990 CNY/ton, which is 1770 CNY/ton less than Guangxi sugar [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, supply surplus expectations from Brazil and India are putting pressure on sugar prices, while the reversal of sugar-alcohol price differentials may limit the decline [3] - Domestically, lower import costs dominate the market, but a decrease in import volumes and tightening policies are releasing some pressure, leading to a short-term oscillating market trend [3]

Report Summary - The report is an oil weekly report from AVIC Futures dated September 19, 2025, focusing on market analysis and trading strategies [2][8] - This week, oil prices first rose then fell, showing a narrow - range oscillation. The trading logic lies in the game between the "strong reality, weak expectation" fundamentals and geopolitics [8] - The report suggests paying attention to the WTI crude oil price range of $61 - 66 per barrel [8][47] Market Focus and Key Data Market Focus - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, starting the first rate cut this year. There is still room for further cuts this year [7][12] - China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on properly resolving the TikTok issue [7] - Russia - Ukraine negotiations paused, escalating geopolitical tensions [7][13] Key Data - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 9.285 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels, with the previous value at 3.939 million barrels [7][37] - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 0.296 million barrels, with the previous value at - 0.365 million barrels [7][43] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending September 12 was 0.504 million barrels, with the previous value at 0.514 million barrels [7][37] Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - Geopolitical disturbances [11] - Shale oil cost support [11] Bearish Factors - Fading expectation of the consumption peak season [11] - Accelerated implementation of OPEC+ production increase [11] Macro Analysis Fed Interest Rate Cut - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 18, the first rate cut in 2025. It is expected to cut rates two more times this year [12] Geopolitical Tensions - Russia - Ukraine negotiations paused, and the US and Europe threatened to impose tariffs on Russian oil buyers, but geopolitical disturbances are complex and uncertain, hard to provide clear direction [13] Data Analysis Supply - Side Data - US domestic crude oil production for the week ending September 12 decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day, but overall supply pressure increased [14] - The total number of US oil rigs as of September 12 was 416, an increase of 2 from the previous period, ending the downward trend since April, but expected to remain low [16] Demand - Side Data - US crude oil implied demand for the week ending September 12 was 20.5 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 1.297 million barrels per day [20] - US gasoline production implied demand for the week ending September 12 was 9.7823 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 0.2806 million barrels per day [20] - US refinery utilization rate as of September 12 was 93.3%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous period [22] - As of September 18, the operating rate of China's major refineries was 81.52%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points, while that of independent refineries was 62.3%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points [28] - As of September 12, the comprehensive refining profit of China's major refineries was 867.05 yuan per ton, an increase of 205.19 yuan per ton, and that of independent refineries was 278.22 yuan per ton, an increase of 90.11 yuan per ton [32] Inventory Data - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 9.285 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory continued to accumulate [37] - US Cushing crude oil inventory for the week ending September 12 decreased by 0.296 million barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels [43] Crack Spread Data - As of September 16, the US crude oil crack spread was $20.49 per barrel, showing a slight week - on - week increase, indicating some resilience in US refined oil consumption [44] Outlook - After the Fed's rate - cut expectation materialized, market risk appetite declined, and oil prices were under pressure. The core market contradiction is the game between fundamentals and geopolitics [47] - OPEC+ production increase and the end of the demand peak season strengthen the expectation of supply surplus, while geopolitical conflicts provide intermittent support. Oil prices are expected to continue wide - range oscillation [47]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - LPG prices dropped in night trading due to expectations of oversupply, while propylene supply and demand were tight, leading to higher spot transactions [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. LPG and Propylene Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,470 with a daily increase of 0.18% and 4,446 at night with a -0.54% decrease; PG2511 closed at 4,424 daily (+0.23%) and 4,405 at night (-0.43%); PL2601 closed at 6,409 daily (+0.02%) and 6,392 at night (-0.27%); PL2602 closed at 6,442 daily (-0.17%) and 6,425 at night (-0.26%) [2] - **Position and Trading Volume**: PG2510 trading volume was 58,811, down 33,266 from the previous day, and the position was 67,360, down 1,755; PG2511 trading volume was 23,568, down 9,364, and the position was 48,770, up 3,459; PL2601 trading volume was 3,245, up 444, and the position was 10,779, up 450; PL2602 trading volume was 53, up 35, and the position was 886, down 1 [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was 30 (previous day: 38); between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 60 (previous day: 88); between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 291 (previous day: 267); between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 191 (previous day: 192); between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 66 (previous day: 67) [2] - **Important Industrial Chain Data**: PDH operating rate was 70.5% (previous week: 73.1%); MTBE operating rate was 61.7% (previous week: 62.2%); alkylation operating rate was 45.7% (previous week: 46.8%) [2] 2. Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity was 0; propylene trend intensity was 0, with the range of [-2, 2] and classifications of weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong [-2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish] [6] 3. Market News - On September 11, 2025, the October CP paper cargo for propane was $549/ton, down $1/ton from the previous trading day; butane was $524/ton, up $1/ton. The November CP paper cargo for propane was $559/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7] - There were domestic PDH device maintenance plans (from Longzhong Information on September 4) and domestic liquefied gas plant device maintenance plans (from Longzhong Information on September 11), listing multiple companies' maintenance time, capacity, etc. [7][8][9]

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.04 to $66.29 per barrel, a decline of 1.54%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London fell 91 cents to $68.76 per barrel, a decline of 1.31%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.28% at 510 yuan per barrel [1] - Eight OPEC + member countries reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking the organization's completion of the current - stage supply recovery plan one year ahead of schedule and full withdrawal from the 2.2 million barrels - per - day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December [1] - The Russian Federal Foreign Intelligence Service reported that the British intelligence agency plans to create an ecological disaster in international waters and blame Russia for threatening international navigation safety. The UK plans to instruct Ukrainian armed personnel to carry out "terrorist actions" at sea and pressure the Trump administration to impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy [1] - US President Trump ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in response to the "provocative" remarks of Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev [1] - After the new round of US sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally bound for Indian refineries have changed their routes. Trump also threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries buying Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Due to the uncertainty brought by Trump's tariffs, India is avoiding purchasing some Russian crude oil. However, India imports 2 million barrels of Russian crude oil per day, accounting for 45% of its total crude oil imports, and there are no other willing buyers under the threat of secondary tariffs, so India has limited room to maneuver, and the recent oil price reaction has been negative [2] Group 3: Strategy - The oil price will fluctuate in the short - term range and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [4]

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are expected to face downward pressure in the second half of the year due to weak demand and oversupply expectations, provided that geopolitical situations remain controllable [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced significant price fluctuations in the first half of the year, influenced by geopolitical risks such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, U.S. tariff policies, and increased production from OPEC+ [1]. - Brent crude oil futures fluctuated from a high of $83 per barrel in January to a low of approximately $58 per barrel in April, with a volatility range of $25 per barrel [1]. - In June, escalating Middle Eastern conflicts led to a rebound in oil prices, with WTI prices surging over $10 per barrel, reaching a peak of $78 per barrel [1]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The increase in global oil supply is primarily driven by OPEC+ and non-OPEC countries, with OPEC+ accelerating production to capture market share [2]. - OPEC+ announced an unexpected production increase of 410,000 barrels per day on April 3, contributing to a significant drop in oil prices [2]. - The U.S. and other non-OPEC countries are expected to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day this year, which aligns with the global demand increase forecasted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - Geopolitical risks have caused rapid fluctuations in oil prices, with U.S. sanctions on Russia and tensions with Iran impacting market expectations [3]. - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East led to a significant price increase, with WTI and Brent prices rising over 13% in a single day [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that oil prices will remain weak in the second half of the year, influenced by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and tariff risks [5]. - The cumulative production increase from OPEC+ from April to August is projected to reach 1.918 million barrels per day, potentially leading to oversupply and price declines [5]. - WTI prices are expected to fluctuate between $58 and $72 per barrel, with a mainstream range of $55 to $65 per barrel anticipated for the second half of the year [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "oscillation", and the rating for cotton is also "oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and plant number being shorter and fewer compared to the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall in the Inner Mongolia production area recently, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention and control. Internationally, attention should continue to be paid to the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1] - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days earlier than in previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will continue to be high in July, with more high - temperature days than the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1] Data Summary Price and Spread Data - **External Quotes**: From July 13th to July 14th, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased from 16.56 dollars to 16.31 dollars, a decline of 1.51%, while the price of US cotton increased from 67.42 dollars to 68.11 dollars, an increase of 1.02% [3] - **Spot Prices**: From July 11th to July 14th, 2025, the spot prices of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased slightly by 0.19%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased from 15200.0 to 15250.0, an increase of 0.33% [3] - **Spreads**: For sugar, SR01 - 05 increased by 5.56%, SR05 - 09 remained unchanged, and SR09 - 01 decreased by 1.66%. For cotton, CF01 - 05 increased by 25.00%, CF05 - 09 remained unchanged, and CF09 - 01 decreased by 7.69% [3] - **Basis**: The basis of sugar decreased, with sugar 01 basis decreasing by 3.62%, sugar 05 basis decreasing by 2.12%, and sugar 09 basis decreasing by 7.37%. The basis of cotton increased, with cotton 01 basis increasing by 2.35%, cotton 05 basis increasing by 2.66%, and cotton 09 basis increasing by 2.82% [3] Other Data - **Import Price**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged from July 11th to July 14th, 2025 [3] - **Profit Space**: The import profit of sugar remained unchanged at 1655.5 from July 11th to July 14th, 2025 [3] - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR509C5800 is 0.0733, and its futures underlying is SR509 with a historical volatility of 7.52. The implied volatility of SR509P5800 is 0.0726. The implied volatility of CF509C13800 is 0.0963, and its futures underlying is CF509 with a historical volatility of 8.35. The implied volatility of CF509P13800 is 0.0987 [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: From July 11th to July 14th, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 22744.0 to 22716.0, a decrease of 0.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 9850.0 to 9807.0, a decrease of 0.44% [3] Company Information - Report research's company is CINDA Futures Co., Ltd., located at the 19th - 20th floors of Tianren Building, Qianjiang Century City, Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou, with a postal code of 311200. It is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business, wholly - owned by CINDA Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It has multiple memberships in various futures exchanges and associations [2][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the China-US negotiation joint statement, short - term bullish factors have landed, and the market is still in an emotional state. Although 50% of the tariffs on China are still high, it has restarted a new trade situation. Most risk assets have basically returned to the level before April 2, 2025. Recently, there have been supply - side disturbances in many varieties, and bulls are likely to push up prices. After the emotional release, the fundamental logic should be re - examined [1]. - In the medium term, the rebound of crude oil is much weaker than other risk assets, mainly due to the increasing expectation of supply surplus under the continuous acceleration of OPEC+ production increase. Short - term non - supply - demand logics are regarded as phased rises rather than reversals. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities near the previous high (WTI main contract at $64). For oil - chemical varieties, wait for the right - side short - selling opportunities after short - term breakouts [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It is testing the medium - term pressure level corresponding to $63 of WTI today. If it fails to break through the medium - term pressure, it will retest the support at 468 [2]. - **Strategy**: In the hourly cycle, after the previous short - position index, look for a new position - increasing and reverse - wrapping pattern, or wait for the price to break below the low on May 13 and then look for a right - side rebound short - selling opportunity. If the short - position is stopped out, wait for a new position - increasing and reverse - wrapping signal [2][3]. Styrene (EB) - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with a reduction in positions today, and the short - term trading volume is insufficient, so the upside space is limited. The short - term support is the low on May 13 [9]. - **Strategy**: Still on the sidelines [3][9]. PX - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. Some funds left the market with a reduction in positions at the end of the session today. The short - term support refers to the low on May 13 [10]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [3][10]. PTA - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with an increase in positions today. The short - term support refers to the low on May 13 [16]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the price to break the support and then look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. Currently on the sidelines [3][16]. PP - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It rose with a reduction in positions today. The new short - term support is at 7130 [18]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines, wait for short - term breakouts [3][18]. Urea - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. It oscillated within the day today, retested the short - term support at the low on May 8, but there was no trading volume to match the pattern [19][22]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3][22]. Methanol - **Technical Analysis**: On the hourly level, it has a short - term upward structure. After rising with an increase in positions today, it showed a short - term trend reversal, and the short - term slope is too large. The support is temporarily at 2330 [23]. - **Strategy**: On the sidelines in the hourly cycle [3][23]. Rubber - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term oscillating structure. It rose with an increase in positions today and reached the upper edge of the oscillation range again. The upper pressure still refers to the high on April 8. It is currently in a narrow - range oscillation for oversold repair [26]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily on the sidelines [3][26]. Caustic Soda - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. After oscillating within the day today, there was a large - scale reduction in positions and an upward movement at the end of the session, indicating that some short - sellers left the market [27]. - **Strategy**: Mainly on the sidelines [3][27]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It rose with an increase in positions today. The short - term support is at 43150 [29]. - **Strategy**: On the sidelines due to the divergence between medium - and short - term trends [3][29]. Plastic - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily level, it has a medium - term downward structure, and on the hourly level, a short - term upward structure. It is regarded as a continued rebound today. The short - term support is at 7100 [30]. - **Strategy**: In the hourly cycle, on the sidelines [30]