交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-02-27 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2800至2860区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收跌，中美贸易谈判尚在进行和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期偏强震荡等 待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕冲高回落，美 豆走势带动和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多空交织短期或维持区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3050（华东），基差216，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存94.72万吨，上周104.4万吨，环比减少9.27%，去年同期55.67万吨， 同比增加70.15%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1 Bean Meal - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with the basis being positive, inventory increasing, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions decreasing and funds flowing out. In the short - term, it may show a weak oscillation pattern due to factors like the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases from the US and the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans [9]. 2.2 Soybean - Soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4100 - 4200. The market is neutral, with a negative basis, increasing inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions increasing and funds flowing out. The domestic soybean price is affected by the execution of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The domestic arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level. The reduction of domestic pig - farming profits led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for bean meal in November [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November remained relatively high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Transaction Data - From December 2 to December 10, the trading volume of bean meal fluctuated, and the price also showed slight fluctuations. During this period, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was mostly 0, and only on December 10, 0.6 tons were traded. The average price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17]. 3.4.2 Price Data - From December 3 to December 10, the prices of soybean futures and bean meal futures fluctuated. The prices of soybean and bean meal spot were relatively stable, with bean meal futures oscillating downward and the spot discount narrowing slightly [19][24]. 3.4.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - From December 1 to December 10, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and bean meal had different degrees of changes. For example, the bean - 1 warehouse receipts increased from 15,645 to 16,664, and the bean - 2 warehouse receipts changed from 4900 to 7100. The bean - meal warehouse receipts increased from 9450 to 23,830 and then remained stable [21]. 3.4.4 Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans all showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. - **Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans all changed to varying degrees, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 3.4.5 Sowing and Harvesting Progress - **2023/24 Argentina**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2023/24 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. Generally, the sowing progress was slightly faster than the same period last year but slightly slower than the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [35]. - **2024 US**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024 were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall sowing and growth progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [36][37][39]. - **2024/25 Brazil**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting and harvesting progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average [40][41]. - **2024/25 Argentina**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting progress was slightly faster than the same period last year and close to the five - year average [42]. - **2025 US**: The harvesting progress of soybeans on September 21 was 9% [43]. - **2025/26 Brazil**: As of November 29, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 86%, compared with 90% in the same period last year and 84.4% of the five - year average [44]. - **2025/26 Argentina**: As of November 26, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 36%, compared with 37% in the same period last year and 45% of the five - year average [45]. 3.4.6 USDA Supply - Demand Report - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean export, and crushing volume of US soybeans changed to varying degrees. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans in November was 1.75 billion tons, and that of Argentine soybeans was 0.485 billion tons [46]. 3.4.7 Other Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year as a whole. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the bean - meal inventory returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fell to a low level, and the stocking demand decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the bean - meal output in September increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans oscillated and rebounded following the US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [47][49][50]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic performance. Although the easing of Sino - US trade relations boosts the US soybean futures price to a 16 - month high and raises domestic import costs, the soybean meal futures price lacks the impetus to follow the increase. With some short - term funds taking profits and leaving the market, the soybean meal futures price turns into wide - range fluctuations. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is at the highest level in 7 years, and the continuous losses in the breeding sector lead to weak demand, putting pressure on the spot price and keeping the soybean meal basis negative. Short - term sentiment and cost - driven market face industrial chain pressure, and there is a risk of high - level correction [5] - The palm oil performs the weakest in the oil market, with the market expecting the Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of October to climb to a two - year high of 2.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 30%, which exerts pressure on Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, although the weekly inventory of the three major edible oils has decreased slightly, the total inventory remains at a relatively high level, indicating that the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Currently, the market is dominated by pessimistic sentiment, and the pattern of strong meal and weak oil continues. The palm oil futures price will remain weak in the short term [7] 3. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: The short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is also "oscillation with a weak bias" [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The soybean market has an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The rise in US soybean prices due to Sino - US trade relations and import costs fails to drive up domestic soybean meal prices effectively. High inventory, weak demand from the breeding sector, and negative basis all contribute to the weak performance. There is a risk of high - level correction [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: The short - term view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", and the reference view is "oscillation with a weak bias" [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The palm oil is the weakest in the oil market. High expected Malaysian inventory and relatively high domestic inventory, along with a pessimistic market sentiment and a strong - meal - weak - oil pattern, lead to its weak short - term performance [7]