IEA修正油市供需预测，但仍警告供应过剩将创历史新高。尽管如此，在制裁措施与炼油系统紧张的影响下，油价走势仍背离基本面逻辑。 随着欧佩克+（其产量约占全球原油产量的一半）近期同意明年一季度暂停增产，目前IEA预计该联盟今明两年将分别增加130万桶/日的供应，而联盟外的 产油国同期预计将分别增加170万桶/日和120万桶/日的供应。 另一方面，受宏观经济前景改善和贸易紧张局势缓解影响，今明两年的全球原油需求增长预期被上调——从先前的日均78.8万桶和77万桶，上调至日均83万 桶和86万桶。油价下跌和美元走弱也将为需求提供支撑。 IEA上月还缓和了对原油需求即将见顶的立场，该机构在其《世界能源展望》年度报告中恢复了一种情景预测：全球石油消费将持续增长至2050年。 这份周四发布的报告出炉之际，布伦特原油交易价格略低于62美元/桶，WTI原油约为58美元/桶。投资者正持续密切关注结束俄乌冲突的外交努力，以及美 国与委内瑞拉之间不断升级的紧张关系。 这家代表主要石油消费国的巴黎机构下调了今年和明年的全球原油供应增长预期，分别从先前的日均310万桶和250万桶下调至日均300万桶和240万桶。 上月，全球原油供应较9 ...

与此同时，产油国年内增产对油市的影响还受到两方面因素的制约：其一，部分产油国本身产能不足， 实际产量难以匹配目标产量。其二，部分产油国还有补偿减产动作。由于在之前的减产阶段，部分主要 产油国实际产量明显高于目标产量，因此在当前的增产阶段，相关产油国增产同时伴随着另一部分产油 国的补偿减产。根据11月2日欧佩克发布相关产油国未来补偿减产计划表来看，2025年10月-2026年6 月，产油国合计月度补偿减产量在18.5万桶／日至82.2万桶／日不等。这导致产油国计划增产的产量与 实际增产量存在差异，从而加大油市波动性。 综合来看，欧佩克+明年一季度暂停增产，未来政策仍存变数，一定程度上提振市场心态。不过，在全 球经济面临较大挑战、能源需求前景疲弱的大背景下，欧佩克+此前的增产动作加大供应端压力，叠加 美国与其它产油国的产量提升预期，全球油市供应过剩的预期将逐步转为现实。 此外，从宏观面来看，国际贸易争端适度降级利好市场心态，不过经济疲弱波及商品市场，油市将依然 承压。地缘方面，东欧局势、中东局势以及南美问题均存在较大的不确定性，地缘风险以及相关制裁引 发的供应担忧，仍是扰动油市最主要的风险性因素。 基于宏观压力、 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The IEA monthly report predicts that the oil market will face a significant surplus next year, and the supply - surplus situation will be more severe than previously expected. The market's pessimistic sentiment is aggravated, and there is no sign of a rebound in the short term [1][2] - The hardening of stances between China and the US before the summit and the resurgence of concerns about the trade war, along with the IEA's bearish view, have put pressure on the fundamentals [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's November - delivery light crude oil futures fell 79 cents to $58.70 per barrel, a 1.33% decline; December - delivery London Brent crude oil futures dropped 93 cents to $62.39 per barrel, a 1.47% decline. SC crude oil's main contract closed down 1.73% at 444 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports reached a 28 - month high in the past four weeks. As of October 12, the four - week average of crude oil exports from Russian ports was 3.74 million barrels per day, the highest since June 2023. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have increased, with at least 28 attacks since early August [1] - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil inventories are set to rise, and the supply - surplus situation in the oil market will be more severe. Global oil supply is expected to grow by 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year, higher than previous forecasts. Global oil demand is expected to grow by only 710,000 barrels per day this year and 699,000 barrels per day next year [1] - Kazakhstan produced 75.7 million barrels of oil from January to September [1] Investment Logic - The hardening of stances between China and the US before the summit and the IEA's bearish view on the oil market have led to a combination of macro and fundamental factors putting pressure on the fundamentals, with no short - term rebound drivers [2] Strategy - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The UAE Energy Minister expressed no concerns regarding oversupply in the oil market and noted that there has been no increase in oil product inventories [1] Group 1 - The UAE Energy Minister's confidence in the oil market suggests a stable outlook for oil prices [1] - Current observations indicate that oil inventories have not risen, which may imply balanced supply and demand dynamics [1]

期货热点追踪 OPEC+增产"乌云"蔽日，油市会否陷入供应过剩泥潭？WTI原油能否守住60关口？ 相关链接 ...

巴克莱：预计2025年油市将出现每日100万桶的供应过剩，2026年则将出现每日150万桶的供应过剩。 ...