Market Overview - A-shares fell on geopolitical tensions, with the coal sector leading gains, while the Hang Seng Index and European markets also declined[3][4] - Brent crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, contributing to inflation concerns[3][24] - The U.S. stock market experienced a three-day decline, with the S&P 500 down 1.5% and the Nasdaq down 1.8%[6][7] Fixed Income - U.S. Treasury bonds faced significant selling pressure, with the 2-year yield rising by 8.8 basis points to 3.74%[27] - Market expectations for a rate cut in 2026 have decreased from 45 basis points to about 20 basis points due to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions[27] Currency and Commodities - The U.S. dollar index rebounded, while non-U.S. currencies weakened, influenced by geopolitical risks and rising energy prices[4] - Gold prices fell by 1.88% to $5,079.21 per ounce, driven by a stronger dollar and rising oil prices[24] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, the energy sector rose by 3.1%, while real estate and healthcare sectors saw declines of 1.7% and 1.4%, respectively[10][9] - In the A-share market, the coal sector surged, with Zhengzhou Coal Power rising to its daily limit, while defense and technology sectors faced significant declines[14] Key Developments - Iran's new leadership vowed to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz, escalating geopolitical tensions in the region[4] - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed more than expected in January, indicating potential economic resilience[4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that despite geopolitical tensions causing oil prices to spike, strong oil supply is expected to lead to a surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day, predicting average prices for Brent and NYMEX crude to decline to $56 and $52 respectively this year [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical factors may continue to influence oil price volatility [1] - OECD member countries' crude oil inventories are increasing rapidly, while offshore oil inventory growth is slowing [1] - Brent and NYMEX crude prices are expected to drop to $54 and $50 respectively in the fourth quarter of this year [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows resilience with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, surpassing Bloomberg's median forecast of 135,000 [1] - The unemployment rate remains steady at 4.2%, while labor force participation rose to 62.6% [1] - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in Q1, which is weaker than economists' predictions, but the impact of tariffs has distorted data, leading to a significant increase in imports by 41% [2][3] Group 2 - The trade war has led companies to halt investment plans, potentially reducing new job opportunities and affecting consumer confidence [2] - The Trump administration's tariffs are expected to create inflationary pressures, making it crucial for bilateral negotiations to reach agreements quickly [2] - The Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in Q1, outperforming analyst expectations, but the trade war has negatively impacted business and consumer confidence in Europe [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with Chairman Powell likely to emphasize that the rate path depends on future economic conditions [4] - Market expectations indicate a low probability of rate cuts in May, with a greater chance of cuts in June and July [3][4] - The Fed is concerned about policy uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on prices, which may delay any rate adjustments until September [4]