1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the price of oils and fats is affected by geopolitical factors, with increased volatility and likely to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading. P59 and Y59 can consider opportunities for high - level reverse spreads, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot price and basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 8616, up 76; palm oil 2605 is 9796, up 104; rapeseed oil 2605 is 9854, up 74. The basis of each variety varies by region [2] - **Monthly spread closing price**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 86, down 2; palm oil is 90, up 6; rapeseed oil is 146, up 5 [2] - **Cross - variety spread**: The 05 contract of Y - P is - 1180, down 28; OI - Y is 1238; OI - P is 58, down 30; the oil - meal ratio is 2.83, up 0.02 [2] - **Import profit**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 96, and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is 1140, with a disk profit of - 1396 [2] - **Weekly commercial inventory of oils and fats**: In the 11th week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 88.6 tons, palm oil is 84.2 tons, and rapeseed oil is 28.2 tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International market**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects the palm oil price to remain above 4450 ringgit per ton in the near term. Higher crude oil prices may increase the attractiveness of palm oil as a biofuel substitute, but weak global economic growth and geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East may limit the upside [4] - **Domestic market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm oil**: Futures prices rose by more than 1%, inventory continued to increase, with a 3.68% increase week - on - week. The import profit was inverted, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and no - order investors are advised to wait and see, considering P59 high - level reverse spreads [4][5] - **Soybean oil**: Futures prices rose slightly. The soybean crushing volume increased, the inventory decreased by 1.66% week - on - week, and the basis was stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to maintain the reverse spread idea [5] - **Rapeseed oil**: Futures prices rose slightly. The inventory increased, the import profit inversion widened, and the basis is expected to weaken. Although there is support from low inventory and geopolitical factors, the increase may be suppressed in the future [6] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see due to high volatility [8] - **Arbitrage**: Consider high - level reverse spreads for P59 and Y59 [9] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] 3.4 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of the basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [13][14][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The release of the USDA report and the MPOB report, along with the impact of international crude oil prices, have caused the prices of the three major oils to fluctuate and decline, and the subsequent fluctuations have intensified. Attention should be paid to the development of the international situation [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,462.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -258 yuan and a range of -2.65% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,444.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -228.00 yuan and a range of -2.63% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,713.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -241.00 yuan and a range of -2.42% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,330.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -400.00 yuan and a range of -4.11%. The spot basis was P05 - 132.00, with a month-on-month change of -142.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,660.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -340.00 yuan/ton and a range of -3.78%. The spot basis was Y05 + 216.00, with a month-on-month change of -112.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,310.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of -240.00 yuan and a range of -2.27%. The spot basis was OI05 + 597.00, with a month-on-month change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market Information - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 615 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (July shipment) was 622 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1,151 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (June shipment) was 1,139 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (March shipment) was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (May shipment) was 1,080 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - According to the data of the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 10 was 622,445 tons, a 37.9% increase compared with the 451,340 tons exported in the same period last month - According to the Malaysian independent inspection agency AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 10 was 581,364 tons, a 45.34% increase compared with the 399,995 tons exported in the same period last month - The MPOB released the February Malaysian palm oil supply and demand report: Malaysia's palm oil production in February was 1,284,699 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.55%, lower than the market expectation of 1.3 million tons; exports were 1,127,605 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 22.48%, lower than the market expectation of 1.18 million tons; imports were 76,276 tons, a month-on-month increase of 136.03%; the inventory was 2,704,286 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.94%, higher than the market expectation of 2.63 million tons - The US Department of Agriculture lowered the expected soybean production in Argentina for the 2025/2026 season from the previous 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons, with the market expectation being 48.11 million tons; it maintained the expected soybean production in Brazil for the 2025/2026 season at 180 million tons, with the market expectation being 179.06 million tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the volatility of oils and fats may increase due to geopolitical factors, but overall, they will maintain a volatile trend. It is difficult to conduct unilateral trading, so it is recommended to wait and see. P59 and Y59 can consider reverse arbitrage at high prices, and it is recommended to wait and see for options [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 8260, up 34; palm oil 2605 is 8898, up 118; rapeseed oil 2605 is 9359, up 174. The basis of each variety in different regions has different changes [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 16, down 24; palm oil is - 22, down 8; rapeseed oil is 29, up 23 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 05 - contract Y - P spread is - 638, down 84; OI - Y is 1099, up 140; OI - P is 461, up 56; the oil - meal ratio is 2.92, up 0.02 [2] - **Import Profit**: The disk profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 103, and the CNF price is 1094; the disk profit of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1527, and the FOB price is 1085 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 9th week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 70.6 tons, palm oil is 78.7 tons, and rapeseed oil is 27.1 tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 19.20% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.03% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 19.35% month - on - month. The export volume is expected to decline by 21.5%, with an expected export volume of 1,149,063 tons. Indonesia has confiscated 5 million hectares of palm oil plantations and industrial forest concessions, of which 1.7 million hectares have been transferred to state - owned enterprise Agrinas Palma Nusantara [4] - **Domestic Market (P/Y/OI)**: - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the palm oil futures price rose by more than 1%. As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory was 78.67 tons, up 8.03 tons week - on - week. The origin quotation was stable, the disk import profit was inverted by about 100, and the basis was stable. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] - **Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price rose slightly. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 58.86 tons, with an actual operating rate of 16.19%. As of February 27, 2026, the commercial inventory was 91.33 tons, down 3.16 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 3.34%. The inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It is recommended to maintain the reverse arbitrage idea [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the rapeseed oil futures price rose by more than 1%. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 1.2 tons, with an operating rate of 3.20%. As of February 27, the rapeseed inventory was 15.1 tons, up 5.3 tons week - on - week. As of February 6, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 23.7 tons, down 0.5 tons, and the inventory is in the process of marginal destocking. The import profit is inverted by about - 1500. It is expected that the basis will be weak, and the later large - scale arrival of goods will suppress the increase [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the large trading difficulty [9] - **Arbitrage**: P59 and Y59 can consider reverse arbitrage at high prices [10] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The attachments include 8 figures, showing the spot basis and monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as cross - variety spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the overall trend of edible oils is oscillating. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil prices all rose by over 1% today. Palm oil is expected to have limited price fluctuations, soybean oil will follow the palm oil trend, and rapeseed oil will maintain a slight inventory reduction in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the long - term [4][7][8] - The recommended trading strategies are to wait and see for single - side trading, consider reverse arbitrage for P59 and Y59, and wait and see for options [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot prices and basis**: For soybean oil, the 2605 closing price is 8140, with a rise of 86. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8540, 8620, and 8440 respectively, and the basis in these regions are 480, 400, and 300 respectively. For palm oil, the 2605 closing price is 8824, up 126. The spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8774, 8764, and 8914 respectively, and the basis are - 50, - 60, and 90 respectively. For rapeseed oil, the 2605 closing price is 9200, up 162. The spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9820, 9900, and the basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong are 620 and 700 respectively [2] - **Monthly spreads**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 70 with no change, that of palm oil is 10 with a rise of 8, and that of rapeseed oil is 29 with a rise of 1 [2] - **Cross - variety spreads**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is 684 with a change of - 40, the OI - Y spread is 1060, and the OI - P spread is 376 with a rise of 36. The oil - meal ratio is 2.93 with a rise of 0.05 [2] - **Import profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a disk profit of - 230, and the CNF price is 1105. The FOB price of Rotterdam rapeseed oil is 1062, and the disk profit is - 1401 [2] - **Weekly commercial inventory**: In the 6th week of 2026, the soybean oil inventory is 70.1 tons (compared with 96.0 tons last week and 94.7 tons last year), the palm oil inventory is 72.7 tons (compared with 44.3 tons last year), and the rapeseed oil inventory is 23.7 tons (compared with 24.2 tons last week and 64.0 tons last year) [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International market**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that the price of crude palm oil in March will fluctuate between 4000 and 4300 ringgit per ton (about 1026 - 1103 US dollars). Supply tightening, increased demand from major buyer India, and the strengthening of US soybean oil prices will support palm oil prices, but the abundant global soybean supply and increased soybean oil exports may limit its increase [4] - **Domestic market**: - **Palm oil**: After the festival, palm oil prices rose. As of February 6, 2026, the national palm oil commercial inventory was 72.67 tons, a 3.61% increase from last week. The origin's quotes increased steadily, the import profit was inverted by about 200, the basis was weak, and the spot trading volume increased slightly. In the short - term, palm oil will remain oscillating [4] - **Soybean oil**: The soybean oil price rose today. Before the festival, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 168.79 tons, and the operating rate was 46.43%, a decrease from the previous week. As of February 6, 2026, the national soybean oil commercial inventory was 115.52 tons, a 0.78% increase from last week. The soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, but it is still at a relatively high level in the same period. The basis is stable, the market trading is dull, and in the short - term, it will follow the palm oil trend [5][7] - **Rapeseed oil**: The rapeseed oil price rose today. Before the festival, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 1 ton, and the operating rate was 2.67%, an increase from the previous week. As of February 20, 2026, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 9.8 tons, a decrease of 6 tons from last week. As of February 6, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 23.7 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB quote was stable at around 1030 US dollars, and the import profit inversion expanded to about - 1300. After the festival, the number of operating oil mills increased, the supply may increase, and the demand is weak. The basis is expected to be weak. Recently, a large amount of Canadian rapeseed has been purchased, which may bring supply pressure in the long - term. In the short - term, the inventory is slightly decreasing, and the actual available inventory is tight, which supports the near - term basis. The high import cost also supports the price. The domestic rapeseed oil is still affected by policy, and attention should be paid to the changes in rapeseed import policies [8] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Wait and see in the short - term as edible oils are oscillating [10] - **Arbitrage**: Consider reverse arbitrage for P59 and Y59 when the price is high [10] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [13][14][16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the USDA report, which raised the forecast for Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production to 180 million tons, is overall bearish for the oil market. However, trading is light before the holiday, causing the market to fluctuate [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,906.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan or -0.38% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,110.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.00 yuan or +0.15% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,131.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 35.00 yuan or +0.38% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or -0.34%, with a spot basis of P05 - 56.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of Y05 + 280.00, a decrease of 12.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,880.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 30.00 yuan or +0.30%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 749.00, a decrease of 5.00 yuan [1] Market Information - Indonesia's decision to suspend the expansion of the biodiesel blending ratio and the expectation of increased production in the coming months may pressure palm oil prices, but strong demand and a slowdown in overall production growth may limit the downside [2] - In 2026, Southeast Asian palm oil production is expected to increase slightly as Indonesia's weather improves, despite a decline in Malaysia's production. Southeast Asia supplies nearly 90% of the world's palm oil [2] - In China, the outlook for 2026 is not optimistic due to the expansion of domestic soybean crushing capacity, sufficient supply of other vegetable oils, and continuous substitution based on price factors [2] - Indonesia's confiscation of palm plantations may affect production due to reduced fertilization and lack of maintenance [2] Price Forecast - The Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (GAPKI) expects palm oil prices to fluctuate between 4,100 and 4,400 ringgit per ton in the first half of 2026, then moderate due to increased supply [3] - In the second half of 2026, palm oil prices are expected to fall to the range of 4,000 - 4,300 ringgit due to seasonal harvest increases and competition from soybean and sunflower oils [3] Production and Export Data - Indonesia's crude palm oil production increased by 8% to 51.98 million tons in 2025 and is expected to grow by 2% - 3% this year [3] - Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2025 were 32.11 million tons, an 8.7% increase year - on - year, and the inventory at the end of 2025 was 2.66 million tons [3] - The USDA maintained its forecast for Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production at 48.5 million tons, while the market expected 48.38 million tons [3][4] - The USDA raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production from 178 million tons to 180 million tons, while the market expected 179.39 million tons [3][4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) forecasts that crude palm oil prices will fluctuate between 4100 to 4300 ringgit per ton in the coming month, driven by strong soybean oil market and festive demand in India [1] - As of July 18, Malaysia's palm oil commercial inventory reached 591,400 tons, an increase of 28,400 tons (5.04%) from the previous week, and up 112,500 tons (23.49%) year-on-year from 478,900 tons [1] - From July 1-20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 7.03% month-on-month, while the extraction rate decreased by 0.16%, resulting in a production increase of 6.19% compared to the same period last month [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Hualian Futures reports that Malaysia's palm oil export volume from July 1-20 decreased by 3.5% and 7.3% according to ITS and AmSpec data respectively, indicating a divergence in export trends that requires further monitoring [2] - The long-term policies in the U.S. and Indonesia favor oilseeds, with expectations of a short-term strong fluctuation in domestic oil prices, suggesting a support level for palm oil at around 8500 [2] - Zhonghui Futures notes that the export and production data for Malaysian palm oil in the first half of the month is bearish, but Indonesia's commitment to achieving B40 and testing B50 has alleviated market concerns, positively impacting international palm oil prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil market is experiencing a short-term fluctuation, with prices of various oilseed contracts declining due to easing geopolitical tensions and changing supply-demand dynamics [1] Price Movements - BMD palm oil futures fell by 103 to close at 4012 MYR/ton, a decrease of 2.5% - The September palm oil contract dropped by 160 to 8376 CNY/ton, down 1.87% - Soybean oil futures decreased by 154 to 8002 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.89% - Canola oil futures fell by 260 to 9466 CNY/ton, down 2.67% - CBOT soybean oil futures dropped by 2.42 to 52.62 cents/pound, a decrease of 4.4% - ICE canola futures fell by 42.8 to 698.7 CAD/ton, down 5.77% [1] Market Influences - The decline in oilseed prices is attributed to the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict and the effectiveness of the ceasefire agreement, which reduced geopolitical risks affecting oil prices [1] - High-frequency data indicates a moderate increase in June palm oil production, while the growth in export demand is narrowing, leading to an expected increase in inventory by the end of June [1] - Domestic palm oil inventory is rising, improving the previously tight market conditions [1] Macro Factors - The U.S. Treasury Secretary hinted at the possibility of extending tariffs until September 1, contributing to a weaker dollar index and fluctuating oil prices [1] - Weak U.S. economic data has increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which may influence market dynamics [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Brazil has raised the mandatory blending ratio for biodiesel from 14% to 15%, which is expected to support market prices [1] - Anticipated increases in palm oil inventory by the end of June suggest a more relaxed supply situation, awaiting the release of the MPOB report [1] - The recent increase in palm oil shipments to ports indicates a recovery in inventory levels, alleviating previous urgent procurement needs [1] Short-term Outlook - Overall, the palm oil market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, influenced by biodiesel policies, the MPOB report, production levels, and export trends [1]