Macro Strategy - The core view indicates that actual interest rates remain the key anchor for gold prices, with fluctuations driven by macroeconomic policies and geopolitical factors [1][11] - In November, gold prices are expected to be influenced by geopolitical situations, trade negotiations, and macro policies, with a potential for continued high-level fluctuations [1][11] - The CME interest rate futures suggest a widespread expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which may support gold prices [1][11] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses a trading strategy of "long old bonds and short new bonds" based on the behavior of active bond spreads, which typically exhibit a jump during the switching process [2][12] - The active bond spread trading strategy remains profitable, with the maximum spread observed at 9.8 basis points since 2023, indicating a favorable trading environment [2][12] Food and Beverage Industry - The beer sector is currently viewed as being at a bottoming phase, with expectations for demand recovery driven by macro policy changes and improved fundamentals in 2024 [4][14] - The report highlights that the beer sector's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 617.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.99% [4][15] - Key players such as Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer are expected to perform well, with a focus on high-growth segments and defensive strategies [4][15] Healthcare Products Industry - The healthcare products sector showed a year-on-year revenue growth of 18% and a net profit increase of 122% in Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend despite individual stock variations [16][17] - Companies like Tongrentang and Minsheng Health are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential in the healthcare market [16][17] Nonferrous Metals Industry - The report notes that industrial metals are experiencing high-level fluctuations, with copper prices expected to strengthen after a period of consolidation due to supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment [5][19] - Aluminum prices have shown an upward trend, supported by supply stability and increased demand, particularly in the context of geopolitical developments [5][19] Media Industry - The media sector reported a revenue of 1,279 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase, with the gaming sector showing particularly strong performance [6][20] - The gaming segment's net profit grew by 76% year-on-year, driven by successful product launches and a stable revenue growth trajectory [6][20]

Macro Strategy - The core view is that actual interest rates remain the key anchor for gold prices, with fluctuations in actual rates dominating the market dynamics for gold [1][22] - In October, gold prices experienced a "rise first, then fall" pattern, influenced by U.S. government shutdown concerns and subsequent economic data recovery [1][22] - The outlook for November suggests that gold prices will be driven by geopolitical situations, trade negotiations, and macro policies, with a potential for continued high-level fluctuations [1][22] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses a trading strategy of "long old bonds and short new bonds" based on the behavior of active bond spreads during the cutting process [2][23] - The active bond spread is expected to remain profitable, with the maximum spread observed at 9.8 basis points since the switch in 2023 [2][23] - The next active bond switch is anticipated around early January 2026, providing an opportunity to leverage the characteristics of active bond spreads for trading [2][23] Retail Industry - Baima Tea, a leader in the high-end tea market, has recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on high-quality tea products and targeting younger consumers [4][26] - The company's revenue growth has been accompanied by a decline in profit margins, with a slight decrease in gross and net profit margins reported [4][26] - The online sales channel is increasingly significant, with its contribution to total revenue rising from 19% in 2020 to 35% in the first half of 2025 [4][26] Food and Beverage Industry - The report highlights a divergence in growth within the snack sector, with leading companies showing more sustainable growth due to channel changes and consumer shifts [5][27] - Companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long are recommended for their strong channel layouts and significant contributions from key products [5][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous growth and valuation switching certainty in investment recommendations, particularly for companies like Ba Bi Food and Guo Quan [5][27]

Group 1 - The report discusses the emergence of active bond yield spreads, defined as the difference in yields between newly issued bonds (active bonds) and older bonds, primarily due to the liquidity premium associated with new bonds [7][18]. - It identifies three key patterns observed since 2016 regarding the trading volume and transaction amounts of 10-year government bonds and policy bank bonds, highlighting that the trading volume of new bonds is significantly higher than that of older bonds [7][18]. - The report notes that the trading volume of 30-year government bonds has increased significantly since 2024, indicating a growing institutional interest in ultra-long bonds [7][18]. Group 2 - The report analyzes the convergence patterns of active bond yield spreads, noting that after each switch of active bonds, the yield spread typically exhibits an inverted "V" shape, initially widening before gradually narrowing [27][31]. - It emphasizes that the speed and extent of convergence can vary under different market conditions, influenced by the behavior of trading and allocation participants [31][34]. - The report suggests that in a low-rate environment, allocation demand drives the market, leading to a "hold" mentality that increases prices and decreases yields on older bonds, potentially resulting in negative yield spreads [34][42]. Group 3 - The report proposes a trading strategy based on the active bond yield spread, recommending a "long old bonds, short new bonds" approach, while considering borrowing costs and potential returns during the convergence of yield spreads [45][49]. - It estimates that the borrowing cost for this strategy is approximately 40 basis points, and the active bond yield spread needs to be around 5 basis points to cover these costs [45][49]. - The report concludes that the active bond yield spread trading strategy remains profitable, with the maximum yield spread observed since 2023 being around 9.8 basis points [45][49].