固收资产配置丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 活跃券中的收益挖掘之路——走在债市曲线之 前系列报告（五） %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 活跃券现象本质上是配置盘与交易盘的分化所致，新券在发行后经历"流动性积累→溢价走阔 →切换为活跃券→溢价继续走阔→溢价压缩"的周期演变，新老券利差是流动性溢价的观测指 标。新券要具有成为活跃券的资质，首先需要满足期限偏长、规模较大、连续续发这三个核心 条件，此外还要考虑发行时点、代码便利性。新老券利差形态的演变在券种间存在分化，新老 券利差中枢下移，活跃券周期普遍缩短，利差峰值出现时间缩短，未来活跃券现象或逐渐弱化。 活跃券套利策略可分为四个阶段，本文对每阶段的套利空间和止盈指标进行了具体测算。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary2] 活跃券现象 [Tabl ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a strong consolidation, with expectations that the central bank will maintain its current policy on reverse repos to ensure liquidity in the banking system [1][5][7]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.35% to 119.780, and the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.17% to 108.925 [2]. - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.25 basis points to 1.6655% [2]. Monetary Policy Actions - The central bank conducted a 1350 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a total of 2911 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1561 billion yuan [5][6]. - The central bank is set to conduct a 10,000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation for three months, marking the first public operation of this kind at the beginning of the month [5][7]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities suggests that the buyout reverse repo operations will continue to be a channel for medium to long-term liquidity, with pricing becoming more market-oriented [7]. - Dongfang Jincheng notes that the central bank's announcement of large-scale buyout reverse repos is likely related to the peak of interbank certificate maturities in June, which amounts to 4.16 trillion yuan [7]. - Huachuang Fixed Income indicates that the central bank's approach to announcing operation scales in advance will help institutions manage liquidity better [7].

银行间主要利率债收益率盘初持续上行，10年期国债"25附息国债04"收益率上行2.00bp报1.6450%，10 年期国开债"25国开05"收益率上行2.00bp报1.7175%，30年期国债"23附息国债23"收益率上行2.40bp报 1.9000%。 ...

▍ 上 周债市震荡偏弱。 2 0 2 5年4月2 1日至2 0 2 5年4月2 5日，债市震荡偏弱。1 0年期国债收益率从上周的1 . 6 4 9 3%变动至1 . 6 6 0 6%；1 0年期国开债收益 率从上周的1 . 6 8 1 0%变动至1 . 6 9 6 1%；TS、TF、T、TL主力合约收盘价分别变动- 0 . 1 5 /- 0 . 3 0 /- 0 . 2 6 /- 0 . 0 2元。 文 ｜ 明明 周成华 丘远航 赵诣 在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率 更大。 ▍ 风险因素： 美国关税政策继续反复；货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月27日 发布的《 每周债券策略聚焦20250426—适时降准降息窗口临近 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报 告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 ▍ 具体看单日表现。 周一，LPR维持不变，现券收益率有所上行。周二，税 期尾声，资金利率回落，债市修复。周三 ...