乌克兰方向的消息令避险需求出现微调。泽连斯基与美国官员讨论修订后的20点和平框架，若未来取得 明显进展，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力将受到部分挤压，使上方空间承压。 周四美股整体保持稳健，但科技板块受博通与甲骨文回调影响表现偏弱。标普500与道指保持创新高态 势，而纳指在大型科技股承压之下录得小幅回落。投资者对流动性环境维持乐观，但AI板块盈利兑现 节奏仍具不确定性，使科技股的波动更加突出。 黄金仍处于上行结构，关注4245至4250美元压力带，以及4200美元作为关键支撑。若金价在政策面与流 动性改善的共同作用下有效企稳4250美元上方，下方目标区间或延伸至4277至4300美元。若科技股带动 风险偏好修复或乌克兰局势趋稳，则需观察金价在4200至4170美元支撑带的承接强度。短线节奏依旧围 绕利率定价、事件变量与流动性变化展开。 美联储周三以微弱多数通过25个基点降息，将联邦基金利率区间压至3.50至3.75，为近三年来最低。决 议公布后美元回落，黄金持仓成本相应下降，推动金价突破4250美元成为顺势反应。美国初请失业金人 数录得四年半以来最大增幅，使市场更坚定对未来宽松路径的判断，从而进一步弱化美元的短期支 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce the end of its balance sheet reduction (QT) during the upcoming meeting, which has led to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield below 4.0% for the first time in a year [2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Changes - Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded from $4.31 trillion to nearly $9 trillion by April 2022, effectively doubling in size [4]. - The Fed initiated asset purchases in March 2020, announcing a $500 billion increase in Treasury securities [4]. - In December 2020, the Fed committed to purchasing at least $800 billion in Treasury securities and $400 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) monthly [5]. - The tapering of asset purchases began in July 2021, with a gradual reduction in the pace of buying [5]. - The balance sheet reduction started in June 2022, with monthly reductions of $30 billion in Treasuries and $17.5 billion in MBS, increasing to $60 billion and $35 billion respectively by September 2022 [5]. - By March 2025, the reduction pace for Treasuries is expected to slow to $5 billion per month [5]. Reasons for Ending QT - The need to avoid increased market financing costs and tightening liquidity in the overnight money market [7]. - Core inflation has been affected by tariffs and wages, and aggressive rate cuts could exacerbate inflation [7]. - To prevent long-term Treasury yields from rising due to a new round of fiscal expansion [7]. - The U.S. housing market is closely linked to MBS and long-term rates, necessitating a careful approach to avoid destabilizing the housing market [7]. Market Impact of Ending QT - Gold prices are likely to rise due to improved liquidity, alongside declining real interest rates and a weaker dollar [8]. - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to trend downward in the medium to long term, influenced by rate cut expectations [8]. - Overall, the end of QT could support equity valuations due to improved liquidity and lower yield expectations, although it may also lead to increased volatility if interpreted as a reactive policy change [8].