风电：Q2 开始兑现业绩，景气加速向上 20250817 2025 年风电行业的业绩表现预计将非常强劲，主要有几个关键因素推动了这 一表现。首先，零部件厂在二季度已经开始释放业绩，而风机将在三季度开始 释放业绩。这主要是由于去年三季度招标价格反弹带来的影响。此外，从已经 发布的企业二季报来看，新强联同比增长超过 500%，大金等企业的盈利也超 出预期。虽然一些海上风电为主的企业如东软在二季度业绩相对平淡，但其三 季度业绩预计将超预期，因为其在手订单量达到 196 亿元，并且存货同比增长 接近 70%，环比增长约 40%。此外，今年国内需求非常旺盛，因为这是"十 四五"规划的最后一年，预计国内风机装机量至少达到 115GW，其中陆上风 电 105GW，海上风电 10GW。供给侧方面，由于央企招标价格规则改变和反 内卷倡议，招标价格已反弹超过 10%。因此，今年是风电行业能够兑现业绩的 国内海上风电项目全面开工，预计 2025 年装机容量翻倍增长。中央财 经委员会将海上风电作为海洋产业发展重点，并发布相关政策支持深海 经济发展。 风电行业担忧包括风电站交易暂停、零部件价格上涨和 2026 年需求下 滑。但风电站收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European offshore wind construction is accelerating due to improved strategic importance, reduced project costs, and policy-driven initiatives [3][4]. Group 1: Strategic Importance - The strategic importance of offshore wind has increased following the natural gas crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a consensus among European countries to transition to renewable energy [3]. - The "Ostend Declaration" established a target for North Sea countries to achieve 120GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 and over 300GW by 2050 [3]. Group 2: Cost Reduction - Financing rates for offshore wind projects in Europe have decreased due to eight interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank since June 2024 [3]. - The development cost of offshore wind has dropped from $5,418/kW in 2010 to $3,138/kW in 2023, while the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) has fallen from $0.205/kWh to $0.067/kWh during the same period [3]. Group 3: Policy Goals - Various European countries have set clear policy goals and reformed auction systems to promote offshore wind development [4]. - The UK aims for 43-50GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030, with reforms to the Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction system to facilitate project development [4]. - Germany's new policy goals aim for cumulative offshore wind capacity of 30GW by 2030, 40GW by 2035, and 70GW by 2045, leading to a resurgence in project development [4]. - The Netherlands plans to tender 11GW of offshore wind capacity over the next three years to meet its 21GW target by 2032 [5]. - Poland is emerging as a new offshore wind market, with its first project starting construction by the end of 2024 and an expected 6GW of new capacity from 2025 to 2030 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 projected at 7.4 billion, 10.7 billion, and 12.1 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 13, and 11 [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.35 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 19.6%, but achieved a net profit of 0.66 billion, marking a return to profitability [2]. - In Q1 2025, the company saw a significant revenue increase of 251% year-on-year, reaching 4.36 billion, although net profit decreased by 13.3% to 0.64 billion [2]. - The overall demand for offshore wind in China was below expectations in 2024, leading to a slight decline in overall shipments and a decrease in gross margin by approximately 2.1 percentage points [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from an increase in project deliveries, with a gross margin of approximately 15.05% in Q1 2025, up about 10 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company has established multiple production bases across key regions, positioning itself to fully benefit from the growth in the domestic offshore wind sector [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.35 billion, down 19.6% year-on-year, while net profit was 0.66 billion, returning to positive figures [2]. - Q1 2025 revenue reached 4.36 billion, a 251% increase year-on-year, but net profit fell 13.3% to 0.64 billion [2]. Operational Analysis - The offshore wind demand in China was lower than expected in 2024, impacting overall shipments and leading to a decline in gross margin [2]. - The company’s revenue from pile foundations decreased by 22.7% to approximately 0.85 billion, with a gross margin of 4.29%, down 6.0 percentage points [2]. - The tower business generated 3.2 billion in revenue, down 18.7%, but gross margin improved by 4.38 percentage points to 7.9% [2]. - The company’s revenue from the guide frame business increased by 6.8% to 1.37 billion, with a gross margin of 4.79%, up 10.28 percentage points [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 7.4 billion, 10.7 billion, and 12.1 billion, with corresponding PE ratios of 18, 13, and 11 [4].

Group 1: Precision Instruments - The article emphasizes that precision instruments are the cornerstone of modern industry and technology development, with increasing risks from U.S. restrictions [1] - It suggests three main investment lines in China's precision instrument sector: seeking "China's Zeiss" in optical instruments, "China's HP" in electronic measurement instruments, and "China's Thermo Fisher" in analytical instruments [1] Group 2: Chromium Chemicals - The price of metal chromium has significantly increased, with a total price hike of 10,000 yuan per ton since the beginning of 2025, indicating strong demand and supply dynamics [2] - The article recommends investing in leading companies with integrated chromium product layouts due to the favorable market conditions [2] Group 3: Insurance Companies - Insurance companies face challenges in asset-liability matching, with a near 50% allocation to fixed-income assets, leading to risks of interest margin losses [3][4] - The article highlights three strategies for insurance capital to enhance investment returns: participating in private placements, strategic investments, and shareholding strategies [3][4] Group 4: Wind Power - The domestic and international offshore wind power sectors are expected to see sustained growth, with domestic installations projected to exceed 12 GW in 2025, doubling year-on-year [6] - The article suggests focusing on various segments of the offshore wind power supply chain, including turbines, subsea cables, and foundations [6] Group 5: ETF Market - The global ETF market is projected to reach $15.09 trillion by 2024, while China's ETF market remains relatively small and underdeveloped [7] - The article advocates for domestic institutions to innovate product types and enhance liquidity mechanisms to build a sustainable market ecosystem [7]