（一）轴承钢 优特钢产量稳健增长 2024年中国特钢企业协会（下称特钢协）重点统计会员企业优特钢粗钢产量为7869万吨，较2021年增长19.3%，较"十三五"末增长14.5%。预计2025年 （图示为2025E，下同）优特钢粗钢产量为7974万吨，较2021年增长20.9%，较"十三五"末增长16.0%。 2 重点品种产量保持增长 2024年特钢协重点统计会员企业轴承钢粗钢产量为497万吨，较2021年增长12.2%，较"十三五"末增长25.2%。预计2025年轴承钢粗钢产量为488万吨，较 2021年增长10.2%，较"十三五"末增长22.9%。 1 （二）齿轮钢 2024年特钢协重点统计会员企业齿轮钢粗钢产量为502万吨，较2021年增长39.1%，较"十三五"末增长35.7%。预计2025年齿轮钢粗钢产量为560万吨，较 2021年增长55.1%，较"十三五"末增长51.4%。 （三）工具钢 2024年特钢协重点统计会员企业工具钢粗钢产量为85万吨，较2021年增长44.1%，较"十三五"末增长2.4%。预计2025年工具钢粗钢产量为87万吨，较2021 年增长47.5%，较"十三五"末增长4.8%。 ...

Investment Summary - The construction and building materials industry is expected to face demand challenges in 2025 due to declining infrastructure and manufacturing investment, alongside a significant drop in real estate investment [1] - Local governments are stabilizing debt management and maintaining high growth in refinancing special bonds, with infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) expected to see a negative year-on-year growth rate [1] - The real estate sector has experienced a continuous decline in fixed asset investment for 40 months, with the drop in new construction, construction, and completion areas showing signs of narrowing [1][2] Economic Impact - The negative cycle of the real estate sector continues to impact overall economic demand, although the intensity of this impact is weakening [2] - The new commodity housing price index has decreased by 11.77% from its peak in September 2021 to October 2025, while the second-hand housing price index has dropped by 20.31% in the same period [2] - Government revenue from land sales has seen a significant reduction, but general revenue has turned positive year-on-year [2] Policy Direction - The focus for 2026 will be on expanding domestic demand to counteract the negative effects of the real estate sector, with policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market and improving housing demand [3][4] - Infrastructure projects will prioritize modern infrastructure systems and effective project implementation through special bonds and long-term national bonds [3] - The government aims to enhance consumer spending and promote new consumption patterns, including the expansion of service consumption and the removal of unreasonable consumption restrictions [3] Investment Strategy - Companies in the building materials sector are expected to see improvements in profitability due to the "anti-involution" policy, which is set to optimize supply and stabilize product prices [4] - There is a growing opportunity for traditional industries to expand internationally, leveraging China's competitive advantages and the favorable conditions for overseas development [4][5] - The release of new demands driven by technological advancements and the maturation of the industrial system is anticipated to create opportunities in new materials [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector, which has negatively impacted industry demand and financial performance [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 19.905 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.25% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.586 billion yuan, down 17.77% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 2.531 billion yuan, a decline of 17.52% year-on-year [1]. - Basic earnings per share (EPS) stood at 1.53 yuan [1]. - The comprehensive gross profit margin was 29.53%, down 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net profit margin was 13.34%, a decrease of 2.36 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The return on equity (ROE) after deducting non-recurring items was 9.64%, down 3.01 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost Structure - The sales expense ratio increased to 5.57%, up 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The management expense ratio rose to 4.48%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Debt and Product Structure Optimization - The company reduced its interest-bearing debt ratio to 0.80%, a significant decrease of 8.51 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company optimized its debt structure by reducing bank loans and increasing the issuance of short-term financing bonds, with two issuances of 1 billion yuan each at interest rates of 1.78% and 1.66% [3]. - The financial expense ratio was 0.13%, down 0.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company increased investment in gypsum fiberboard and is actively developing production lines in Thailand and Bosnia to enhance product structure and expand overseas [3]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned as an industry leader with strong risk resistance capabilities, ensuring stable operations even in a challenging environment [3]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from any improvement in supply and demand dynamics, leading to greater earnings elasticity [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 3.278 billion, 3.610 billion, and 4.141 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.93, 2.12, and 2.44 yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 12.15, 11.03, and 9.62 for 2025-2027 [4]. - The company maintains a "strongly recommended" rating due to its resilience and ongoing optimization efforts [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Conch Cement [2][11]. Core Views - The cement industry is experiencing continued weakness, but Conch Cement is leveraging both organic growth and overseas expansion to create new opportunities [5][11]. - In 2024, Conch Cement's revenue is projected to be 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.70 billion yuan, down 26.21% [3][12]. - The company has seen a decrease in sales volume due to weak industry demand, but prices have rebounded since the third quarter of 2024, positively impacting profit margins [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Conch Cement's self-produced cement sales volume was 26.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of cement in 2024 was 214.17 yuan/ton, down 21.68% year-on-year [3]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 22.88%, up 5.13 percentage points year-on-year, offsetting the impact of declining sales volume [4]. Market Position - Conch Cement has maintained a market share increase despite a 9.50% decline in national cement production in 2024, showcasing its cost advantages [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading national cement producer, benefiting from its scale and cost efficiency [4]. Growth Opportunities - The current industry downturn has accelerated Conch Cement's market share growth and provided opportunities for external expansion [5]. - The company is actively pursuing regional capacity consolidation and has established offices in Africa and South America, with production lines in Uzbekistan and Cambodia expected to commence operations in early 2025 [5]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Conch Cement from 2025 to 2027 are 9.36 billion yuan, 10.40 billion yuan, and 11.64 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77 yuan, 1.96 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [5][12].