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海螺水泥(600585):行业持续低迷,内生外延和海外拓展新空间
Dongxing Securities· 2025-05-03 14:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Conch Cement [2][11]. Core Views - The cement industry is experiencing continued weakness, but Conch Cement is leveraging both organic growth and overseas expansion to create new opportunities [5][11]. - In 2024, Conch Cement's revenue is projected to be 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.70 billion yuan, down 26.21% [3][12]. - The company has seen a decrease in sales volume due to weak industry demand, but prices have rebounded since the third quarter of 2024, positively impacting profit margins [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Conch Cement's self-produced cement sales volume was 26.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of cement in 2024 was 214.17 yuan/ton, down 21.68% year-on-year [3]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 22.88%, up 5.13 percentage points year-on-year, offsetting the impact of declining sales volume [4]. Market Position - Conch Cement has maintained a market share increase despite a 9.50% decline in national cement production in 2024, showcasing its cost advantages [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading national cement producer, benefiting from its scale and cost efficiency [4]. Growth Opportunities - The current industry downturn has accelerated Conch Cement's market share growth and provided opportunities for external expansion [5]. - The company is actively pursuing regional capacity consolidation and has established offices in Africa and South America, with production lines in Uzbekistan and Cambodia expected to commence operations in early 2025 [5]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Conch Cement from 2025 to 2027 are 9.36 billion yuan, 10.40 billion yuan, and 11.64 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77 yuan, 1.96 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [5][12].