上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 22 日 巴比食品 (605338) ——内生外延并举驱动收入 盈利能力受益成本下降 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | 22.35 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 24.00/12.43 | | | 市净率 | | 2.4 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | | 3.58 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | | 5,354 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,825.76/12,166.06 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.17 | | 资产负债率% | 18.79 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 240/240 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12-22 01-2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Conch Cement [2][11]. Core Views - The cement industry is experiencing continued weakness, but Conch Cement is leveraging both organic growth and overseas expansion to create new opportunities [5][11]. - In 2024, Conch Cement's revenue is projected to be 91.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.44%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.70 billion yuan, down 26.21% [3][12]. - The company has seen a decrease in sales volume due to weak industry demand, but prices have rebounded since the third quarter of 2024, positively impacting profit margins [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Conch Cement's self-produced cement sales volume was 26.8 million tons, a decrease of 5.96% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of cement in 2024 was 214.17 yuan/ton, down 21.68% year-on-year [3]. - The comprehensive gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 22.88%, up 5.13 percentage points year-on-year, offsetting the impact of declining sales volume [4]. Market Position - Conch Cement has maintained a market share increase despite a 9.50% decline in national cement production in 2024, showcasing its cost advantages [4]. - The company is positioned as a leading national cement producer, benefiting from its scale and cost efficiency [4]. Growth Opportunities - The current industry downturn has accelerated Conch Cement's market share growth and provided opportunities for external expansion [5]. - The company is actively pursuing regional capacity consolidation and has established offices in Africa and South America, with production lines in Uzbekistan and Cambodia expected to commence operations in early 2025 [5]. Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for Conch Cement from 2025 to 2027 are 9.36 billion yuan, 10.40 billion yuan, and 11.64 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.77 yuan, 1.96 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue for 2024, but a decline in Q1 2025, indicating potential challenges ahead [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 9.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 46%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1.27 billion, a slight increase of 1% [1][2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue dropped to 1.53 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, and net profit fell to 140 million, down 58% year-on-year [1][2]. Order and Inventory Status - As of the end of 2024, the company had contract liabilities of 2.63 billion, a decrease of 33% year-on-year, and inventory of 5.34 billion, down 30% year-on-year [3]. - New orders signed in 2024 totaled 10.15 billion, a decline of 22% year-on-year, with a backlog of 11.83 billion, down 10% year-on-year [3]. Market and Product Development - The company is expanding its overseas presence, establishing a joint venture in Malaysia focused on automation equipment, expected to start production in 2025 [4]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the company holds over 70% global market share in module string welding machines and secured 1.3 billion in overseas orders for low-oxygen monocrystalline furnaces [4]. - In the lithium battery sector, the company received significant orders for module PACK lines, while in the semiconductor sector, new orders exceeded 100 million [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 8.35 billion, 7.95 billion, and 8.55 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -9%, -5%, and +7% respectively [5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.14 billion, 1.01 billion, and 1.13 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -10%, -12%, and +12% respectively [5].

Core Insights - Company reported a total revenue of 4.211 billion yuan for 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 325 million yuan, up 16% [1] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw total revenue of 1.163 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 11% to 85 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - Gross margin increased by 1 percentage point to 31.46%, driven by cost reductions in procurement and optimized pricing strategies [2] - Sales and management expense ratios rose by 1 percentage point and 0.1 percentage points to 8.39% and 9.92%, respectively, due to sales team upgrades and marketing promotions [2] - Net profit margin slightly decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 6.70%, remaining relatively stable [2] Business Segments - Revenue from soft capsules reached 1.984 billion yuan, a 30% increase, attributed to product innovation and operational optimization, along with contributions from BF for external growth [3] - Revenue from gummy products was 995 million yuan, up 35%, mainly due to market expansion in the Americas and the establishment of BF gummy business [3] Market Expansion - Revenue in the China region decreased by 10% to 1.661 billion yuan, with the company restructuring its sales team and establishing a new retail business development team to stabilize domestic operations [4] - Revenue in the Americas increased by 60% to 1.666 billion yuan, benefiting from scale effects and a strong order backlog [4] - European revenue reached 604 million yuan, a 14% increase, with the launch of automated packaging production lines improving local delivery times [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance profitability through integration and cost-reduction measures, with a positive long-term outlook on product innovation and strong market competitiveness [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.73, 2.23, and 2.70 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14, 11, and 9 times [5]