记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨曾静娇 今年以来，人民币中间价年内涨幅超过1000个基点。 消息面上， 美联储降息预期改变。 据财联社援引CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储明年1月降息25个基 点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为75.6%。 国内经济有韧性。 12月15日国内最新经济数据出炉，11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳 中有进发展态势。（ 详情 ） 海外资金加速流入中国。 近期，国际货币基金组织（IMF）、世界银行及多家全球顶尖金融机 构接连发布报告，上调对中国经济增长的预期。尽管面临复杂内外环境，中国经济的韧性与政 策成效获得广泛认可，海外资金对中国市场的关注度与配置兴趣正显著回升。（ 详情 ） （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 12月15日，人民币走强，截至12:00左右，在岸人民币兑美元汇率升至7.05附近，为2024年10 月8日以来的最强水平；离岸人民币击穿7.05，达7.04686。 12月15日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0656，下调18点。 | W | 美元兑人民币(CFETS) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | USDCNY ...

【导读】人民币持续走强，离岸和在岸均刷新逾一年来新高 中国基金报记者 忆山 人民币持续走强！ 12 月 15 日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 为 1 美元对 人民币 7.0656 元，较上个交易日调贬 18 个基点。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，人民币走势偏强会提振资本市场信心，也会吸引更多海 外资金流入国内资本市场，并与汇市走强形成良性联动。他认为短期内人民币还会处于偏强 运行状态，后续要重点关注美元走势、人民币中间价调控力度，以及国内稳增长政策的力度 和节奏。 展望后续，外资机构和人士普遍认为，人民币或将持续升值，不过节奏略有分化。 澳新银行驻新加坡亚洲研究主管 Khoon Goh 预计，人民币兑美元汇率将在 2026 年保持温 和升值，年末预计将升至 6.95 一线。 12 月 15 日，在岸人民币兑美元汇率升至 7.05 ，达 2024 年 10 月 8 日以来的最强水平。 截至发稿，报 7.0505 。 离 岸 人 民 币 兑 美 元 汇 率 再 度 升 破 7.0 5 ， 创 2 0 2 4 年 1 0 月 3 日 以 来 新 高 。 截 至 发 稿 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The Chinese market is gaining traction, with overseas Chinese ETFs experiencing significant inflows, particularly from South Korean investors [1][4] - In August, South Korean investors accelerated their purchases of Chinese stocks, with net buying amounts reaching $7.29 million in July and $6.63 million from August 1 to August 18 [5][8] Group 2: ETF Inflows - The top three ETFs collectively attracted net inflows of approximately 13.03 billion yuan ($1.81 billion) over the past month, with KWEB, MCHI, and FXI leading the way [2][3] - KWEB saw inflows of $1.34 million on August 15, totaling $1.16 billion since July, while MCHI and FXI also reported substantial inflows [2][3] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Hedge funds are reportedly buying Chinese ETFs at the fastest pace in seven weeks, driven by both long positions and short covering, with a ratio of 1.9:1 [4] - There is a noticeable difference in sentiment between domestic and overseas investors, with Asian clients inquiring about the A-share bull market, while U.S. clients remain hesitant [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that overseas funds are rapidly investing in A-shares, with significant inflows into Chinese ETFs, particularly from Korean investors [1][4]. - The top three ETFs have collectively attracted a net inflow of 13 billion yuan (approximately 1.81 billion USD) over the past month, with KWEB, MCHI, and FXI leading the way [2][3]. - There is a notable increase in the allocation of global actively managed public funds to Chinese stocks, reaching 6.4% of their portfolios, although this remains below the historical average [3]. Group 2 - Korean investors have significantly increased their purchases of Chinese stocks, with net buying amounts reaching 7.29 million USD in July and 6.63 million USD from August 1 to August 18 [5][7]. - The top ten stocks purchased by Korean investors in July included Alibaba, Ningde Times, and various ETFs, with a total net buying amount of 7.29 million USD [5][6]. - In August, the top three A-shares purchased by Korean investors were Zhongji Xuchuang, BYD, and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, with net buying amounts of 3.7 million USD, 259.71 thousand USD, and 236.79 thousand USD respectively [8].

Core Insights - The Chinese market is experiencing increased interest from overseas investors, particularly through ETFs, with significant inflows noted from South Korean investors [1][4]. Group 1: ETF Inflows - The top three ETFs tracking Chinese indices have collectively attracted 13 billion yuan (approximately $1.8 billion) in the past month [2][3]. - KWEB, which tracks the China Internet Index, saw inflows of $1.34 billion since July, bringing its total assets to $8.02 billion [2]. - MCHI, tracking the MSCI China Index, received $1.19 billion in inflows, with total assets reaching $7.47 billion [2]. - FXI, which tracks the FTSE China 50 Index, had inflows of $690.6 million, totaling $6.55 billion in assets [2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Hedge funds are reportedly buying Chinese ETFs at the fastest pace in seven weeks, with a buy-to-cover ratio of 1.9:1 [4]. - There is a noticeable difference in sentiment between Asian and American investors regarding the Chinese market, with Asian investors showing more interest in the A-share bull market [4]. - South Korean investors have significantly increased their purchases of Chinese stocks, with net buying of $7.29 million in July and $6.63 million from August 1 to August 18 [5][7]. Group 3: Specific Stock Purchases - In July, the top ten Hong Kong stocks purchased by South Korean investors included Alibaba, Ningde Times, and Global X China Core Technology ETF, with a total net purchase of $7.29 million [5][6]. - From August 1 to August 18, the top ten Hong Kong stocks saw a net purchase of $6.63 million, nearly matching the total for July [7]. - The top three A-shares purchased by South Korean investors in August were Zhongji Xuchuang, BYD, and Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, with net purchases of $3.7 million, $2.6 million, and $2.4 million respectively [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing interest of overseas investors in A-shares, particularly through ETFs, with significant inflows observed in recent months, indicating a potential bullish sentiment in the Chinese market [2][4][8]. Group 1: ETF Inflows - The top three ETFs have collectively attracted 13 billion RMB (approximately 1.31 billion USD) in the past month [3][6]. - The KWEB ETF, tracking the China Internet Index, saw inflows of 1.34 million USD on August 15, totaling 1.16 billion USD since July [4]. - The MCHI ETF, tracking the MSCI China Index, received 1.19 million USD on August 15, with total inflows of 581 million USD since July [4]. - The FXI ETF, tracking the FTSE China 50 Index, had inflows of 690.6 million USD since July [4]. - In contrast, the ASHR ETF, tracking the CSI 300 Index, experienced a net outflow of 80.1 million USD on August 13, totaling 65.19 million USD since July [4]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors typically enter the Chinese market through ETFs, but hedge funds have also contributed to net inflows, buying at the fastest pace in seven weeks [8]. - There is a noticeable difference in sentiment between domestic and overseas investors, with Asian clients inquiring about the A-share bull market, while U.S. clients remain hesitant [8]. - The fear of missing out (FOMO) among overseas investors is expected to intensify, although many still exhibit a selling bias [8]. Group 3: Korean Investors - In August, Korean investors accelerated their purchases of Chinese stocks, with net buying of 72.94 million USD in July for the top ten Hong Kong stocks [10]. - From August 1 to August 18, Korean investors net bought 66.27 million USD in the top ten Hong Kong stocks, nearly matching the total for July [10]. - For A-shares, Korean investors net bought 21.03 million USD from August 1 to August 18, surpassing the 16.43 million USD net buying in July [13].

Group 1 - UBS Securities forecasts a weaker US dollar will lead to increased foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks, while A-shares may maintain a low premium over H-shares unless significant new external funds are attracted [1] - The report highlights that A-shares benefit from a slight appreciation of the RMB, resulting in some foreign capital returning, but the impact is limited due to the low foreign ownership ratio in A-shares [1] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to see more pronounced benefits from the weaker dollar, with southbound capital net purchases reaching a historical high in the first half of the year [1] Group 2 - Companies with high import costs or significant dollar-denominated debt are likely to benefit more from the weakening dollar [1]