证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 28 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：白酒龙头积极应对，大众品关注需求边际催化 投资建议：1、白酒：重视旺季边际改善的乐观信号，批价关键窗口期龙头积极应 对，中长期行业价值凸显。短期看弹性、中长期看龙头：1）短期边际变化弹性标 的：泸州老窖、港股珍酒李渡、舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、水井坊、老白干酒等。2）中 长期经营质量龙头标的：贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、今世缘、迎驾 贡酒等。2、大众品：华润啤酒 CFO 离职，万辰递表港交所，饮料行业新品频出， 双节渠道备货推进，重点关注优秀成长个股：1）高景气或高成长逻辑：盐津铺子、 东鹏饮料、百润股份、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、万辰集团、三只松鼠、有友食品等， 港股卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善：青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、伊利 股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健康、百龙创园、安井食品、立高食品、好想你 等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、H&H 国际控股等。 增持（维持） 行业走势 -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 食品饮料 沪深3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Minsheng Securities indicates that the Chinese liquor industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with major companies reporting negative revenue and profit growth for the first half of 2025, marking the first negative growth in revenue during this cycle [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, 17 major liquor companies reported revenues and net profits of 236.83 billion and 94.46 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.4% and 0.9% [1][4]. - For Q2 2025, these companies achieved revenues and net profits of 86.72 billion and 31.34 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.7% and 7.3% [1][4]. - Excluding Moutai, the revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 were 145.74 billion and 49.06 billion yuan, with declines of 5.5% and 8.6% year-on-year [4][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry is transitioning from "passive clearing" to "active adjustment," indicating a phase of accelerated bottoming out due to ongoing pressures from inventory and cash flow [1][4]. - The report highlights a shift in market focus from short-term recovery signs to long-term trends, emphasizing the importance of brand strength and market share in determining pricing [2][3]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Demand - The demand for liquor is expected to recover during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, driven by cultural events such as banquets and gatherings, which are seen as resilient demand scenarios [2][6]. - The report notes that the high-end liquor demand has been negatively impacted by government restrictions, leading to a trend of increasing volume but decreasing prices [5][6]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends strong brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as regional leaders with growth potential like Gujing Gongjiu and Jinhui Liquor [7].