交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 每日观点 利多：原油成本相对高位，略有支撑。 利空：高价货源需求不足；整体需求下行，欧美经济衰退预期加强。 主要逻辑：供应端来看，供给压力仍处高位；需求端来看，复苏乏力。 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131 2万吨 环比增 ， . ， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅18 2% 同比降幅6 . , | 5% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为26 4262% 环比减少 . 。 . ， | | | | | 4 37个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is expected to decrease as refineries have reduced production recently. The current demand is below the historical average level, and the overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The cost is expected to strengthen in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices, and the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Specifically, the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The output of sample enterprises was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average level, and the asphalt processing loss has increased [8]. - **Basis**: On November 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. Social inventory continued to decline, while in - plant and port inventories continued to increase [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Due to the reduction in refinery production, the supply pressure has decreased. The demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. With the rising crude oil prices, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term, and the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts on the previous day, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on weekly inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price was 3032 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices of asphalt in different regions [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships among different energy products [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the price changes of asphalt in the Shandong region [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which helps in understanding the profit differences between different asphalt - related products [42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report presents the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **开工率**: The report presents the historical weekly 开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and factory inventory (54 sample enterprises) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical inventory ratio of factory inventory from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [86][90][93]. - **Asphalt 开工率**: It shows the historical 开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [96][99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is experiencing a "anti-involution" self-discipline movement, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and potential investment opportunities as the industry recovers from prolonged losses [1][2] Group 1: Industry Actions - Various segments within the chemical sector are actively pursuing self-discipline actions, such as polysilicon leading companies forming a consortium to store capacity, caprolactam reducing production to support prices, and the organic silicon industry promoting self-regulation [1][2] - The polysilicon sector plans to establish a fund of approximately 70 billion yuan to eliminate excess capacity and address accumulated industry debts, which is expected to drive up silicon material prices [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - The chemical industry has been in a bottoming phase for over two years, with profitability at historical lows, but new capacity investments are nearing completion, indicating a potential turning point by 2026 [1] - The organic silicon industry has seen continuous improvement in supply-demand conditions this year, with expectations for further enhancement next year, as previous negative factors have been largely mitigated [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The chemical sector presents left-side layout opportunities, particularly in leading companies with cost advantages and reasonable valuations in segments like soda ash, coal chemical, and titanium dioxide, which are characterized by high energy consumption and a significant proportion of outdated capacity [2]

专题报告 2025-11-12 钢材：钢铁周期的下半场，产量约束与需求复苏的边界 报告要点： zhao3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 黑色金属研究 | 钢材 1.供应端趋严：从行政压减到利润驱动的自发收缩 过去几年，中国钢铁行业经历了由高景气到深度调整的周期转折。伴随房地产投资持续下行、 基建拉动效果递减、制造业订单波动，钢材需求整体进入低位震荡区间。与此同时，供给端的 产量趋于市场化，短流程产能扩张与长流程减量共存，使行业产量逐步趋于平稳。当前，钢铁 周期将随着宏观环境宽松进入"下半场"，有望在产量约束与需求复苏的动态再平衡。 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 赵 航（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 2021 年以来，"以产定供"已成为钢铁行业的常态化政策导向。粗钢压减政策连续 四年实施，虽然近几年间对于政策的执行力度略有差异，但总体方向明确：通过控 制总量来稳定市场和碳排放。各地在产能置换和能耗约束方面的政策不断趋严，新 建项目审批周期延长，使得钢铁总产量进入阶段 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 32.95 billion yuan, down 29.01% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 3.69 billion yuan, down 158.38% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is focusing on regaining market share in its home province and adjusting its product strategy to stabilize prices and reduce inventory [1][3]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 53.52%, down 12.72 percentage points year-on-year, due to increased promotional activities and a decline in product mix [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 180.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 34.26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 39.75 billion yuan, down 53.66% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company expects revenue and net profit to continue to decline in 2025, with projected revenues of 195.6 billion yuan, 200.1 billion yuan, and 211.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -32.3%, +2.3%, and +5.7% [3][4]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 39.8 billion yuan, down 40.3% year-on-year, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [3][4]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on mid-range and high-end products while enhancing consumer engagement through promotional activities in banquet scenarios [1][3]. - The company aims to stabilize its revenue by adjusting its product offerings and focusing on local market dynamics, with expectations of a gradual recovery in demand [1][3]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 26.8 for 2025 and 26.4 for 2026, indicating a cautious outlook on future earnings [3][4]. - The company has a projected dividend yield of 6.6%, providing a safety margin for investors [3][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The propylene market is under pressure, and the pattern of high supply and weak demand is difficult to change. In the absence of strong cost pull and significant improvement in demand, the market drive will return more to fundamental logic. The follow - up needs to closely monitor OPEC+ production policies, the actual impact of winter energy demand on propane and coal prices, and changes in downstream demand [3][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In October, the center of propylene prices moved down overall. The propylene futures 2601 contract fell below 6,000 yuan/ton on October 21. After the National Day, the supply increased due to the restart of PDH units, and the cost support of PDH - made propylene weakened. In late October, the sanctions on Russian oil companies by the US led to a rebound in international oil prices and drove up propylene prices. However, high supply and inventory suppressed the price, and it dropped at the end of the month [2]. - In October, the average load of domestic propylene units was 78.47%, an increase of 1.34% compared to September. Although some units were under maintenance, the overall load remained high. The production in September decreased by 110,000 tons to 5.52 million tons compared to August, and it was expected to rebound in October. The demand was weak due to the low operating rate of polypropylene, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose [8]. 2. Market Outlook - Supply side: OPEC+ is expected to maintain a small increase in production, which may lead to a long - term supply surplus of global crude oil. Domestic propylene load is expected to remain at a high level of about 78%, and the restart of large - scale units in November and December will further increase supply [3][27][52]. - Cost side: The cost support may show a differentiated trend. The long - term supply surplus of crude oil may make the support of oil - based cost unstable. The seasonal increase in propane's combustion demand in winter may support CP prices and slow down the decline of PDH process costs, but its impact on propylene prices depends on downstream acceptance [3][52]. - Demand side: The recovery of demand is not optimistic. The operating rate of polypropylene, the largest downstream product, remains low, and the poor profit situation of most downstream derivative industries is difficult to improve in the short term [3][52]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Consolidation in a range [5][53]. - Arbitrage: 1 - 2 reverse spread [5][53]. - Options: Double - selling options [5][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 was 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year-on-year. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week was 33.0777%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points from the previous week. The overall demand is below the historical average level, and the cost support is expected to weaken in the short term. It is predicted that the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the strengthening expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In terms of supply, refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week. In terms of demand, the current demand is below the historical average. In terms of cost, the daily processing profit of asphalt increased by 30.70% compared with the previous period, the loss of asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. The short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On October 29, the spot price in Shandong was 3280 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 6 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory and factory inventory continued to be destocked, while port inventory continued to accumulate, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increased, showing a bullish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 3252 - 3296 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [17]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [20]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [23]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt with SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [26]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the price ratio trend of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [30]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [33]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the profit trend of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [39]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [44]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the price of Marey crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [51]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the asphalt production of refineries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [54]. - **开工率**: The report shows the weekly utilization rate of asphalt production capacity, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss volume, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [59]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the situation of exchange warehouse receipts, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [62]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the trends of social inventory and factory inventory, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [66]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the factory inventory - to - stock ratio, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [69]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [72]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: The report shows the import spread trend of Korean asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [77]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the production of petroleum coke, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [78]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption of asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [81]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Related Indicators**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [84]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, domestic excavators, and road rollers, as well as the monthly working hours of excavators, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [88]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Utilization Rate**: The report shows the utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [93]. - **Asphalt Utilization Rate by Purpose**: The report shows the utilization rates of construction asphalt and modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [96]. - **Downstream Utilization Situation**: The report shows the utilization rates of shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [103].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Due to high inventory and persistent supply surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [3] - With increasing production schedules and slower - than - expected demand recovery, stainless steel prices are forecasted to stay in a weak oscillation, but recent policy guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the results of China - US trade talks need to be observed [5] Market Analysis of Nickel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,830 yuan/ton and closed at 120,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 68,844 (- 7,491) lots, and the open interest was 58,658 (- 1,803) lots [1] Influence of Macro Data - China's macro data for the first three quarters showed that the GDP in Q3 was 3.545 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8% (previous value: 5.2%), and other data indicated a situation of "strong supply and weak demand", causing Shanghai nickel prices to oscillate weakly [1] Nickel Ore Situation - The trading atmosphere in the nickel ore market was fair, and prices remained stable. The Eramen mine in the Philippines launched a new tender. In the Philippines, the shipping volume from the Surigao mining area decreased, while northern mines started to load and ship. Downstream iron plants, with reduced profits, were cautious in purchasing nickel ore. In Indonesia, the supply of the nickel ore market remained abundant. The domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium was + 26, with a premium range of + 25 - 27. Due to the approaching rainy season, Indonesian factories had low enthusiasm for raw material procurement despite production pressure [1] Spot Market - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was fair, and the spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,868 (- 174) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 (- 54) tons [2] Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [3] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel Market Data - On October 20, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,620 yuan/ton and closed at 12,595 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 124,780 (+ 7,866) lots, and the open interest was 198,194 (- 4,171) lots [3] Influence of Macro Data - The real estate investment growth rate widened by 1 percentage point to - 13.9%, and the overall industry was still at the bottom - building stage. The recovery of stainless steel demand remained a long - term task [3] Spot Market - The market trading continued the light situation of the previous week, and prices remained basically stable. Under the pressure of sales, there were occasional lower quotes. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 390 - 690 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 938.0 yuan/nickel point [3] Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Neutral - Other strategies (cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, but refineries have recently reduced production to alleviate supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and the weakening of crude oil prices will lead to a short - term weakening of cost support. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise output was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries have reduced production, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the开工 rate of construction asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. All are below the historical average levels, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; inventory is neutral with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing; the disk is bearish as the MA20 is downward and the 11 - contract futures price is below the MA20; the main position is bullish as the main position is net long but the long position is decreasing. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 12 contracts, showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 - contract price decreased by 57 yuan to 3248 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.72%. In terms of inventory, social inventory decreased by 1.31% to 1058,000 tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is important for spread trading strategies [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the price dynamics in the spot market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for refineries to make production decisions [38][39][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the supply situation in the market [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical inventory of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [46][47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the production activity level [56][57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the delivery and storage of futures contracts [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025, which reflects the overall inventory situation in the market [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of factories [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industries [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: It presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which helps to analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92]. - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate, asphalt 开工 rate by use, and downstream 开工 situation (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt 开工 rate, road - modified asphalt 开工 rate, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt 开工 rate) from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production activity level of the asphalt industry [93][94][96][97][98][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 - September 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, driven by a weak US dollar and supply shortages. Macroscopically, the US government's shutdown and weak employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. Fundamentally, supply shortages in copper mines, such as the ongoing shutdown of the Grasberg mine and disruptions in other mines, have strengthened the support for copper prices. The主力 is advised to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely, with the main contract closing down 0.28%. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the supply was abundant. The supply pressure persisted, with high domestic operating capacity and increasing overseas production. The demand was weak, with electrolytic aluminum plants having high raw material inventories and low procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the short - term spot price of alumina will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the main contract moving up to around 21,000 yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro factors such as the US government shutdown and expectations of Fed rate cuts. In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum production declined slightly in September, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. The demand showed structural characteristics, with some sectors improving but high aluminum prices suppressing downstream orders. After the holiday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the spot premium was under pressure. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices strengthened with the rise of aluminum prices, and the SMM spot ADC12 price also increased. The cost was supported by the rise of LME aluminum during the holiday and the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, and the demand showed a mild recovery but with limited volume. The domestic social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the import loss expanded. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract operating between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices maintained a strong operation, supported by low inventory and a weak US dollar. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the US government shutdown led to a weak US dollar index. Domestically, the supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The "strong outside, weak inside" pattern of zinc prices has been obvious since the second half of 2025. The short - term price of Shanghai zinc may rise due to macro - driving factors, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. It may maintain an oscillation pattern, with the main contract between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - Tin prices strengthened. The supply of tin ore remained tight, with low processing fees for smelters. Domestic tin ore imports in August were at a low level, and the crackdown on illegal tin mines in Indonesia before the holiday increased supply concerns. The demand was weak, with insufficient orders in the solder industry due to the sluggish consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. The follow - up depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar. If the supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [9]. Nickel - After the holiday, the nickel market showed a strong trend, driven by macro - sentiment and the overall boost of the non - ferrous sector. The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of the Fed's rate - cut path affected the market. In the industry, the policy expectations for the Indonesian nickel ore end have increased. The nickel ore price remained firm, but the nickel - iron market was sluggish, and the demand for stainless steel was weak. The demand for nickel sulfate was good in the peak season, but there were concerns about new production capacity and sustainable demand in the medium term. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, the stainless steel market rose slightly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the chromium - iron market was driven by demand and cost. The supply pressure was increasing, with an expected increase in steel production in September. The demand improvement was not obvious, and the social inventory decline was slow. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - On the first trading day after the holiday, the lithium carbonate market oscillated. The main contract LC2511 rose 0.27%. The supply - side news included the approval of mining reports by Guoxuan High - tech and the acquisition of a mining license by Zangge Mining. The fundamentals were in a tight balance during the peak season. The production increased last week, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. The demand was optimistic, with expected increases in iron - lithium and ternary orders. The whole - chain inventory continued to decline last week, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream seasonal restocking. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 85,740 yuan/ton, up 3.00% from the previous day. The premium/discount of SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained unchanged at 15 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed varying degrees of increase, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. In August, electrolytic copper imports were 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased, and the operating rates of copper rod production decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The premium/discount decreased. Alumina prices in various regions declined. The import loss of aluminum increased, and the monthly spread showed different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of some aluminum processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions increased by about 0.95 - 0.96%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions also increased. The monthly spread showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased. The operating rates of some enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The import loss decreased slightly, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. In August, refined zinc imports increased by 43.30%. The operating rates of zinc - related industries decreased slightly, and the inventory of zinc showed different changes [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose to 284,200 yuan/ton, up 2.53%. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased significantly [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased slightly. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of tin decreased in different markets [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread changed [11]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased slightly, while imports decreased. The inventory in different markets showed different trends, with an increase in LME inventory [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the monthly spread changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while imports increased and exports increased slightly. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, and the price of lithium - spodumene concentrate decreased. The monthly spread changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased, and the demand also increased. The inventory decreased in different links, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [14].