盈利预测与投资建议 口子窖 603589.SH 公司研究 | 中报点评 控货稳价业绩承压，静待需求复苏 核心观点 ⚫ 根据 25 年中报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率。我们预测公司 2025-2027 年每股收 益分别为 2.23、2.16、2.37 元（原预测 25-26 年为 3.17、3.54 元）。结合可比公 司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 17 倍市盈率，对应目标价为 37.91 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 省内竞争加剧风险、渠道变革不及预期风险。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,962 | 6,015 | 4,929 | 4,859 | 5,298 | | 同比增长 (%) | 16.1% | 0.9% | -18.0% | -1.4% | 9.0% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2,326 | 2,280 | 1,837 | 1,779 | 1,947 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the recent production arrangement of refineries has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted, and the weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short - term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3634 - 3680 [7][9] - The cost side indicates that the loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production is 2539000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 23.4%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 34.2761%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.359 percentage points. The refineries have increased production recently, raising supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7] - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.8%, the construction asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, the modified asphalt开工率 is 14.5509%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 25%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 28%. Except for a slight increase in the modified asphalt开工率, the others are either flat or decreased [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 524.18 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 7.60%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 875.78 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.48%. The loss of asphalt processing has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3634 - 3680 [9] - **Other Factors**: On July 21, the Shandong spot price is 3855 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 198 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1319000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.53%. The in - plant inventory is 761000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.26%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 210000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 22.22% [10] 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Base - price Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt base - prices from 2020 to 2025 [19][20] - **Spread Analysis**: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32] 3.3 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [37][40] - **Supply - side Analysis**: It involves aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Marrow crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume estimation [44][46][49] - **Inventory Analysis**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and in - plant inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71] - **Import and Export Situation**: It presents the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79] - **Demand - side Analysis**: It covers petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, downstream machinery demand), and asphalt开工率 (by type) [80][83][86] - **Supply - demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to July 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104][105]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand, but in the short - term, the market's previously optimistic environment continues, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] - Precious metals maintain a strong and volatile pattern and continue the upward trend; non - ferrous metals maintain a mild increase; black commodities rise; energy prices follow the external market to rise; chemicals rise slightly; agricultural products rise gently [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 0.79%. Black and precious metals had relatively large increases of 1.79% and 1.25% respectively, while agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemicals rose by 0.54%, 0.36%, and 0.18% respectively [1][5] - Among specific varieties, the top gainers were rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore with increases of 2.57%, 2.56%, and 2.23% respectively, and the top losers were soda ash, LPG, and PTA with decreases of 1.84%, 1.74%, and 1.42% respectively [1] - The funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][6] 2. Outlook - The market focused on the passage of the US fiscal bill, tariff issues, and the signals of China - EU cooperation. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] 3. Sub - sectors Analysis Precious Metals - Gold is supported by factors such as the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Global central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves strengthens its asset - allocation value. Silver is driven by gold but has weaker elasticity due to its industrial attributes [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The market is boosted by the improvement of macro - expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. Copper, aluminum and other contracts rise slightly, but the rebound is limited by the short - term fundamentals [2] Black Commodities - Rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore and other varieties rise, driven by the improvement of downstream construction, the increase in steel出库 data, and the expectation of infrastructure and real - estate policies in the third quarter. Iron ore is also supported by the decline in port inventory [2] Energy - Crude oil prices rise following the external market, driven by OPEC+ production - cut policies and the increase in US summer travel demand. Domestic crude oil futures and related products also rise, although high inventory still has some suppression [3] Chemicals - The overall chemical market rises slightly. Products like plastics and PP rebound mildly, and PTA and ethylene glycol rise due to upstream cost support. However, the slow recovery of downstream demand restricts the upward momentum [3] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product sector rises gently. Some oil and fat varieties perform well, and the uncertainty of crop growth due to hot weather also supports the market [3] 4. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally have positive returns, with a total scale of 1,554.56 billion yuan and a 1.48% increase. The total scale of commodity ETFs is 1,615.16 billion yuan with a 1.20% increase [34]

Group 1 - Silver and platinum prices have surged, with silver reaching a high of $36.263 per ounce, the highest since February 2012, and platinum hitting $1172.59 per ounce, the highest in nearly two years [1][2] - Year-to-date, silver has increased by approximately 24% and platinum by 28%, comparable to gold's performance [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating tariff policies, and recovering demand, alongside technical factors driving price increases [1][2] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106 when gold prices surged to $3500 per ounce, prompting hedge funds to shift positions from gold to silver [2] - Historical trends indicate that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, silver has a 70% probability of experiencing a price increase, with expectations of returning to a more reasonable range of 60-70 [2] - Strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China are contributing to the market's upward momentum [2][3] Group 3 - Economic recovery is expected to significantly boost industrial demand for silver, which is essential in various sectors such as electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive manufacturing [3] - Silver's role in clean energy technologies provides a solid fundamental support for its price increase [3] - Current market analysis suggests that silver's upward trend is likely to continue until a significant risk event disrupts the price trajectory [3]

Group 1: Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a gradual bottoming out, with improvements in sales, wholesale prices, and financial performance, indicating a potential upward turning point if demand stabilizes [2][3] - Major liquor companies are enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends, buybacks, and shareholdings, which adds to investment safety margins [3] Group 2: Liquor Sector Analysis - In Q1 2025, liquor companies reported revenue and net profit growth rates of +1.8% and +2.3% respectively, with a notable improvement in performance metrics compared to Q4 2024 [2] - The overall price stability of premium liquor brands has been maintained, with reduced price declines compared to 2024, reflecting strategic adjustments by leading companies [2] Group 3: Beer Sector Analysis - In the first quarter of 2025, beer production decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with expectations for overall production to remain flat or slightly decline for the year [4] - The beer industry is projected to see a 1%-2% increase in price per ton, with stable sales volume and a decrease in cost per ton by approximately 1%-1.5% [4] - Leading beer companies are maintaining a healthy competitive environment, focusing on balanced growth in sales and financial quality while exploring new growth opportunities in non-beer sectors [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 45.58 [7][8] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at RMB 14.2 million (down 49.7% YoY) and net profit at RMB 0.1 million (down 97.7% YoY) [1] - The company is currently focused on inventory destocking, and it is anticipated that external demand recovery will take time to reflect in performance [4] - The company is deepening its market presence in the province and building model markets outside the province, while optimizing consumer activities [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 2.3 million (down 66.2% YoY) and a net profit of -RMB 0.4 million [1] - For Q1 2025, revenue was RMB 3.4 million (down 30.3% YoY) and net profit was RMB 0.3 million (down 56.8% YoY) [1] - The gross margin for 2024 decreased by 7.0 percentage points to 71.4%, attributed to a decline in product structure [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company’s product lines, including the "Neican" and "Jiugui" series, have seen significant revenue declines, while the "Xiangquan" series showed a modest increase of 7.6% [2] - The company is focusing on maintaining brand value and controlling inventory to stabilize prices, with a strategic emphasis on core products [2] Future Outlook - The report projects a continued focus on inventory destocking and expects external demand recovery to drive performance improvements in the future [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 10% and 18%, respectively, due to anticipated market conditions [4][13]