Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Angel Yeast (600298) with a target price of 58 yuan [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 16.729 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.08%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.544 billion yuan, up 16.6% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a significant revenue acceleration, achieving 4.942 billion yuan, a 15.35% increase year-on-year, driven by domestic demand recovery and the consolidation of Shengtong Sugar Industry [1]. - The company anticipates double-digit revenue growth for 2026, supported by the recovery of the domestic market and cost reductions, with a projected profit increase of 23.3% [1]. Financial Summary - **2025 Financial Performance**: - Total revenue: 16,729 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 10.1% - Net profit: 1,545 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 16.6% - Earnings per share: 1.78 yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio: 23 times [1][9] - **2026-2028 Financial Projections**: - Revenue projections: 18,698 million yuan (2026E), 20,716 million yuan (2027E), 22,652 million yuan (2028E) - Net profit projections: 1,904 million yuan (2026E), 2,193 million yuan (2027E), 2,415 million yuan (2028E) - Earnings per share projections: 2.19 yuan (2026E), 2.53 yuan (2027E), 2.78 yuan (2028E) [1][9]. - **Cost and Profitability**: - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 22.7%, slightly down by 1.43 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the lower-margin sugar business [1]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2025 was 8.86%, maintaining stability despite slight fluctuations [1]. Market Performance - The company has shown resilience in its market performance, with a significant increase in both domestic and international sales, particularly in Q4 2025 [1]. - The number of domestic and international distributors increased, indicating steady progress in market expansion [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry operation often experiences a temporary deterioration before improvement. The short - term global zinc demand forecast is moderately lowered, but in the medium - to - long - term, the impact of high oil prices on the overseas zinc supply will be significantly greater than the suppression of domestic demand [3]. - The zinc price is approaching the domestic zinc smelting break - even point. Production cuts by major mines such as OZ may lead to a substantial risk of ore shortage, and there may be unexpected production cuts in the second quarter [3]. - The views in the annual report have been verified: the interference rate at the ore end has increased, some ore increments cannot smoothly enter the market, and the复产 progress of overseas smelters has been postponed [3]. - The annual report expectations have been adjusted: the Middle East geopolitical conflict may reshape the global zinc product trade flow, with ore sources concentrated in China and China's export advantage continuously expanding [3]. - The core contradiction in the current zinc market may have shifted from "demand recovery" to "supply transfer and export premium under the reconstruction of the supply chain" [3]. - Trading strategies: - Unilateral: The forecast for the annual high of the zinc price is lowered, but the zinc price is still expected to perform well in the second quarter. Even if the Middle East conflict escalates further and the global "recession" expectation materializes, the zinc price will show a resistant decline rather than a "collapse - like decline" due to the cost support from the smelting end [3]. - Inter - period arbitrage: In the peak season and with the risk of production cuts, pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai zinc in the second quarter [3]. - Inter - market arbitrage: Given the uncertainty of trade flow changes in the current internal - external price difference, it is recommended to carefully evaluate the applicability of this strategy [3]. - Inter - commodity arbitrage: The zinc - aluminum price ratio has reached a historical low, and short - term regression opportunities should be noted [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Focus - At the macro level, since the war between the US and Iran, the Middle East situation has triggered an energy crisis, driving up oil prices and costs. High interest rates have suppressed growth expectations, leading to a tug - of - war between "stagflation" and "recession" expectations. The core logic of the commodity market has shifted from a single "global recession trade" to "deep differentiation under multiple narratives" [5]. - The pricing power of ferrous metals (steel) lies within China, trading on the peak - season demand in China's "Golden March and Silver April" and cost support. Non - ferrous metals are dominated by the game between global macro expectations and geopolitical supply shocks. Chemical products are essentially processed from crude oil, trading on cost transmission. Agricultural products are affected by independent climate cycles and planting areas, and are basically independent of the macro logic of industrial products [5]. - Since the conflict between the US and Iran broke out on February 28, 2026, the market's expectations have changed several times. As of March 19, the market has shifted from worrying about "stagflation" to "recession", and non - ferrous metals have fallen panic - stricken [6]. - From the Polymarket trading data, the market's expectations for the US - Iran cease - fire and the US recession can be observed. As of March 21, the probability of a cease - fire in June has dropped to 50%, and the probability of a US recession within the year is 36%. The current market trading main line is: soaring oil prices → rising inflation expectations → hindered Fed rate cuts (or even rate hikes) → slowing economic growth. There are three possible paths to refute "stagflation" [8]. Industrial Focus Ore End - Many overseas mining companies have significantly lowered their production guidance. The expected overseas zinc ore increment in 2026 is sharply reduced to 24,000 tons, while the domestic expectation remains unchanged. The significant reduction in overseas mine production and the circulation problems of major domestic ore increments may lead to a substantial ore shortage for domestic smelters in the second quarter [17][19]. - The cash cost structure of zinc mines is different from that of copper mines. The energy cost accounts for a relatively moderate proportion in zinc mines, and the TC and transportation costs are the largest cost items. Zinc mines are less sensitive to energy price fluctuations than copper mines [22]. Smelting End - European zinc smelters have been operating at a low level due to power supply shortages and high costs in 2025. Currently, their smelting profits are still in the red. The power cost accounts for 50% - 70% of the total cost. The recent sharp rise in electricity prices in European countries may delay the复产 of European zinc smelters in 2026 or even lead to further production cuts, resulting in a "chronic low - operation" pattern [25][26]. - As of now, 6 European smelters with a total capacity of 924,000 tons (about 7% of the global zinc ingot production) have unclear electricity price agreements. The risk of production cuts in Belgian and French smelters is relatively high [28]. - The proposed Asian zinc concentrate Benchmark TC in 2026 is 85 US dollars per dry ton, with two key terms adjusted. However, the probability of this extreme clause being implemented is low because the smelting end has limited tolerance for the terms, and the supply of raw materials for Asian smelters is expected to be looser [30]. Demand - The consumption structure of zinc terminals is changing. The demand proportion of the real estate sector is decreasing, while that of the new economy is increasing. Due to the significant increase in oil prices, the demand for the automotive sector (especially fuel - powered vehicles) will be affected first, followed by machinery and equipment manufacturing, traditional infrastructure, real estate, and home appliances. The demand for photovoltaics, wind power, and UHV will benefit from the substitution effect. The annual zinc market balance sheet is moderately adjusted, and the domestic terminal demand growth rate forecast is lowered by 0.23 percentage points to 1.40% [31][32]. - In 2025, China's galvanized sheet exports increased by 12.82% year - on - year. Although there are still profit - pressure and trade frictions, the core position of galvanized steel in steel exports is stable. In the long - term, if oil prices remain stable at around 80 US dollars per barrel, China's energy security, low - cost, and full - industrial - chain advantages in the zinc downstream will be re - evaluated globally, and overseas orders are expected to return on a large scale [35]. - The zinc demand growth rates of some overseas countries are lowered. The overall overseas zinc demand growth rate in 2026 is lowered by 1.1 percentage points to 0.7% [36]. Balance Sheet Overview - From the perspective of element circulation, the supply - demand balance sheets of zinc ore, primary zinc, recycled zinc, refined zinc, and zinc elements are constructed and quantitatively calculated [40]. - By analyzing monthly data, it is predicted that the global refined zinc demand growth rate will be slower than the supply growth rate in the first half of 2026, and the zinc price may face downward pressure after the spring market. In the second quarter, the zinc price is expected to rebound strongly due to the increasing risk of production cuts in the domestic zinc smelting end and the low base of zinc demand in the second quarter of last year [45]. - By observing the year - on - year growth rates of supply and demand, it is found that the overseas zinc element dynamic balance is most closely related to the zinc price. In 2026, the overseas terminal demand growth rate is expected to exceed the supply growth rate, so the zinc price center is expected to rise [50]. - In 2026, the global zinc ore balance is expected to be slightly in surplus by 57,200 tons, with the domestic supply increasing by 100,000 tons and the overseas supply increasing by 190,000 tons. The global smelting demand (including losses) will increase by 200,000 tons, mainly from China. The zinc processing fee (TC) is expected to rise slightly, and the operating pressure of domestic zinc smelters will be relieved [52]. - The global primary zinc supply has been in short supply for a long time. The shortage is filled by recycled refined zinc. Based on the prediction of the 2026 domestic primary zinc balance, the zinc price center is likely to rise [56]. - In the overseas recycled zinc market, the supply of high - quality raw materials is in short supply. In the domestic market, the production of recycled zinc elements is expected to grow by about 2.36% in 2026, but the supply of recycled raw materials is limited [57][58]. - After adjusting the data for 2025 and 2026, the global refined zinc balance has changed from surplus to a tight balance in 2025, and this tight balance will continue in 2026. In 2026, the global refined zinc supply growth rate is 1.82%, and the demand growth rate is 1.85%. The domestic supply growth rate is 3.26%, and the demand growth rate is 3.04% [60][61]. - By analyzing the difference between the zinc consumption of the processing end and the terminal, it is expected that the export of domestic zinc primary processing products will increase significantly in 2026, driving the domestic zinc element supply - demand to maintain a tight balance. The overseas zinc primary processing sector may be in a relatively surplus state [63]. Structural Opportunities - According to the monthly supply - demand balance sheet, the zinc market may experience accelerated inventory reduction in the second quarter of 2026. Due to the low zinc price, the expected production cuts by smelters, and the support of the peak - consumption season, the zinc monthly spread is expected to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunities [67]. - The current "loose domestic and tight overseas" supply - demand differentiation in the zinc market has been fully priced. The Middle East geopolitical situation may impact overseas zinc demand, and China's zinc downstream industry advantages will be re - evaluated globally. In the short - term, it is recommended to avoid internal - external positive spread arbitrage [70]. - In the short - term, attention should be paid to the structural opportunity of the zinc - aluminum price ratio repair. Recently, the zinc - aluminum price ratio has dropped to a 15 - year low. After the relevant expectations are realized, the ratio is expected to rebound. In the long - term, the zinc - aluminum price ratio will show a downward trend [73]. Supply - Demand Data Ore End - In January 2026, the global zinc ore production was 1.0104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.67% or 45,000 tons. From January to February 2026, China's zinc concentrate production was 438,100 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.96% or 39,700 metal tons. It is expected that the domestic zinc concentrate production will increase by 270,000 tons, the overseas production will increase by 24,000 tons, and the global production will increase by 294,000 tons in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [77]. - From January to February 2026, China's cumulative zinc concentrate imports were 1.0088 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.53%. The top five import sources were Australia, Peru, Russia, Congo, and South Africa [80]. Smelting End - In January 2026, the global zinc ingot production was 1.1564 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.68% or 19,100 tons. From January to February 2026, China's primary zinc production was 930,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.64% or 97,000 tons, and the recycled zinc production was 102,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.75% or 17,600 tons. It is expected that the global refined zinc production will increase by 230,000 tons in 2026, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.82% [84][86]. - From January to February 2026, China's net imports of refined zinc were 22,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 66.64%. It is expected that the net imports of zinc ingots will recover significantly in the second half of 2026 [89].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polypropylene market this week showed an oscillating and repeated trend, with prices trending strongly but with increased volatility. Affected by relevant negotiation news, prices had a phased decline, but due to strong support from the supply side, they remained at a relatively high level. The supply side is contracting, with device maintenance and restarts co - existing, and the shortage of raw materials and subsequent maintenance expectations further strengthen the supply contraction logic. The demand side is generally in a recovery state, with some sectors seeing a recovery in demand, but some industries still have weak demand, dragging down the overall recovery rhythm. In the short term, it presents an oscillating and slightly strong pattern [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Review - This week, the polypropylene price oscillated repeatedly. As of the 26th, the national average price of drawn wire was 9,028 yuan/ton, a rise of 181 yuan/ton from last week, with a growth rate of 2.05%. Frequent changes in the news led to increased volatility in the market. Due to the geopolitical conflict not being alleviated, the overall trend was strong. During the week, due to news of the US - Iran negotiation, the crude oil and polypropylene market declined, but the supply side still provided support, and the price was still at a high level compared to before the conflict. The weekly fluctuation range was 8,650 - 9,300 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 722,700 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons from last week, a decline of 0.71%, and a decrease of 9,300 tons compared to the same period last year, a decline of 1.27%. During the week, the first phase of Juzhengyuan and the second line of Jinneng resumed operation, but some devices such as Zhongsha, Zhongying, Zheshihua, Zhenhai, Maoming, and Baofeng stopped. The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene this week was 69.99%, a 0.51% decrease from the previous week. Next week, it is expected that some devices such as the second line of Guangdong Petrochemical, Zhong'an United, Liaoyang Petrochemical, and the third line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will have maintenance plans, and Zhongsha Tianjin is expected to restart. Currently, although the geopolitical situation has not further escalated, the problem of raw material supply shortage still exists, and the maintenance of oil - based polypropylene continues to increase [3]. Demand - The average operating rate of the polypropylene downstream industry is generally on the rise. Benefiting from the peak season support of "Golden March and Silver April" and the approaching Tomb - sweeping Festival, the terminal demand has entered a concentrated recovery period. The orderly development of spring plowing has driven the sharp increase in the demand for fertilizer, seed packaging, and agricultural plastic wrap, which in turn has promoted the increase in the demand for agricultural woven bags. The recovery of packaging demand in the food, daily chemical, express logistics and other fields has also helped the demand and operating rate of the BOPP and CPP industries to rise. However, the demand of some industries is still weak, dragging down the overall recovery rhythm. The PP non - woven fabric industry is affected by the warming weather, and the demand for diapers and medical disposable supplies has slowed down. The modified PP industry is in the off - season, and the demand related to automobiles and home appliances is limited [4]. 利好 and 利空 - **利好**: Geopolitical factors support costs as the continuous escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the intensification of the US - Iran confrontation, the attack on Iranian gas fields, and the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up international crude oil prices, providing strong cost support for PP. There is a strong expectation of supply contraction as some domestic PP devices are under maintenance, the expected maintenance loss in April is expected to further increase, coupled with the tightening of raw material supply in the Middle East, the downward pressure on the operation of PDH devices, and the reduction of domestic supply due to the export peak season. The downstream has marginal improvement and inventory reduction as the operating rate of the PP downstream has continued to rise this week, and the inventory has shown a phased reduction, with the overall inventory pressure being controllable [5]. - **利空**: The spot demand is weak, and the high - price suppression effect is significant. Although the downstream operating rate has increased, the rapid rise in PP prices has compressed downstream profits, and downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of high - price sources, resulting in weak spot transactions, showing a divergence pattern of "violent futures fluctuations and weak spot follow - up". There is an expectation of some device restarts. Some PDH devices have restart plans this week. If the devices restart smoothly, it will relieve the supply shortage to some extent, suppress prices to a certain degree, and the substitution effect of recycled materials still exists, diverting part of the demand for primary PP and restricting the upward price space [5]. 后市展望 - In the short term, the polypropylene market is affected by multiple factors and presents an oscillating and slightly strong pattern [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week. The supply schedule is increasing, but it remains at a low level [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 69,000 tons, a 1.47% week-on-week increase. The demand recovery is at a low level. Different downstream sectors have varying inventory and profit situations [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, remaining flat week-on-week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Expectation: Industrial Silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,515 - 8,695 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 19,000 tons, remaining flat week-on-week. The scheduled output for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: The overall demand shows a continuous decline. Different downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different production and inventory trends [9][10]. - Cost: The average production cost of N-type polysilicon is 40,260 yuan/ton, with a profit of 240 yuan/ton [9]. - Expectation: Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 34,705 - 36,755 yuan/ton [10]. Overall Market - Bullish factors include rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production [12]. - Bearish factors include slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market [13]. - The main logic lies in capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: 78,000 tons last week, flat week-on-week [6]. - Demand: 69,000 tons last week, up 1.47% week-on-week. Different downstream sectors have different inventory levels and profit conditions. For example, polysilicon inventory is high, while organic silicon inventory is low [6]. - Cost: Xinjiang sample oxygenated 553 production cost is 9,769.7 yuan/ton, flat week-on-week. Dry season cost support increases [6]. - Basis: On March 24, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 545 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 553,000 tons, up 0.18% week-on-week; sample enterprise inventory is 197,800 tons, up 0.36% week-on-week; major port inventory is 136,000 tons, up 1.49% week-on-week, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closes above MA20, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Expectation: Supply schedule increases, but remains at a low level; demand recovery is at a low level; cost support increases. Industrial Silicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 8,515 - 8,695 yuan/ton [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Output was 19,000 tons last week, flat week-on-week. The scheduled output for March is 84,900 tons, a 10.25% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Different downstream sectors have different trends. For example, silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state, but the scheduled output for March is increasing. Battery cell and component production are currently profitable, and the scheduled output for March is also increasing [9]. - Cost: The average production cost of N-type polysilicon is 40,260 yuan/ton, with a profit of 240 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On March 24, the price of N-type dense material was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 6,770 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, indicating a bullish trend [9]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 344,000 tons, down 3.64% week-on-week, but still at a historically high level, indicating a bearish trend [9]. - Market: MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closes below MA20, indicating a bearish trend [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions, indicating a bullish trend [10]. - Expectation: Supply schedule continues to increase; overall demand shows a continuous decline; cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2605 is expected to fluctuate between 34,705 - 36,755 yuan/ton [10]. Market Overview - Industrial Silicon: Different contracts show different price changes. For example, the 01 contract price increased by 1.27% to 9,150 yuan/ton. Social inventory increased, and some sample enterprise production decreased [15]. - Polysilicon: Different contracts also show different price changes. For example, the 05 contract price increased by 0.83% to 35,730 yuan/ton. Weekly total inventory decreased by 3.64% to 344,000 tons [16]. Downstream Market Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained stable at 68.6%. The weekly output was 45,100 tons, a 5.87% increase compared to the previous week. The monthly inventory was 58,500 tons, a 23.94% increase compared to the previous month [15]. - Downstream Products: The prices of products such as 107 glue, raw rubber, silicone oil, and D4 remained stable [15]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Supply: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable at 24,400 yuan/ton. The import profit improved, with the actual immediate profit increasing from - 2,400 yuan/ton to - 2,117 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory and Output: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 30.99% to 209,300 tons, and the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 41.31% to 358,000 tons. The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 7.24% to 53,800 tons [15]. Polysilicon Downstream - Silicon Wafers: The weekly output was 11.78 GW, a 1.66% decrease compared to the previous week. The inventory was 276,500 tons, a 2.46% decrease compared to the previous week. The scheduled output for March is 49.01 GW, a 10.70% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Battery Cells: The February output was 37.09 GW, a 10.49% decrease compared to the previous month. The weekly inventory of the external sales factory was 6.79 GW, a 16.66% increase compared to the previous week. The scheduled output for March is 46.36 GW, a 24.99% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Components: The February output was 29.3 GW, a 16.76% decrease compared to the previous month. The expected output for March is 41.39 GW, a 41.26% increase compared to the previous month. The domestic monthly inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76 GW, and the European monthly inventory increased by 12.30% to 38.41 GW [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The rebar market is expected to maintain a volatile and moderately strong pattern. The rebar main contract is running strongly above the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. In the future, it will mainly follow the spot price to repair the basis. With the arrival of the peak season, the fundamentals are in a state of demand recovery and inventory reduction, which supports market sentiment. Geopolitical events affect cost changes and export expectations. However, continuous attention should be paid to the downstream resumption progress and inventory reduction speed [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures price**: On Tuesday, the position of the rebar main contract decreased by 87,899 lots, and the trading volume shrank compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 618,964 lots. The daily moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3,139, and the daily line is above the medium - term 30 - day moving average of 3,095 and the 60 - day moving average of 3,115, indicating that the short - and medium - term trends are strengthening [1]. - **Spot price**: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area is 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - **Basis**: The futures price is at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the spot price [2]. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation** - **Supply side**: In the week of March 19, 2026, the rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 80,300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 228,800 tons. The steel mill's resumption of production is moderate, and the supply - side pressure on prices is limited [3]. - **Demand side**: In the week of March 19, 2026, the current apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 312,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 349,100 tons. Seasonal resumption of work drives the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak year - on - year. The intensity of demand recovery is the core variable in the follow - up [3]. - **Inventory side**: The social inventory is 6.5321 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,400 tons, starting to reduce inventory slightly. The steel mill inventory is 2.362 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,200 tons, also starting to reduce inventory. The total inventory is 8.8941 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,600 tons, entering the weekly inventory reduction for the first time, which verifies the start of demand. However, the absolute inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio are still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [3]. - **Cost and profit**: The steel price valuation is at a low level. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3]. - **Macroeconomic aspect**: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress held on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as "issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", "arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds", and "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy" to stabilize growth. The market's expectation of infrastructure and real estate support has increased, and the sentiment has received phased support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors driving up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support repair [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Persistently weak terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slowdown in inventory reduction speed, and bearish capital position structure [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish trend. The market is currently in a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a significant recent rebound in apparent demand and the arrival of the seasonal peak season. The overall production has contracted, which supports prices. However, the high inventory level restricts the upside space to a certain extent. Attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory reduction progress [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Price**: The hot-rolled coil futures main contract reduced its open interest by 44,974 lots on Friday, with a trading volume of 276,514 lots, showing a contraction compared to the previous trading day. In terms of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average of around 3,303 in the short term, but is above the 30-day moving average of 3,252 and the 60-day moving average of around 3,270 in the medium term [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai is reported at 3,290 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between the futures and the spot is -7 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply Side**: The actual weekly production is 3.0021 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 49,500 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 241,200 tons. The resumption of production by steel mills is moderate, and the supply contraction compared to the same period last year is obvious, so the supply side exerts limited pressure on prices [4]. - **Demand Side**: The apparent consumption is 3.1051 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 151,500 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 201,400 tons. The resumption of work in the manufacturing industry has driven the rebound of apparent demand, but it is still weak compared to the same period last year. The intensity of demand recovery is the core variable in the follow - up [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory is 3.7633 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 59,800 tons and a year-on-year increase of 522,800 tons. The social inventory has been reduced for the first time on a weekly basis, but the absolute quantity is still much higher than that of last year. The steel mill inventory is 849,600 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 43,200 tons, and the pressure has been relieved. The total inventory is 4.6129 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 103,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 513,900 tons. It has ended the inventory accumulation stage and entered the inventory reduction stage, but the total inventory is still at a high level. The entry into the weekly inventory reduction for the first time verifies the start of demand, but the absolute quantity of social inventory and the inventory - to - sales ratio are still at a high level, suppressing the upward space of prices [4]. - **Policy Side**: On March 5, 2026, the National Two Sessions were held. The government work report proposed to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arrange special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan to strengthen the support for infrastructure and "two new" projects, boosting the medium - and long - term confidence of the market. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and there is no substantial improvement in downstream orders. It still takes time for the policy to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, and it is difficult to reverse the pattern of high inventory in the short term [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support, supply contraction, demand resilience, policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and stronger raw materials [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Slow realization of demand, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating a projected increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [44]. Core Insights - In January-February 2026, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 860.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, marking a 1.9 percentage point increase from December 2025 [2][11]. - The growth in retail sales is driven by both essential and discretionary consumption categories, with significant improvements noted in the sales of tobacco, alcohol, furniture, and jewelry [3][39]. - Online retail sales for the same period totaled 325.46 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 37.81% of total retail sales [4][34]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales for January-February 2026 were 860.79 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which is an improvement from the previous month's growth rate [2][11]. - Retail sales of goods increased by 2.5%, and restaurant income rose by 4.8%, both showing significant month-on-month recovery [12][13]. Segment Analysis - Essential consumer goods showed steady growth, with food and daily necessities increasing by 10.2% and 6.6%, respectively. Discretionary items like tobacco (+19.1%) and jewelry (+13.0%) also saw notable growth [3][17]. - Among 16 categories of goods, 13 experienced positive growth, while three categories (petroleum products, automobiles, and construction materials) reported negative growth [3][17]. Online Retail Performance - Online retail sales reached 325.46 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2%. The physical goods segment of online sales was 208.12 billion yuan, growing by 10.3% [4][34]. - Categories such as food, clothing, and household items saw substantial growth rates of 20.7%, 18.0%, and 4.7%, respectively [37]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes for 2026: 1. Service consumption expansion and quality improvement, particularly in travel and dining sectors [39][42]. 2. Emotional consumption and the rise of domestic brands, emphasizing collectibles and local cosmetics [39][42]. 3. Recovery in demand for food and beverage sectors, with a focus on undervalued stocks in the liquor and dairy industries [39][42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends, supply - demand situations, and market outlooks of various non - ferrous metals and new energy - related products. It also provides trading strategies for key varieties such as lithium carbonate and tin [34][37]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约CU2604 closed at 100310 yuan/ton on March 13, 2026, down 740 yuan (-0.73%) from March 6. The average price of 1 copper in Shanghai spot was 100570 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan (-0.54%) [4]. - Aluminum: The futures主力合约AL2605 closed at 25070 yuan/ton on March 13, up 285 yuan (1.15%) from March 6. The average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai spot was 25110 yuan/ton, up 670 yuan (2.74%) [4]. - Zinc: The futures主力合约ZN2604 closed at 24140 yuan/ton on March 13, down 120 yuan (-0.49%) from March 6. The average price of 0 zinc in Shanghai spot was 24120 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (-0.17%) [4]. - Lead: The futures主力合约PB2604 closed at 16555 yuan/ton on March 13, down 220 yuan (-1.31%) from March 6. The average price of 1 lead ingot was 16425 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan (-1.05%) [4]. - Nickel: The futures主力合约NI2605 closed at 136930 yuan/ton on March 13, down 210 yuan (-0.15%) from March 6. The average price of 1 electrolytic nickel was 141350 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan (0.60%) [4]. - Alumina: The futures主力合约AO2605 closed at 2956 yuan/ton on March 13, up 124 yuan (4.38%) from March 6. The alumina price in Foshan spot was 2700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.75%) [4]. - Industrial silicon: The futures主力合约SI2605 closed at 8675 yuan/ton on March 13, down 15 yuan (-0.17%) from March 6. The average price of 553 silicon was 9500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan (1.06%) [4]. - Lithium carbonate: The futures主力合约LC2605 closed at 152080 yuan/ton on March 13, down 4080 yuan (-2.61%) from March 6. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) was 158350 yuan/ton, up 3550 yuan (2.29%) [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约PS2605 closed at 42040 yuan/ton on March 13, up 925 yuan (2.25%) from March 6. The price of N - type polysilicon material was 46000 yuan/ton, down 3000 yuan (-6.12%) [4]. - Tin: The futures主力合约SN2604 closed at 374110 yuan/ton on March 13, down 19550 yuan (-4.97%) from March 6. The average price of 1 tin in Shanghai spot was 386800 yuan/ton, down 10250 yuan (-2.58%) [4]. 3.2 Copper Inventory Trends in Major Exchanges - LME copper inventory was 31.24 million tons on March 13, 2026, up 3.02 million tons (10.70%) from March 6 [16]. - COMEX copper inventory was 59.22 million tons on March 13, down 0.75 million tons (-1.25%) from March 6 [16]. - SHEF copper inventory was 43.35 million tons on March 13, up 0.84 million tons (1.98%) from March 6 [16]. 3.3 Processing Fees of Copper and Tin Concentrates - As of March 13, 2026, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 57.2 US dollars/ton, with a slight weekly decline, remaining at an extreme historical negative value. The spot RC of copper concentrate was - 5.72 cents/pound, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [20]. - Since March, the processing fees of 60 - grade tin concentrates in Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Hunan have all increased by about 2000 yuan, indicating that the supply - side tension has passed and the pricing logic has changed [26]. 3.4 Lithium Spodumene Concentrate Index - As of March 13, 2026, the latest quote of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was 2210 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars/ton weekly [23]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metal Demand Side - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2%. From January to February, automobile production and sales were 4.122 million and 4.152 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% and 8.8% [29]. - From January to February 2026, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.735 million and 1.71 million vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and 6.9%. The new energy vehicle sales accounted for 41.2% of the total new vehicle sales [29]. - In 2025, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The new housing start - up area was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. The housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1% [31]. - As of the end of 2025, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 16.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.2 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 35.4%, leading in growth rate; the installed capacity of wind power was 640 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.9% [33]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendations 3.6.1 Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures showed wide - range fluctuations this week. The主力2605 contract closed at 152080 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 2.61% and an amplitude of 16.19%. The price center has moved down. The supply has increased as some upstream salt factories have resumed production after maintenance. The demand has increased with the 55% year - on - year growth of national lithium iron phosphate production from January to February. The inventory has been decreasing but at a slower pace. The export ban on unprocessed lithium minerals in Zimbabwe has had an impact. In the short term, it may maintain wide - range fluctuations, and the geopolitical situation should be closely monitored [34]. - Short - term: Double - top suppression is obvious, and it may maintain wide - range fluctuations. - Medium - to - long - term: Focus on the actual demand fulfillment [35]. 3.6.2 Tin - The Shanghai tin主力2604 contract fell 4.97% this week, closing at 374410 yuan/ton. Indonesia's tin production quota in 2026 has increased significantly compared with 2025, and the resumption of production in Myanmar has accelerated. The current tin price is still relatively high, and downstream orders have decreased significantly. The domestic tin ingot social inventory has been accumulating. In the short term, it is weakly running. In the future, the core variables are the supply increase from Myanmar and Indonesia and the downstream demand, especially in the photovoltaic and AI fields [37]. - Short - term: Weakly running. - Medium - to - long - term: Pay close attention to the actual downstream demand and new policy guidance [38].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, bookings increased significantly by 42% sequentially and 35% year-over-year, indicating early signs of demand recovery [3][4] - Q4 revenues declined to $923 million, reflecting weaker shipment volumes and a full-year revenue decline to $3.8 billion [4][5] - Adjusted operating loss for Q4 was $16 million, including $40 million in gross tariff costs, while full-year adjusted operating profit was $16 million [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas drove the increase in bookings, particularly in core counterbalance Class 5 trucks in the 1-3.5 ton range [8] - Despite overall market challenges, North America showed meaningful sequential improvement in bookings, while EMEA and JAPIC experienced demand contraction [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global lift truck market faced year-over-year declines across all regions and truck classes, with North America being the exception showing recovery [7][8] - Backlog at the end of 2025 totaled $1.28 billion, with a sequential decline primarily due to lower unit volumes [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational efficiency, disciplined cost management, and product innovation to navigate the challenging market environment [12][14] - Strategic initiatives include a company-wide restructuring program targeting $40 million-$45 million in annualized savings beginning in 2026 [15] - The introduction of modular and scalable platforms aims to strengthen long-term competitive positioning [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2026, anticipating stronger performance as the year progresses due to improving bookings and aging fleets driving replacement demand [20][22] - The company expects moderate full-year operating profit, with a small loss in the first half followed by stronger revenue and profit improvement in the second half [17][18] Other Important Information - Tariffs remain a significant external factor, with forecasted costs expected to remain consistent with Q4 2025 levels throughout 2026 [16][17] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to range from $55 million to $75 million, focusing on product development, IT infrastructure upgrades, and manufacturing optimization [19][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the pent-up demand dynamic and potential for fleet replacements? - Management noted that customers are transitioning from conserving cash to ensuring operational needs are met, with a focus on counterbalance trucks [25][27] Question: Update on new product launches and automation? - New products are being launched, including modular electric counterbalance trucks, with automation solutions in pilot phases showing positive results [31][32] Question: Summary of bookings and market trends? - Bookings in Q4 were driven by North America, while other regions remained stable with a shift towards smaller, price-competitive products [38][40] Question: CapEx guidance and spending rationale? - CapEx is focused on product development, IT upgrades, and optimizing manufacturing footprint to enhance capabilities [49][50] Question: Progress in penetrating the warehouse segment? - The company has improved its market share in the warehouse segment, with new product launches and safety systems aimed at enhancing customer engagement [53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q4 2025, bookings increased significantly by 42% sequentially and 35% year-over-year, indicating early signs of demand recovery [3][4] - Q4 revenues declined to $923 million due to weaker shipment volumes, while full-year revenue for 2025 was $3.8 billion, reflecting a challenging operating environment [4][5] - Adjusted operating loss for Q4 was $16 million, including $40 million in gross tariff costs, while full-year adjusted operating profit was $16 million [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas drove the increase in bookings, particularly in core counterbalance Class Five trucks in the 1 to 3.5 ton range [7][8] - Despite overall market challenges, North America showed meaningful sequential improvement in bookings, contrasting with declines in EMEA and JAPIC regions [6][7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global lift truck market faced year-over-year declines across all regions and truck classes, with North America showing signs of recovery [6][9] - Backlog at the end of 2025 totaled $1.28 billion, with a sequential decline driven by lower unit volumes [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational efficiency, disciplined cost management, and product innovation to navigate the challenging market environment [11][12] - Strategic initiatives include modular product development, manufacturing footprint optimization, and enhancing customer engagement [12][14][15] - The company aims to be a first mover when demand recovers, with a focus on cash generation and long-term value creation [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for 2026, anticipating stronger performance as the year progresses, driven by improving bookings and aging fleets [17][21] - The company expects moderate full-year operating profit, with a small loss in the first half followed by stronger revenue and profit improvement in the second half [17][18] Other Important Information - Capital expenditures for 2026 are expected to range from $55 million to $75 million, focusing on product development, IT infrastructure upgrades, and manufacturing optimization [19][46] - Tariff costs are anticipated to remain consistent with Q4 2025 levels throughout 2026, with mitigation efforts expected to contribute more meaningfully starting in Q2 2026 [16][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the pent-up demand dynamic and potential for fleet replacements? - Management noted that customers are transitioning from conserving cash to ensuring operational needs are met, with a focus on counterbalance trucks [25][26] Question: Update on new product launches and automation? - New products are being launched, including modular and scalable platforms for electric counterbalance trucks, with automation solutions in pilot phases [30][31] Question: Summary of bookings and market trends? - Bookings increased in North America, while other regions remained stable, with a shift towards smaller, more price-competitive products [36][37] Question: CapEx guidance and spending rationale? - CapEx is directed towards product development, IT upgrades, and optimizing manufacturing capabilities [46][47] Question: Progress in penetrating the warehouse segment? - The company has made progress in the warehouse market, launching new trucks and enhancing safety systems to improve market share [49][50] Question: Impact of automation and lithium-ion on margins? - Automation and lithium-ion solutions are expected to significantly increase revenue and margins, with higher capability sensors and systems involved [57][58]