期货研究报告 2026年03月02日 周报 关注因素：美国最新经济数据、地缘政治变动、节后需求复苏 | | 单位 | 本周最新 | 上周同期 | 周度环比 | 周度环比 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 变化量 | 变化率 | | | 电解铜价格（≥99.95%）：上海 | 元/吨 | 101970 | 100275 | 1695 | 1.69% | 周度 | | 电解铜升贴水（≥99.95%）：上海 | 元/吨 | -250 | -5 | -245 | -4900.00% | 周度 | | 干净铜精矿远期现货综合指数（TC计） | 美元/干吨 | -51.06 | -51.17 | 0.11 | 0.21% | 周度 | | 无氧铜杆价格 | 元/吨 | 103090 | 101270 | 1820 | 1.80% | 周度 | | LME铜库存 | 吨 | 253700 | 241825 | 11875 | 4.91% | 周度 | | SHFE铜库存 | 吨 | 391529 | 272475 | 119054 | ...

研究报告 – 烧碱报告 2026 年 2 月 金融研究院 研究报告-烧碱月报 报告日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 范阿骄 : F3054801 投资咨询证号： Z0016954 节后需求边际改善， 烧碱市场企稳向好 从业资格号 2026 年 2 月，烧碱市场结束 1 月单边下行态势， 进入供需博弈下低位企稳、基差修复 的震荡阶段。 核心逻辑从高供应 + 高库存 + 弱需求的三重压力， 转向 库存去化与节后需求复苏的博弈。 供给端，行业产能利用率维持高位，但边际压力较 1 月缓解，部分企业响应库存压力小幅降负，产量呈现 小幅波动回落特征，以氯补碱 模式仍支撑企业维持 较高生产负荷。需求端，氧化铝行业高开工提供核心 需求底盘，非铝下游随节后复工呈现季节性复苏，华 东印染厂开机率逐步回升，整体需求边际改善。 3 月市场有望延续震荡回升态势，核心看点在于需求 复苏强度与库存去化节奏。策略上建议以逢低做多为 主，关注基差修复机会，同时警惕下游开工不及预 期、新增产能集中投放等潜在风险。 一、市场回顾：供需博弈下低位企稳，基差修复信号初现 2026 年 2 月烧碱市场延续 1 月弱势格局，但在成本支撑与边际需求改善 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶期价有望偏强上行 宝城期货 陈栋 得益于全球天然橡胶供应季节性收缩、国内需求复工预期以及成本端支撑等利多因素共振驱动，节后 归来首日，国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现震荡上行的走势，期价大幅收涨 3.90%至 17030 元吨，创去年 3 月以来新高。基于短期偏多氛围支撑，预计后市国内沪胶期货或维持震荡偏强的走势。 胶市供应处在年内偏低水平 供应端收紧是本轮沪胶上涨行情的核心支撑。当前全球天然橡胶进入季节性低产周期，东南亚主产国 泰国、印尼、马来西亚处于减产季节，胶水产出偏少、原料价格持续坚挺。泰国前期降雨影响原料产出， 叠加局部扰动因素，产量同比下降，出口量阶段性收缩，国际市场供应偏紧格局进一步确认。据天然橡胶 生产国协会（ANRPC）最新发布的 1 月报告显示，2025 年 12 月天胶生产国协会成员国合计产胶量达 112.78 万吨，月环比小幅减少 4.36 万吨，同比小幅减少 16.44 万吨，降幅达 12.72%。2025 年 1-12 月天胶生产国 协会成员国合计产胶量达 1152.02 万吨，较去年同期的 1163.27 ...

市场快讯---"两会"期间钢厂生产管 控，短期利多盘面，中期看需求复苏。 2026年2月25日 Ø 2026年两会开幕时间为2026年3月4日。 Ø 华北部分钢企已接到通知，要求3月4日一3月11日执行 阶段性减排管控，高炉负荷按不低于30%比例自主减排， 并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况，制定专 项减排执行方案，按要求上报备案。本次管控以自主减 排、错峰生产为原则，聚焦高炉等重点排放工序，通过 合理调控炉况、优化检修计划、调整排产节奏等方式落 实减排目标，保障会议期间空气质量稳定。 Ø 影响：通知将造成区域内粗钢供给阶段性收缩，实际供 给减量或低于市场预期。市场可能提前消化减排预期， 加上节后首个交易日螺卷深跌，预计短期盘面较大幅度 反弹。中期仍关注终端需求复苏。若两会期间下游工地 开工、制造业采购未达预期，库存去化缓慢，将抵消供 给收缩的利好，导致价格冲高回落。 Ø 策略：早班车提示的逢低布局多单策略，继续持有，止 数据来源：文华财经 损线不断上移。 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格 F3066027 交易咨询：Z0011402 联系电话（010）56711796 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses macroeconomic narratives impacting various sectors, particularly focusing on demand recovery, currency dynamics, interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on market performance. Key Points Demand Recovery Narrative - Demand expectations are stable, with no signs of a turning point anticipated until 2026; if a turning point were to be identified, it would be considered to have occurred in 2022 or 2023 [1][2] Dollar Credit Loss - The dollar is entering an observation period, with no other currency currently presenting a strong appreciation narrative; the narrative surrounding the dollar's depreciation is expected to weaken in its influence on other assets [1][2] Interest Rate Narrative - The market has not priced in any interest rate cuts for January, with expectations indicating that no cuts will occur in March; future developments will depend on the testimony of Waller, who has previously expressed hawkish views during the Obama administration and dovish views during the Trump administration; if Waller does not exhibit hawkish tendencies in his upcoming testimony, the market may begin to price in the possibility of interest rate cuts [1][2] Geopolitical Narrative - There have been no fundamental changes in geopolitical risks; oil and precious metals continue to be supported by ongoing tensions, particularly regarding Trump's potential actions towards Iran [2][3] AI Narrative - There is a belief that 2023 will be a year for validating AI performance; if AI companies fail to meet market expectations, they may face significant pressure; however, proponents of AI believe the narrative surrounding AI is substantial and transformative [3]

BMO资本市场分析师法迪·沙蒙今日将联合包裹股票评级下调至"与大盘持平"，目标价96美元。"需求复 苏仍难以实现，尤其是在重要的B2B领域。美国贸易政策的转变，包括取消小额豁免，进一步加剧了宏 观挑战。"与此同时，联合包裹的降本努力进展慢于预期。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 BMO资本市场分析师法迪·沙蒙今日将联合包裹股票评级下调至"与大盘持平"，目标价96美元。"需求复 苏仍难以实现，尤其是在重要的B2B领域。美国贸易政策的转变，包括取消小额豁免，进一步加剧了宏 观挑战。"与此同时，联合包裹的降本努力进展慢于预期。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is weak, with expectations for steel prices to decline as demand remains subdued and winter storage is nearly complete [4][6][17] - Nationally, 30 provinces have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth [4][15] - Excavator sales in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, indicating strong demand in the construction sector [4][15] Group 2 - The average capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 48.12%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week, but an increase of 44.85 percentage points year-on-year [5][16] - Total inventory of five major steel products increased by 4.6% week-on-week to 13.38 million tons, while weekly consumption decreased by 5.1% [5][16] - Rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons week-on-week to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory rising by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons [6][17] Group 3 - Hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons [7][18] - The iron ore transaction volume on February 9 was 638,000 tons, a decrease of 19.4% week-on-week, reflecting a slowdown in market activity as the Spring Festival approaches [4][15] - The production of iron alloys remains under pressure, with prices fluctuating and demand from steel mills not meeting expectations [9][20]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-02-03 有色恐慌杀跌，关注下游买盘 铜观点：美元指数反弹，铜价⼤幅回落。 氧化铝观点：减产预期博弈过剩现实，氧化铝价震荡运⾏。 铝观点：资⾦情绪反复，铝价⼤幅回调。 铝合⾦观点：盘⾯跟随铝锭，价格有所回落。 锌观点：有⾊板块杀跌，锌价⾼位回落。 铅观点：有⾊板块承压但成本⽀撑较⾼，铅价震荡下⾏。 镍观点：有⾊板块集体回调，镍价⼤幅下挫。 不锈钢观点：镍价⼤幅回调，不锈钢盘⾯⾛弱。 锡观点：市场情绪偏弱，锡价延续调整。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊观点：有⾊恐慌杀跌，关注下游买盘 交易逻辑：据财联社消息，1月美联储利率决议符合预期，鲍威尔称接下 来降息路径仍取决于经济数据表现，这给降息预期改善提供了空间，但特 朗普提名的下届美联储主席出乎市场预期，投资者对沃仕印象解读为鹰 派，美元指数快速反抽，贵金属杀跌引发有色整体恐慌，资金短期大幅撤 离，整体上看，宏观面预期出现反复，关注美联储降息预期变化。原料端 延续偏紧局面；冶炼端仍有扰动预期，整体供应端支撑 ...

期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)中国1月RatingDog制造业PMI回升至50.3，制造业维持扩张态势。 库存方面，采购库存连续第二个月上升，企业为满足生产需求补充原材料；产成品库存则连续第三个月 下降，主要因订单发货消耗了存货。价格方面，在成本压力持续积累下，制造业企业自2024年11月以来 首次上调出厂价格，出口收费同步上升，且调价速度为近一年半最快，部分企业开始尝试将成本压力向 客户传导。原材料价格连续第七个月上涨，1月涨幅为2025年9月以来最快，金属类价格上升尤为明显， 本轮贵金属驱动的大宗商品牛市行情延续，且暂未见顶。 整体看，1月制造业扩张态势得以延续，内外需边际回暖，成本向价格的传导初现，就业与采购活动小 幅改善。然而商业信心下滑，制造业整体增长动能仍属微弱，复苏基础尚不牢固。未来数月，若成本压 力持续而需求复苏力度有限，企业盈利空间仍将承压，制造业可能延续低增速扩张格局。政策层面需关 注稳需求与降成本之间的平衡，财政发力支撑'两重两新'政策的延续，或在一定程度上巩固制造业的修 复势头。" 从分项指标看，从业人员分项的改善是驱动本月PMI扩张的主要因素，就业改善主要源于新订单增加及 生产需求的上升 ...

Core Viewpoint - On January 29, a rare event occurred in the market where resource-related LOFs, including oil LOFs from E Fund and Jiashi, experienced a collective surge, leading to multiple products hitting the daily limit up. Many of these products announced a suspension of trading starting January 30 [1][9]. Group 1: Performance of LOFs - Several LOFs showed strong performance on January 29, with multiple products quickly reaching the daily limit up during trading, indicating high premium rates. By the end of the day, products such as E Fund Oil LOF, Jiashi Oil LOF, and others had hit the limit up [4]. - The top-performing LOFs included E Fund Oil LOF with a rise of 10.03%, Jiashi Oil LOF at 10.03%, and the Oil Fund LOF at 10.02% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The surge in oil-related LOFs is attributed to a combination of factors, including tight QDII quotas, low subscription limits, and investors utilizing the "offshore subscription + onshore selling" arbitrage mechanism. Additionally, rising international oil prices and heightened risk aversion contributed to the premium of oil LOFs [5][6]. - As of January 29, WTI crude oil futures reached $65.002 per barrel, marking a 2.83% increase and the highest level since September 2025 [6]. Group 3: Fund Suspension and Adjustments - Following a week of rapid price increases, multiple fund companies announced the suspension of resource-related LOFs starting January 30 to alert the market of potential risks. This includes the suspension of trading for the Oil Fund LOF until 10:30 AM on January 30 [9][10]. - Starting January 30, the daily subscription limit for the Oil Fund LOF was drastically reduced from 100 yuan to 2 yuan, while other resource LOFs also implemented similar restrictions, leading to a scarcity of available quotas for investors [7][11].