行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 07 月 12 日 通胀叙事航运板块与大宗共振，船 价企稳推荐中国船舶、苏美达 看好 ——申万宏源交运一周天地汇(20250706-20250711) 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 证券分析师 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230524100007 liuyy@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearc ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience and strategic foresight of Chongyang Investment, a well-established private equity firm, in navigating market fluctuations and capitalizing on opportunities in the innovative pharmaceutical sector [2][3]. Investment Strategy - Chongyang Investment's chairman, Wang Qing, highlights the importance of understanding industry trends and adapting to changes in the investment ecosystem, advocating for a flexible trading approach driven by in-depth research [3][4]. - The firm has identified significant growth potential in China's biopharmaceutical industry, which has experienced a downturn for four consecutive years, suggesting a mean reversion effect [4][5]. Market Outlook - Wang Qing expresses optimism about the Chinese economy's transition and the emergence of structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and new consumption [3][5]. - The A-share market is expected to present ongoing structural opportunities, with a notable recovery in market liquidity and economic expectations [6][8]. Performance and Results - As of June 20, the innovative pharmaceutical index has risen over 45%, validating Chongyang Investment's strategic left-side positioning in the sector [4]. - The firm’s long-term commitment to value investing and market trends has resulted in significant returns, demonstrating the effectiveness of their investment philosophy [5][9]. Team and Management Approach - Chongyang Investment employs a multi-manager model, allowing several fund managers to operate independently within a single fund, enhancing decision-making and risk management [9][10]. - The firm has expanded its research team, focusing on sectors such as pharmaceuticals, new energy, advanced manufacturing, and electronic technology, to strengthen its investment research capabilities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of 18 "cold potential stocks" in the A-share market that have experienced three consecutive years of decline, attracting institutional investors who see potential for recovery and growth [1][4]. Group 1: Selection Criteria for "Cold Potential Stocks" - The stocks selected have shown a consistent decline over three years, indicating a lack of market interest, possibly due to industry cycles or company-specific issues [3]. - Three hard indicators were used for selection: - Performance must be solid, with a projected net profit exceeding 300 million in 2024 and maintaining over 30 million in Q1 2025 [3]. - At least five institutions must give a "buy/increase" rating, with a consensus forecast of over 30% net profit growth for the year [3]. - The time dimension is crucial, as three years of decline have eliminated short-term speculative investors, leaving only fundamental value players [3]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The power equipment industry has the highest representation among the selected stocks, attributed to: - A reversal in industry cycles, where previous expansions in renewable energy (solar, storage, wind) have led to a more optimized competitive landscape and genuine profit realization [5]. - A surge in demand driven by AI computing needs and renewable energy, with overseas orders for wind and solar energy showing signs of recovery [5]. - Institutions view the prolonged decline in stock prices as an opportunity for medium to long-term investments, as improved performance and growth rates present a favorable risk-reward scenario [6]. Group 3: Notable Stocks and Their Potential - Three standout stocks were highlighted: - Rongsheng Petrochemical, with 15 institutions recommending a buy and a projected net profit growth of nearly 300%, benefiting from a recovering refining industry [7]. - Gujia Home Furnishing, characterized by a low price-to-earnings ratio and strong institutional backing, with growth projections considered conservative [7]. - Jianyou Co., a pharmaceutical company with significant growth potential driven by its dual focus on heparin raw materials and biopharmaceuticals [7]. - Common traits among these stocks include solid performance, significant institutional interest, and strong industry fundamentals [8].

港股煤炭红利会否迎来季节效应？20250618 摘要 港股通红利 6 月跑赢港股通指数概率约为 60%，受益于分红抢筹和风险 偏好提升的季节性因素，但 2025 年美国关税和新兴产业驱动减弱对市 场风险偏好产生扰动。 煤炭股息率仍具吸引力，但需关注基本面韧性。当前煤炭板块拥挤度低， 是左侧布局机会，需关注其他红利资产见顶和险资等长期资金增量。 港股优于 A 股，因 AH 溢价率高企及南下资金流入，DPC 科技机会亦集 中于港股。未来配置需关注 AH 溢价率、资金流向及科技产业链发展。 AH 溢价率是红利股择时指标，当溢价率达 125%时，港股吸引力下降， 资金或回流 A 股。关注两地税后股息率差异是有效监测指标。 煤炭行业节奏把握可参考 AH 折价率及税后股息率息差，关注煤价反转 迹象和外资持仓。港股定价更市场化，或先于 A 股出现左侧布局机会。 港股红利股 6 月和 10 月季节效应明显，但 2025 年受关税和新兴产业 驱动减少影响，6 月表现优于往年。关注煤炭板块调整结束及反弹持续 性。 港股税后股息率达 A 股 1.25 倍，具投资价值。煤炭板块调整后具安全 边际，若外资增量流入，是左侧布局信号。关注 ...

电力｜心中有底，持股不慌 20250518 摘要 近期港口动力煤价格每吨下降 14 元，目前现货价格约为 620 到 630 元。焦煤 价格本周再降 30 元，多种品种创今年新低。在此背景下，一些地方如陕西榆 林、神木及内蒙古鄂尔多斯的民营煤矿出现了主动或被动减产情况，产能利用 率出现拐点。鄂尔多斯日产量从四月的 230 万吨下降至五月的 210 万吨左右， 这表明供应端受到边际影响。此外，北方港口库存从五一后的 3,300 万吨下降 至目前不足 3,000 万吨，这主要由于铁路调运量明显下降，大秦线发运量从 120 万吨降至 109 万吨。 北方港口库存去化过程中有哪些关键因素？ 北方港口库存去化主要因为强调苏港库存问题及电网建设导致铁路调运量明显 下降。目前大秦线周度发运量已降至 109 万吨左右，而此前检修完毕后一直维 持在 120 万吨左右。此外，现在处于点单行情，即只有港口需要某种类型的煤 时才会接受调入，这限制了往港口调入的数量，使得北方港口日均调入量从 200 多万吨降至 170 多万吨，从而实现去库效果。 • 煤炭板块筑底信号显现，尽管五一后煤价下行，但板块未大跌反涨，当前 或是左侧布局窗口期 ...

流动性方面，创业板50ETF嘉实盘中换手1.95%，成交711.32万元。规模方面，创业板50ETF嘉实本月以来规模增长2.51亿元，实现显著增长。份额方面，创 业板50ETF嘉实近1周份额增长200.00万份，实现显著增长。 资金流入方面，创业板50ETF嘉实最新资金净流入89.91万元。拉长时间看，近20个交易日内，合计"吸金"2.47亿元。 值得注意的是，该基金跟踪的创业板50指数估值处于历史低位，最新市净率PB为4.33倍，低于指数近3年85.7%以上的时间，估值性价比突出。 截至2025年4月30日午间收盘，创业板50指数强势上涨1.10%，成分股汇川技术上涨4.83%，润和软件上涨4.17%，网宿科技上涨3.72%，润泽科技、软通动力 等个股跟涨。创业板50ETF嘉实(159373)上涨1.00%。 创业板50ETF嘉实紧密跟踪创业板50指数，创业板50指数由创业板市场中日均成交额较大的50只股票组成，反映了创业板市场内知名度高、市值规模大、流 动性好的企业的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年3月31日，创业板50指数前十大权重股分别为宁德时代、东方财富、汇川技术、迈瑞医疗、阳光电源、中际旭创、 ...

□本报记者 王鹤静 从政策层面来看，尤之奇预计，为实现经济稳增长目标，后续财政政策和货币政策将协同发力，对债市 整体构成利好。"目前来看，短端品种的配置确定性更为突出，"尤之奇分析道，"由于当前资金价格与 政策利率之间的利差仍处于较高水平，未来存在一定的收窄空间；而长端品种的表现可能还要取决于财 政政策的实施力度。" 尤之奇特别强调，央行政策取向与资金面变化仍是影响债市走势的关键因素。在海外不确定性加剧的背 景下，需要重点关注内需政策的推进节奏，以及货币政策的适度宽松举措，包括适时降准降息等。与此 同时，外部不确定性使得投资者风险偏好回落，债券在此阶段或是较好的避险品种。 "后续来看，基本面因素对债市的定价影响力可能重新提升。"尤之奇认为，考虑到短期风险释放使得债 券收益率下行再次达到前期低点附近，预计未来一段时间内，债市存在一定震荡调整的可能；但是，在 降低社会综合融资成本这一政策目标的引导下，债券收益率下行的趋势大概率不会改变。 近期，海外局势复杂多变，对国内股债市场造成一定影响。华富基金固定收益部总监助理、基金经理尤 之奇在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，当前，债券收益率在短期风险释放后已下行至前期低点附 ...