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国泰海通|宏观:财政将如何发力——2026年财政政策展望
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-11-20 12:46
Core Insights - The article emphasizes that the fiscal policy in the first year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will focus on balancing active and sustainable requirements to promote stable growth, improve people's livelihoods, and mitigate risks [1][2] Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2026, the narrow fiscal deficit rate is expected to exceed 4%, with new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion and long-term special government bonds issued at approximately 1.5 trillion [1][3] - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift in expenditure structure towards "people's livelihood," which is linked to the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since the third quarter [2] Revenue and Expenditure Dynamics - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with continued tight constraints [2] - On the expenditure side, broad fiscal spending is expected to moderately expand, with a structural shift towards social welfare and a decline in infrastructure investment contributing to a drag of at least 2 percentage points [2][3] Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy will focus on three key tasks: 1. Promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives 2. Addressing the growth continuity issues due to external demand slowdown 3. Resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [2] Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, three key questions need to be clarified: 1. The scale and path of debt management funding, with around 3 trillion in special bonds needed for debt management and clearing [3] 2. The potential increase in interest payment pressure post-debt replacement, which may rise but remain manageable due to a low interest rate environment [3] 3. The funding sources and performance of infrastructure investment, with an expected growth rate of around 3.5% in 2026 [3] Overall Fiscal Growth Projections - The overall growth rate of broad fiscal spending is projected to be around 4.6% in 2026, with the narrow fiscal deficit rate needing to exceed 4% [3]
2026年财政政策展望:财政将如何发力
Haitong Securities International· 2025-11-20 05:02
Fiscal Policy Overview - The fiscal policy for 2026 aims to balance growth, social welfare, and risk prevention, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate expected to exceed 4%[1] - New local special bonds are projected to be around CNY 4.6 trillion, while ultra-long-term special government bonds may be issued at approximately CNY 1.5 trillion[1] Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In 2025, the fiscal structure shifted towards "people's livelihood," with a mild recovery in revenue but continued constraints[2] - Total broad fiscal expenditure is expected to grow by about 4.6% in 2026, with a focus on social welfare and consumption incentives[5] Infrastructure Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment growth is anticipated to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by debt resolution and effective investment strategies[3] - Approximately CNY 3 trillion in special bonds will be needed for debt resolution and clearing overdue payments in 2026[3] Consumer Spending and Social Welfare - Consumer spending is projected to grow at around 4.5%, supported by policies like trade-in programs and birth subsidies[4] - The expected increase in social welfare spending includes a CNY 1,080 billion rise in pensions and CNY 1,000 billion for birth subsidies, which will stimulate consumption[4] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, sluggish recovery in consumer spending, and rising local debt pressures[5] - The fiscal space may be constrained, impacting the effectiveness of the proposed measures[5]
数字人民币APP上新
Jin Rong Shi Bao· 2025-07-26 10:04
Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasizes boosting consumption as a key task for the year, highlighting the importance of digital currency in enhancing payment convenience and supporting domestic demand [1][11]. Group 1: Digital Currency App Enhancements - The digital currency app has undergone continuous iterations since its launch in 2022, focusing on improving user experience and simplifying payment processes [2][10]. - Recent updates include an optimized bank card binding process, allowing users to link cards from 81 banks, with 27 banks offering a no-input card number feature [2][4]. - A "one-click login" feature has been introduced, enabling users to log in using their mobile number without entering a password or verification code [2][10]. Group 2: Desktop Widget Features - The app now includes a desktop widget that allows users to access frequently used functions such as payment codes and QR scanning directly from their home screen [4][6]. - Users can customize the widget's appearance with various themes, enhancing both functionality and aesthetic appeal [7][10]. Group 3: Consumer Incentives and Marketing - The government and market institutions continue to issue digital currency consumption red envelopes to stimulate consumer spending, aligning with national policies to enhance consumption mechanisms [11][13]. - The app's recent updates improve its marketing capabilities, allowing for a wider range of merchant discounts and promotional activities, enhancing consumer engagement [11][13]. - Digital currency subsidies are reported to effectively boost social consumption and local economic development, with smart contracts ensuring direct and efficient fund distribution [13][14].