Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [7] Core Viewpoints - The war situation continues to heat up, causing a decline in global market risk appetite. Stocks mostly fall, bond yields mostly rise, and the global economy faces increasing stagflation risks [3][10] - The expansion of the Middle - East war to energy facilities drives up oil prices, leading to soaring inflation pressure, increased market expectations of interest rate hikes, and joint pressure from high inflation and high - interest rates on the stock market [4][12] - Central banks in the US, UK, and Europe are cautious about interest rate policies. The Fed is more concerned about inflation than employment in the short term, with a low willingness to cut interest rates. The market's expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the ECB have increased [4][12] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declines. Stocks mostly fall, bond yields mostly rise, with the US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. The US dollar index drops 0.71% to 99.6, non - US currencies show mixed performance, gold prices plunge 10.5% to $4492 per ounce, the VIX index slightly declines to 26.8, the spot commodity index closes down, and Brent crude oil rises 12.2% to $116.2 per barrel [3][10] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stocks mostly fall. The S&P 500 drops 1.9%, the Shanghai Composite Index drops 3.38%, the euro - zone stocks decline, and emerging - market stocks also fall. High inflation and high - interest rates jointly pressure the stock market. Central bank policies and the war situation continue to impact the stock market [11][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.38%. Rising oil prices, hawkish central bank stances, and increased interest - rate hike expectations put pressure on the bond market. The bond yield curve shows a bearish flattening trend. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield rises to 1.84%, and the bond market continues to fluctuate in the short term [15][19][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.71% to 99.6, and non - US currencies show mixed performance. The offshore RMB fluctuates and closes flat, while the euro, pound, yen, and Swiss franc appreciate. The New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, peso, and real also appreciate, while the Thai baht, rupee, rand, and won depreciate [25][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold drops 10.5% to $4492 per ounce, and it is expected to remain weak until volatility decreases. Brent crude oil rises 12.2% to $116 per barrel. The spot commodity index closes down as other commodities are pressured by interest - rate hike expectations [29][30] 3. Hot - spot Tracking - The war situation heats up, and market risk appetite weakens. The conflict between the US and Iran affects energy supply and inflation, leading to increased central - bank interest - rate hike expectations and market panic [31][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: Trump threatens to limit Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours - Tuesday: Denmark holds early elections; Eurozone and US March manufacturing PMI are released - Wednesday: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's January interest - rate meeting are released - Thursday: The Norwegian central bank holds an interest - rate meeting; US initial jobless claims are announced - Friday: China's January - February industrial enterprise profits are released [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "volatile" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold dropped 10% to $4,492 per ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.38%, inflation expectation was 2.38%, real interest rate rose to 1.99%, the US dollar index fell 0.7% to 99.5, the S&P 500 index dropped 1.9%, the offshore RMB was volatile, and the domestic market maintained a premium [2] - The situation in the Middle East has further escalated, increasing global inflation risks and tightening monetary policy expectations. Except for crude oil and agricultural products, industrial products such as precious metals and non - ferrous metals have all declined. Gold has dropped significantly to the previous low level [3] - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in March, with a hawkish statement. The dot - plot shows that the expectation of interest rate cuts has dropped to once. The Fed is more worried about inflation than the job market in the short term, so the willingness to cut interest rates is low. In a stagflation situation, the Fed is in a dilemma. If the market starts to trade that the Fed lags behind inflation, funds may flow into gold again [3] - The Bank of England and the ECB kept interest rates unchanged. The market's expectation of interest rate hikes has further increased, and the market's expectation of an ECB interest rate hike has been advanced to May [3] - The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz and the rhythm of the war will continue to dominate the market trend. The gold price has some support around $4,400 - $4,500 per ounce, but the volatility is high, and there is no obvious expectation of a cease - fire in the market. It is hard to say that the gold price has stabilized, and it is necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The domestic basis (spot - futures) changed from - 1.75 yuan/gram last week to 1.38 yuan/gram this week, with a change rate of - 178.9% [10] - The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) increased from 18.19 yuan/gram last week to 45.36 yuan/gram this week, with a change rate of 149.3% [10] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased from 105,417 kg last week to 106,845 kg this week, with a change rate of 1.4% [10] - The COMEX gold inventory decreased from 32,551,562 ounces last week to 32,054,275 ounces this week, with a change rate of - 1.53% [10] - The SPDR ETF holding volume decreased from 1071.56 tons last week to 1056.99 tons this week, with a change rate of - 1.36% [10] - The CFTC gold speculative net long position increased from 102,236 lots last week to 105,920 lots this week, with a change rate of 3.6% [10] - The US Treasury yield increased from 4.28% last week to 4.39% this week, with a change rate of 2.6% [10] - The US dollar index decreased from 100.50 last week to 99.51 this week, with a change rate of - 0.99% [10] - The SOFR decreased from 3.65% last week to 3.62% this week, with a change rate of - 0.8% [10] - The US 10 - year break - even interest rate increased from 2.3796% last week to 2.3861% this week, with a change rate of 0.27% [10] - The S&P 500 index decreased from 6,632 last week to 6,506 this week, with a change rate of - 1.9% [10] - The VIX volatility index decreased from 27.2% last week to 26.8% this week, with a change rate of - 1.5% [10] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading increased from 7.0 to 7.2 this week, with a change rate of 2.6% [10] - The US 10 - year real interest rate increased from 1.90% last week to 1.99% this week, with a change rate of 5.1% [10] 3.2 Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 3.2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.7%, and the US Treasury yield rose to 4.38% [14] - The S&P 500 dropped 1.9%, and the VIX index fell back to 26.8 [14] - The US overnight secured financing rate was 3.62% [17] - Oil prices rose 12%, and the US inflation expectation was 2.38% [17] 3.2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets declined, with the S&P 500 dropping 1.9% [21] - Most developing - country stock markets declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.38% [21] - The real interest rate rose to 1.99%, and the gold price dropped 10% [22] - The spot commodity index declined, and the US dollar index dropped 0.7% [22] - US and German bonds rose, and the US - German spread was 1.33% [25] - The UK Treasury yield was 4.99%, and the Japanese bond yield was 2.28% [25] - The euro appreciated 1.34%, and the pound sterling appreciated 0.83% [28] - The yen appreciated 0.31%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.39% [28] - The US dollar index dropped 0.71% to 99.6, and non - US currencies had mixed performance [30] 3.3 Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative position data [33] - The SPDR gold ETF holding volume fell back to 1,056 tons [33] - The RMB stopped rising and turned to depreciation, and the domestic market became at a premium [36] - Gold and silver prices declined, and the gold - silver ratio rose back to 66 [36] 3.4 Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: Trump threatened to limit Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours [37] - Tuesday: Denmark held early elections, and the eurozone and the US released March manufacturing PMI [37] - Wednesday: The Bank of Japan released the minutes of its January interest - rate meeting [37] - Thursday: The Norwegian central bank held an interest - rate meeting, and the US released initial jobless claims [37] - Friday: China released industrial enterprise profits for January - February [37]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut after a 9-month period, which has significant implications for the economy [1] - The interest rate cut is seen as a response to pressure from former President Trump, who has been advocating for lower rates to boost the stock market and manufacturing sector [3][4] - The Fed's decision reflects a cautious approach due to the current economic conditions, including a rebound in inflation and rising unemployment [7][8] Group 2 - The interest rate cut is not as substantial as Trump desired, and the median forecast for future cuts suggests potential for two more 25 basis point reductions this year [18] - The cut may open up monetary policy space domestically, potentially leading to increased liquidity in the stock market and stimulating consumer spending [18] - Improved U.S.-China relations are anticipated, which could positively impact trade and economic conditions for both countries [18] Group 3 - The interest rate cut is expected to lead to three main changes: 1. Continued improvement in consumer spending and the stock market, though with increased volatility [19] 2. Better prospects for foreign trade and cross-border businesses, as lower borrowing costs in the U.S. may boost demand for Chinese goods [20][21] 3. More favorable conditions for overseas consumption, as a weaker dollar makes international travel and purchases more affordable [22]

Group 1: Tariff War Developments - President Trump announced plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and weapons, threatening an additional punitive tariff on top of the existing 25% import duty [4] - India's government responded by stating that its oil imports from Russia were a necessary measure to stabilize energy costs for consumers, emphasizing that criticism from the U.S. and EU was unfounded [5] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Impact - Recent U.S. employment data showed a significant miss, with only 73,000 jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000, leading to a rise in unemployment to 4.2% [7][8] - The disappointing employment report has raised concerns about the impact of Trump's tariff policies on U.S. economic growth, with analysts suggesting it could lead to a recession [8] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock markets experienced a sell-off, while gold prices rebounded, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards safe-haven assets [8][10] - Analysts predict that if the U.S. economy continues to weaken, the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts in the second half of the year, which would support gold prices [9][10]