突发！多国央行"新年第一枪"，全球市场2026年开门迎巨震？ 2026年首个交易日，全球金融市场即被多国央行政策的"新年第一枪"点燃。美联储暂停降息、欧洲央行释放鹰派信号、日本央行加息落地，叠加中东地缘冲 突升级，全球股市、汇市、大宗商品市场剧烈震荡。这场由货币政策分化主导的"开门黑"，不仅暴露了全球经济复苏的脆弱性，更预示2026年市场将进入高 波动、强博弈的新周期。全球央行"三向分化"：政策路径撕裂市场共识1. 美联储：降息暂停，通胀黏性成"紧箍咒"2025年末美联储连续第三次降息后，12月 议息会议释放明确转向信号：联邦基金利率维持在3.50%-3.75%，点阵图显示2026年仅预期降息1-2次。尽管失业率升至4.1%，但核心PCE通胀仍高于2.5%， 叠加特朗普政府关税政策推高进口成本，美联储主席鲍威尔坦言"需警惕二次通胀风险"。市场对美联储政策转向的预期迅速逆转，美元指数反弹至104.5， 十年期美债收益率单日飙升12个基点。2. 欧洲央行：鹰派突袭，欧元强势归来欧洲央行12月18日宣布维持利率不变，并意外上调2026年经济增长预期至 1.2%，释放"通胀黏性或需加息"的鹰派信号。欧元区12月CPI ...

Group 1 - The latest Beige Book reveals a stark divide in the U.S. consumer market, with high-income groups maintaining luxury spending while middle and low-income families struggle [1] - Retail sales are declining in 9 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts, with Cleveland auto dealers expecting a 12% drop in sales and Seattle clothing retailers seeing a 19% decrease in foot traffic [1] - High-income consumers are increasing spending on luxury travel and private healthcare by 8%, while middle and low-income households are shifting to warehouse stores like Costco, with grocery spending reaching a historical high of 34% [1] Group 2 - Credit card delinquency rates have risen to 3.2%, and the percentage of auto loans overdue by more than 30 days has reached 4.7%, the highest since 2010 [3] - The trade policies from the Trump administration have led to a "cost-price-demand" vicious cycle, with Starbucks facing a 12% profit margin squeeze due to increased coffee bean tariffs [4] - Detroit automakers are incurring an additional $1.8 billion in costs due to steel tariffs, leading to layoffs of 23,000 workers and extended new car delivery times to 8 months [4] Group 3 - The labor market appears stable with a 5.2% unemployment rate, but there is a deterioration in job quality, with a loss of 136,000 full-time jobs and an increase of 98,000 part-time jobs [5] - There is a significant skills mismatch, with a shortage of 120,000 manufacturing robot operators and a traditional mechanic unemployment rate of 7.3% [5] - Labor shortages in the construction industry have led to a 41% project delay rate, negatively impacting GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points [6] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging decision regarding interest rate cuts, with a 97.3% market expectation for a cut in October, while core CPI remains stubbornly at 3.1% [7] - The Fed's balance sheet reduction plan has been paused, and the overnight reverse repo scale has shrunk to $20 billion, indicating limited traditional monetary policy tools [7] - Political pressures may lead to the implementation of "modern monetary theory" to stimulate the economy through deficit monetization ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [7] Group 5 - Three major risk thresholds are indicated for 2026: a potential drop in savings rates for low-income households below 3%, a $1.2 trillion corporate debt maturity wave, and the lagging effects of current monetary policy adjustments [8] - If low-income household savings fall below 3% (currently at 4.1%), it could trigger a significant credit contraction, reducing GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points [8] - The widening spread of high-yield bond yields to 580 basis points indicates increasing default risks as $1.2 trillion in corporate debt matures in 2026 [8] Group 6 - The report highlights a "silent crisis" in the economy, with signs of contraction in various sectors, including a 30% budget cut in exploration by shale oil companies and hiring freezes in Silicon Valley tech firms [10] - The Beige Book reveals that the underlying growth paradigm is under threat, as noted by the San Francisco Fed President, who remarked on the economic machinery beginning to rust [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the potential for a massive sell-off of US dollars, estimated at up to $2.5 trillion, is increasing as Asian countries reduce their dollar reserves due to trade tensions and a shift in investment strategies [1] - Asian investors are significantly withdrawing from the US dollar, leading to a new investment theme of "sell America, buy Asia," which has resulted in a strong appreciation of Asian currencies and a decline in the US dollar index [1] - The structural break in the external financing chain caused by US tariffs is leading to a significant reduction in capital inflows into the US, impacting trade and investment dynamics [1] Group 2 - The US faces a daunting debt situation, with $10.8 trillion in maturing debt this year, including $6 trillion maturing in June, prompting the government to consider tax increases to alleviate fiscal pressure [3] - Trump's aggressive tax policies have led to market panic, with significant drops in the stock market and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could undermine the credibility of the US dollar [3] - The ongoing trade war and rising tariffs have not revitalized US manufacturing but have instead contributed to a "stagflation spiral," with core PCE inflation rising to 4.2% [3] Group 3 - Despite the US dollar accounting for 60% of global foreign exchange reserves, trust in the currency is eroding due to erratic tariff policies and political interference in the Federal Reserve [5] - Countries like Japan are selling off US Treasuries to intervene in their currency markets, while Saudi Arabia is considering settling oil transactions in yuan, indicating a shift towards "de-dollarization" [5] - Analysts suggest that the US dollar is overvalued by 20%, and the high debt-to-GDP ratio of 123% along with a growing trade deficit is straining global confidence in the currency [5] Group 4 - China's gold reserves have increased to 73.77 million ounces, reflecting a growing trend in gold investment as a response to economic uncertainty and diversification of investment channels [7] - Investment strategies in gold, such as using gold ETFs and dollar-cost averaging, are recommended to mitigate short-term volatility while monitoring macroeconomic indicators [7] - Future gold price movements are contingent on the US economic outlook, with potential upward trends if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, while a recession could lead to a temporary decline in gold prices [7]